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The Darkness Ahead: Where the Ukraine War Is Headed

16 points by ailef 3y ago

OkayPhysicist 3y ago
Posting Russian propaganda is cringe, and sharing it is, too. Russia wiped out any gains they faced from this conflict after the initial push failed to steamroll Kyiv. By utilizing their armed forces against a conventional military capable of mounting anything more than an insurgency, Russia tipped their hand and let everybody know the military prowess the world had assumed they had was smoke and mirrors. Russia lost any chance of victory once the US decided to start offering overt aid. The US's military-industrial complex, without even wartime level ramp-up, has demonstrated the ability to keep Ukraine well enough equipped to maintain technological superiority indefinitely. Meanwhile Russia is raiding museums. The best case scenario for Russia at this point is to use their ability to prolong the conflict as a bargaining chip, possibly to keep control of Crimea. Meanwhile, the US gets an ally spitting distance from Moscow, and Russia is humiliated on the world stage. In the worst case, infighting within Moscow shatters Russia into a pile of disorganized warlord states. That's, of course, assuming the war remains conventional. If, as the author of this insipid piece suggests, a losing Moscow resorts to nuclear combat... Everybody dies. Moscow can't risk the US interpreting their nuclear strike on Ukraine as provocation of a first (second? eh) strike, so they would have to preemptively target the US. The US knows this so they would be firing everything we've got to try and knock out Russia's ability to retaliate. And we wouldn't just be hitting Russia. US doctrine says that in nuclear war, we target everybody who poses a threat. Millions of uninvolved Chinese would die. It's a shit show all around. Which is why it's a ridiculous farce of a scenario. Russia knows they lose a nuclear war, and they lose it far worse than "Oh, Moscow and its surrounding land are now a minor country", they lose it in a "Everything and everybody we ever cared about dies in nuclear fire" sort of way.
- avgcorrection 3y ago
  Posting US propaganda is cringe.
rob74 3y ago
> We are now in a war where both sides – Ukraine and the West on one side and Russia on the other – see each other as an existential threat that must be defeated. I think this is exaggerating a little bit. Ukraine (of course) "only" wants to get all its occupied territories back, which sounds reasonable. Plus reparations for the damage caused, and to join NATO to prevent this from happening again. Which would however be unacceptable for Putin, who has set off to conquer the whole of Ukraine and would end up with thousands of soldiers killed and less territory than he started out with. So, even if the goal is not "total defeat", still not going to happen...
threeseed 3y ago
> Russia will ultimately win the war No it won't. Once US provides ATACMS the war will be effectively over. Ukraine will be able to reach all corners of Crimea and the Donbas with high-precision missiles cutting off all supply lines and ground based communications. And this isn't a hypothetical situation since we've already seen what Ukraine has been doing with Storm Shadow. The only reason US hasn't ended this earlier is because it's in their interest to drag this out and cause not only a military default for Russia but also end Putins' reign. The fact that all of the West media magically found out that Surovikin was working for Wagner indicates that there is a lot of political warfare from the US as well.
- mellow-lake-day 3y ago
  >No it won't. Once US provides ATACMS the war will be effectively over. I would also add that Russia has effectively lost the war after they couldn't capture Kyiv in 3 days. Now Russia is putting off the inevitable by continuing to send Russian men to their deaths in Ukraine. Currently Russia is scraping the bottom of the barrel by using T-54/T-55 tanks: https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1674472659818520584 https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/16744726598185205... Meanwhile Ukraine is getting equipped with modern vehicles, the latest tanks, and F-16 airplanes.
- jacknews 3y ago
  "The only reason US hasn't ended this earlier is because it's in their interest to drag this out and cause not only a military default for Russia but also end Putins' reign. " I don;'t think this is a at all the 'only' reason, but it certainly stands to reason, and it is exactly what they should continue to do. pushing for a ukraine victory while putin is still in place might well trigger a 'cornered rat' response. Exhaust them, to the point that they are unable to fight on, and the regime will perhaps collapse on it's own.
- lisasays 3y ago
  The only reason US hasn't ended this earlier is because it's in their interest to drag this out You can have fun believing made-up stuff if you want. Meanwhile, there are far-more obvious and pragmatic factors involved. These systems need to be re-engineered somewhat, and tracking systems put in place to ensure the Ukrainians don't do what they're not supposed to do. And other reasons. But again, you seem to have made up your mind about what you want to believe.
FreshStart 3y ago
Moscow mearsheimer.. Another Putin propaganda distributor pretending to be an academic. He has been totally wrong so far, including predicting there would be no war. So why give him more credit at the bank of public debate? It's just another troll..
- avgcorrection 3y ago
  He was correct about where things were headed in his 2015 lecture.[1] He’s also as pro-America as you would expect any American in that academic field to be. He’s just coming at it from a Realist perspective. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4
  - mellow-lake-day 3y ago
