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I'm so torn on if I should buy APPL. They have a Nike/Coke kind of grip on the market. But that kind of stuff can flip on a dime if Apple begins to be 'not coo

I'm so torn on if I should buy APPL. They have a Nike/Coke kind of grip on the market. But that kind of stuff can flip on a dime if Apple begins to be 'not cool'. They have survived releasing bad products(butterfly keyboards and bad antennas). They survived from being the cool thing young adults use and migrated over to the phone your mom uses. I really can't see any obstacles for their domination of the Veblen good tech market. And that market is incredibly profitable, where Asus has significantly tighter margins. I'll probably end up buying some total market ETF since even 100k in a good performing Apple is only ~7-15% per year, 7k-15k... but the risk is insane. Even when I bought Google after the Bard PR flop, I still only made a 10% return in 2 months, and I probably had heart palpitations doing it.

gmm1990 3y ago
Might be longer term but I think the new macbook pros don't have the same quality feel as the old ones. I got new airpod pros and the new case feels cheap to me. Very small signal against and longer term. The vision pro could be a new iphone. I still think the valuation is crazy but thats a problem with most tech imo.
- kitsunesoba 3y ago
  > Might be longer term but I think the new macbook pros don't have the same quality feel as the old ones. “Old ones” being? I used to own a 2015 15” MBP and currently have both a 2017 15” MBP and 16” M1 Max MBP and they feel equally quality to me, with the main difference being that the M1 model has more empty space in its case due to its increased thickness, which is a tradeoff I’m more than happy to make because it allows for cooling that doesn’t struggle.
  - gmm1990 3y ago
    I think the 2017 ones would be the old ones. I'm not sure when the change to the case happened. I'm talking about the current 14" ones with the more rounded corners vs the version that was more folio like.
chad_c 3y ago
Don't take investment advice from strangers and all that, but... I bought a single share of AAPL in 1/2008. Then another share in 10/2008. I slowly expanded my investment as it split. It's the second-highest performing stock or fund I've owned over that 15yr period ($TSLA is the highest). $AAPL pays a dividend. Reinvest the dividends and go long.
- eddieroger 3y ago
  Piling on, because not taking internet strangers' advice is good advice itself, but I was told one "buy what you use." If you like Apple and their products and believe in the company, own part of it. This isn't good advice in a silo, because it doesn't make a full portfolio, but I have stuck to it since I started investing and it's been generally good advice.
  - chad_c 3y ago
    I didn't know this was an investment philosophy when I started investing, but it's exactly the approach I've taken!
senttoschool 3y ago
Let's ignore the mature US market for a second. In developing countries, it's a prerequisite to have iPhones if you want to be viewed as high class. Period. But iPhone penetration is very low in these countries. This means there's only one way to go for Apple in these countries; up. Apple's brand is incredible around the world.
Panzer04 3y ago
IMO APPL has much more downside risk than upside benefit at this price. Yes, they have a locked-in consumer customer base, but they are very much resting on their laurels. That would be fine, but not at this kind of multiple, in my opinion. Too much risk of them becoming "uncool", no longer the default choice, increasingly less frenetic phone upgrade cycles, etc. They have very strong competition on the hardware side as well IMO, especially with the rise of folding phones and the like offering something that you simply can't get with apple. Of course, they can always produce one, but..
adamlett 3y ago
Here are a couple of things to consider, to help you determine if you should buy $APPL or not: * Do you think the stock is currently undervalued? If yes, at what price would you consider it to be fairly valued? Overvalued? * Can you afford to lose the money? * Is there another investment opportunity that offers a better risk/reward ratio? It doesn't matter if you are correct in your assessment of Apple's continued dominance of their market if most investors agree with you, because then that assessment is already baked into the price of the stock. The only way to beat market is to take a contrarian position and be right. If your goal is not to beat the market, then you should probably not be picking individual stocks.
rvz 3y ago
> I'm so torn on if I should buy APPL. More like that lots of these insiders, shareholders, etc are preparing to sell their stock once it hits magic numbers such as "$3TN market cap" or "$200 a share" as it is constantly being reported on the news again. The market is testing your psychology to jump in at those extreme prices with the retail folks just falling for it and losing money again. > Even when I bought Google after the Bard PR flop, I still only made a 10% return in 2 months, and I probably had heart palpitations doing it. Great move and not bad and one of the good opportunities to jump in after ignoring the mania. [0]. But then there was Meta that did 200% in 6 months when it was $88. Now the stock has recovered as others have noted. I and some others in [1] also ignored Meta's stock panic, bought in as low as $89 when nearly everyone was screaming about Meta going down to $0 and now people want to buy Meta stock at $290 today. Oh dear. [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34713073 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34713073 [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36452587 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36452587
gen220 3y ago
May as well consider buying Berkshire Hathaway, you get exposure to Apple that expires when they no longer think it’s a good place to park your money, which will likely be the point that you want to exit at, too.