    He fails to mention that the protestors were killed by sniper fire by Yanukovych He also treats the fake referendum conducted by Russia after Russia seized Crimea as matter of fact despite it being completely fake and made up He has an extremely biased view which is 100% inline with Russian propaganda and not shared by anybody in the West
    - ailef 3y ago
      > He fails to mention that the protestors were killed by sniper fire by Yanukovych There's no conclusive proof that this is what happened. No official investigation has taken place (or has been concluded) and Ukrainian authorities have shown time and again that there was no political will to really discover how the events unfolded. (Ukrainian authorities have also been "reprimanded" for this lack of investigation by the EU or UNHCR, can't remember now and I don't have time to look for a source). There are several alternative reconstructions of the events, for example the one by Ivan Katchanovski[1] which has also published several hours of original footage on his YouTube channel[2]. I would suggest anyone with an open mind to take a look at those. I would be really wary of making unsubstantiated claims like those on events that are this controversial. [1] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2658245 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2658245 [2] https://www.youtube.com/@IvanKatchanovskiPhD https://www.youtube.com/@IvanKatchanovskiPhD
armitron 3y ago
[flagged]
- threeseed 3y ago
  And when is this dust going to settle exactly. There are reports of serious infighting between Russian FSB and MoD. Just days after Wagner demonstrated clearly they could take Moscow if they wanted to.
  - armitron 3y ago
    Pretty sure based on what you're writing that the reality I'm perceiving is quite different from yours. The only thing the Wagner event demonstrated is the lightning-quick reflexes of the Russian decisionmakers and their absolute stranglehold on power. Things are looking ever more grim for Ukraine and the Ukrainian people (who at the end of the day are really those that suffer/will suffer the most).
    - kokken 3y ago
      Useful idiot or paid troll? That’s what any reasonable person will wonder when reading this diatribe divorced from reality
      - avgcorrection 3y ago
        If it’s so “reasonable” then why do you need to point it out?
    - _kbh_ 3y ago
      > Pretty sure based on what you're writing that the reality I'm perceiving is quite different from yours. The only thing the Wagner event demonstrated is the lightning-quick reflexes of the Russian decisionmakers and their absolute stranglehold on power. The days Wagner marched on Moscow were literally the worst day for the Russian airforce in something like 50 years. They lost something like 6 aircraft in a single day, with something along the lines of 12 airmen. > Things are looking ever more grim for Ukraine and the Ukrainian people (who at the end of the day are really those that suffer/will suffer the most). I don't see how things look even more grim for Ukraine? theres fights going on in the Russian MoD, top generals are missing rumoured to be under house arrest. A PMC took over a town and got 200km from Moscow with only something like 8k troops. It makes it look like Russia is entirely unable to defend its own borders, and like Putin has partially lost control.
poisonborz 3y ago
> NATO marched eastward, which eventually provoked the Russians to launch a preventive war. How can this be a convincing argument in the 21st century?
- ailef 3y ago
  Look at the reactions in the US to the story that came up just a few weeks ago about a possible Chinese "spy base" in Cuba. Cuba being a sovereign state and all, I'll let you draw the parallelism yourself...
  - threeseed 3y ago
    There has been a Chinese spy base in Cuba for years now. And remind me who forced Finland and Sweden to join NATO just a few months ago ? Sure seems like they did this on their own volition given it passed their parliamentary processes.
  - 2-718-281-828 3y ago
    but that's whataboutism /s
  - _kbh_ 3y ago
    > Look at the reactions in the US to the story that came up just a few weeks ago about a possible Chinese "spy base" in Cuba. Cuba being a sovereign state and all, I'll let you draw the parallelism yourself... Theres been a Chinese spy base in Cuba for two years at this point, and yet no invasion. Russia has had its border with NATO extended greatly by this war, by Finland joining, and yet no war with Finland.
- avgcorrection 3y ago
  It doesn’t make sense to 21st century people. So-called Balance of Power Politics doesn’t make sense to the 21st century mindset—only to the 19th century mindset. (In his 2015 lecture he contrasted 21st century people (the Washington Establishment) with 19th century people (people like himself and “the Chinese”).) Basically the West including USA and some others promised that NATO would not “move one inch” eastward in return for German unification. That was under Gorbachev. That was only an oral agreement though and funnily enough Gorbachev now has denied that such an agreement was made… not that it matters that much, really.
varcache 3y ago
This is just plain spreading pro-Russian narrative, while Russia plans to commit yet another disaster, this time nuclear one. Guess that will be just another bullet point on pathetic "NATO made me do this" bingo menu.
antisthenes 3y ago
Can someone run a GPT summarize on the article and post key points?
- lisasays 3y ago
  Does it matter? Like everything else this guy has put out in regard to this conflict -- it's just pure mindfuck, right from the first paragraph. That said - it's very adroitly written and well-organized mindfuck, and it's very easy to skim the points it's trying to make, and really - you'd be doing yourself a disservice by letting yourself become too reliable on GPT. Or even worse -- on having other people run it through GPT for you.

16 points by ailef 3y ago

Posting Russian propaganda is cringe, and sharing it is, too. Russia wiped out any gains they faced from this conflict after the initial push failed to steamroll Kyiv. By utilizing their armed forces against a conventional military capable of mounting anything more than an insurgency, Russia tipped their hand and let everybody know the military prowess the world had assumed they had was smoke and mirrors. Russia lost any chance of victory once the US decided to start offering overt aid. The US's military-industrial complex, without even wartime level ramp-up, has demonstrated the ability to keep Ukraine well enough equipped to maintain technological superiority indefinitely. Meanwhile Russia is raiding museums. The best case scenario for Russia at this point is to use their ability to prolong the conflict as a bargaining chip, possibly to keep control of Crimea. Meanwhile, the US gets an ally spitting distance from Moscow, and Russia is humiliated on the world stage. In the worst case, infighting within Moscow shatters Russia into a pile of disorganized warlord states. That's, of course, assuming the war remains conventional. If, as the author of this insipid piece suggests, a losing Moscow resorts to nuclear combat... Everybody dies. Moscow can't risk the US interpreting their nuclear strike on Ukraine as provocation of a first (second? eh) strike, so they would have to preemptively target the US. The US knows this so they would be firing everything we've got to try and knock out Russia's ability to retaliate. And we wouldn't just be hitting Russia. US doctrine says that in nuclear war, we target everybody who poses a threat. Millions of uninvolved Chinese would die. It's a shit show all around. Which is why it's a ridiculous farce of a scenario. Russia knows they lose a nuclear war, and they lose it far worse than "Oh, Moscow and its surrounding land are now a minor country", they lose it in a "Everything and everybody we ever cared about dies in nuclear fire" sort of way.

avgcorrection 3y ago
Posting US propaganda is cringe.