gmm1990 3y ago

Might be longer term but I think the new macbook pros don't have the same quality feel as the old ones. I got new airpod pros and the new case feels cheap to me. Very small signal against and longer term. The vision pro could be a new iphone. I still think the valuation is crazy but thats a problem with most tech imo.

kitsunesoba 3y ago
> Might be longer term but I think the new macbook pros don't have the same quality feel as the old ones. “Old ones” being? I used to own a 2015 15” MBP and currently have both a 2017 15” MBP and 16” M1 Max MBP and they feel equally quality to me, with the main difference being that the M1 model has more empty space in its case due to its increased thickness, which is a tradeoff I’m more than happy to make because it allows for cooling that doesn’t struggle.
- gmm1990 3y ago
  I think the 2017 ones would be the old ones. I'm not sure when the change to the case happened. I'm talking about the current 14" ones with the more rounded corners vs the version that was more folio like.

chad_c 3y ago

Don't take investment advice from strangers and all that, but... I bought a single share of AAPL in 1/2008. Then another share in 10/2008. I slowly expanded my investment as it split. It's the second-highest performing stock or fund I've owned over that 15yr period ($TSLA is the highest). $AAPL pays a dividend. Reinvest the dividends and go long.

eddieroger 3y ago
Piling on, because not taking internet strangers' advice is good advice itself, but I was told one "buy what you use." If you like Apple and their products and believe in the company, own part of it. This isn't good advice in a silo, because it doesn't make a full portfolio, but I have stuck to it since I started investing and it's been generally good advice.
- chad_c 3y ago
  I didn't know this was an investment philosophy when I started investing, but it's exactly the approach I've taken!

senttoschool 3y ago

Let's ignore the mature US market for a second. In developing countries, it's a prerequisite to have iPhones if you want to be viewed as high class. Period. But iPhone penetration is very low in these countries. This means there's only one way to go for Apple in these countries; up. Apple's brand is incredible around the world.

Panzer04 3y ago

IMO APPL has much more downside risk than upside benefit at this price. Yes, they have a locked-in consumer customer base, but they are very much resting on their laurels. That would be fine, but not at this kind of multiple, in my opinion. Too much risk of them becoming "uncool", no longer the default choice, increasingly less frenetic phone upgrade cycles, etc. They have very strong competition on the hardware side as well IMO, especially with the rise of folding phones and the like offering something that you simply can't get with apple. Of course, they can always produce one, but..

adamlett 3y ago

Here are a couple of things to consider, to help you determine if you should buy $APPL or not: * Do you think the stock is currently undervalued? If yes, at what price would you consider it to be fairly valued? Overvalued? * Can you afford to lose the money? * Is there another investment opportunity that offers a better risk/reward ratio? It doesn't matter if you are correct in your assessment of Apple's continued dominance of their market if most investors agree with you, because then that assessment is already baked into the price of the stock. The only way to beat market is to take a contrarian position and be right. If your goal is not to beat the market, then you should probably not be picking individual stocks.

rvz 3y ago

> I'm so torn on if I should buy APPL. More like that lots of these insiders, shareholders, etc are preparing to sell their stock once it hits magic numbers such as "$3TN market cap" or "$200 a share" as it is constantly being reported on the news again. The market is testing your psychology to jump in at those extreme prices with the retail folks just falling for it and losing money again. > Even when I bought Google after the Bard PR flop, I still only made a 10% return in 2 months, and I probably had heart palpitations doing it. Great move and not bad and one of the good opportunities to jump in after ignoring the mania. [0]. But then there was Meta that did 200% in 6 months when it was $88. Now the stock has recovered as others have noted. I and some others in [1] also ignored Meta's stock panic, bought in as low as $89 when nearly everyone was screaming about Meta going down to $0 and now people want to buy Meta stock at $290 today. Oh dear. [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34713073 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34713073 [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36452587 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36452587

gen220 3y ago

May as well consider buying Berkshire Hathaway, you get exposure to Apple that expires when they no longer think it’s a good place to park your money, which will likely be the point that you want to exit at, too.