rob74 3y ago

> We are now in a war where both sides – Ukraine and the West on one side and Russia on the other – see each other as an existential threat that must be defeated. I think this is exaggerating a little bit. Ukraine (of course) "only" wants to get all its occupied territories back, which sounds reasonable. Plus reparations for the damage caused, and to join NATO to prevent this from happening again. Which would however be unacceptable for Putin, who has set off to conquer the whole of Ukraine and would end up with thousands of soldiers killed and less territory than he started out with. So, even if the goal is not "total defeat", still not going to happen...

threeseed 3y ago

> Russia will ultimately win the war No it won't. Once US provides ATACMS the war will be effectively over. Ukraine will be able to reach all corners of Crimea and the Donbas with high-precision missiles cutting off all supply lines and ground based communications. And this isn't a hypothetical situation since we've already seen what Ukraine has been doing with Storm Shadow. The only reason US hasn't ended this earlier is because it's in their interest to drag this out and cause not only a military default for Russia but also end Putins' reign. The fact that all of the West media magically found out that Surovikin was working for Wagner indicates that there is a lot of political warfare from the US as well.

mellow-lake-day 3y ago
>No it won't. Once US provides ATACMS the war will be effectively over. I would also add that Russia has effectively lost the war after they couldn't capture Kyiv in 3 days. Now Russia is putting off the inevitable by continuing to send Russian men to their deaths in Ukraine. Currently Russia is scraping the bottom of the barrel by using T-54/T-55 tanks: https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1674472659818520584 https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/16744726598185205... Meanwhile Ukraine is getting equipped with modern vehicles, the latest tanks, and F-16 airplanes.
jacknews 3y ago
"The only reason US hasn't ended this earlier is because it's in their interest to drag this out and cause not only a military default for Russia but also end Putins' reign. " I don;'t think this is a at all the 'only' reason, but it certainly stands to reason, and it is exactly what they should continue to do. pushing for a ukraine victory while putin is still in place might well trigger a 'cornered rat' response. Exhaust them, to the point that they are unable to fight on, and the regime will perhaps collapse on it's own.
lisasays 3y ago
The only reason US hasn't ended this earlier is because it's in their interest to drag this out You can have fun believing made-up stuff if you want. Meanwhile, there are far-more obvious and pragmatic factors involved. These systems need to be re-engineered somewhat, and tracking systems put in place to ensure the Ukrainians don't do what they're not supposed to do. And other reasons. But again, you seem to have made up your mind about what you want to believe.

FreshStart 3y ago

Moscow mearsheimer.. Another Putin propaganda distributor pretending to be an academic. He has been totally wrong so far, including predicting there would be no war. So why give him more credit at the bank of public debate? It's just another troll..

avgcorrection 3y ago
He was correct about where things were headed in his 2015 lecture.[1] He’s also as pro-America as you would expect any American in that academic field to be. He’s just coming at it from a Realist perspective. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4
- mellow-lake-day 3y ago
  He fails to mention that the protestors were killed by sniper fire by Yanukovych He also treats the fake referendum conducted by Russia after Russia seized Crimea as matter of fact despite it being completely fake and made up He has an extremely biased view which is 100% inline with Russian propaganda and not shared by anybody in the West
  - ailef 3y ago
    > He fails to mention that the protestors were killed by sniper fire by Yanukovych There's no conclusive proof that this is what happened. No official investigation has taken place (or has been concluded) and Ukrainian authorities have shown time and again that there was no political will to really discover how the events unfolded. (Ukrainian authorities have also been "reprimanded" for this lack of investigation by the EU or UNHCR, can't remember now and I don't have time to look for a source). There are several alternative reconstructions of the events, for example the one by Ivan Katchanovski[1] which has also published several hours of original footage on his YouTube channel[2]. I would suggest anyone with an open mind to take a look at those. I would be really wary of making unsubstantiated claims like those on events that are this controversial. [1] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2658245 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2658245 [2] https://www.youtube.com/@IvanKatchanovskiPhD https://www.youtube.com/@IvanKatchanovskiPhD

armitron 3y ago

[flagged]

threeseed 3y ago
And when is this dust going to settle exactly. There are reports of serious infighting between Russian FSB and MoD. Just days after Wagner demonstrated clearly they could take Moscow if they wanted to.
- armitron 3y ago
  Pretty sure based on what you're writing that the reality I'm perceiving is quite different from yours. The only thing the Wagner event demonstrated is the lightning-quick reflexes of the Russian decisionmakers and their absolute stranglehold on power. Things are looking ever more grim for Ukraine and the Ukrainian people (who at the end of the day are really those that suffer/will suffer the most).
  - kokken 3y ago
    Useful idiot or paid troll? That’s what any reasonable person will wonder when reading this diatribe divorced from reality
    - avgcorrection 3y ago
      If it’s so “reasonable” then why do you need to point it out?
  - _kbh_ 3y ago
    > Pretty sure based on what you're writing that the reality I'm perceiving is quite different from yours. The only thing the Wagner event demonstrated is the lightning-quick reflexes of the Russian decisionmakers and their absolute stranglehold on power. The days Wagner marched on Moscow were literally the worst day for the Russian airforce in something like 50 years. They lost something like 6 aircraft in a single day, with something along the lines of 12 airmen. > Things are looking ever more grim for Ukraine and the Ukrainian people (who at the end of the day are really those that suffer/will suffer the most). I don't see how things look even more grim for Ukraine? theres fights going on in the Russian MoD, top generals are missing rumoured to be under house arrest. A PMC took over a town and got 200km from Moscow with only something like 8k troops. It makes it look like Russia is entirely unable to defend its own borders, and like Putin has partially lost control.

poisonborz 3y ago

> NATO marched eastward, which eventually provoked the Russians to launch a preventive war. How can this be a convincing argument in the 21st century?

ailef 3y ago
Look at the reactions in the US to the story that came up just a few weeks ago about a possible Chinese "spy base" in Cuba. Cuba being a sovereign state and all, I'll let you draw the parallelism yourself...
- threeseed 3y ago
  There has been a Chinese spy base in Cuba for years now. And remind me who forced Finland and Sweden to join NATO just a few months ago ? Sure seems like they did this on their own volition given it passed their parliamentary processes.
- 2-718-281-828 3y ago
  but that's whataboutism /s
- _kbh_ 3y ago
  > Look at the reactions in the US to the story that came up just a few weeks ago about a possible Chinese "spy base" in Cuba. Cuba being a sovereign state and all, I'll let you draw the parallelism yourself... Theres been a Chinese spy base in Cuba for two years at this point, and yet no invasion. Russia has had its border with NATO extended greatly by this war, by Finland joining, and yet no war with Finland.
avgcorrection 3y ago
It doesn’t make sense to 21st century people. So-called Balance of Power Politics doesn’t make sense to the 21st century mindset—only to the 19th century mindset. (In his 2015 lecture he contrasted 21st century people (the Washington Establishment) with 19th century people (people like himself and “the Chinese”).) Basically the West including USA and some others promised that NATO would not “move one inch” eastward in return for German unification. That was under Gorbachev. That was only an oral agreement though and funnily enough Gorbachev now has denied that such an agreement was made… not that it matters that much, really.

varcache 3y ago

This is just plain spreading pro-Russian narrative, while Russia plans to commit yet another disaster, this time nuclear one. Guess that will be just another bullet point on pathetic "NATO made me do this" bingo menu.

antisthenes 3y ago

Can someone run a GPT summarize on the article and post key points?

lisasays 3y ago
Does it matter? Like everything else this guy has put out in regard to this conflict -- it's just pure mindfuck, right from the first paragraph. That said - it's very adroitly written and well-organized mindfuck, and it's very easy to skim the points it's trying to make, and really - you'd be doing yourself a disservice by letting yourself become too reliable on GPT. Or even worse -- on having other people run it through GPT for you.