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That’s strange because the 2022 deficit alone exceeds defense spending by a factor of ~2. DoD spending was up ~10% since 2012, which social security spending wa

That’s strange because the 2022 deficit alone exceeds defense spending by a factor of ~2. DoD spending was up ~10% since 2012, which social security spending was up ~50%.

HWR_14 3y ago
Social Security spending is from a dedicated levy, which generates more income than it costs. In 2012, the US was fighting two wars, so the fact that DoD spending didn't go down by 2022 is indicative of the problem. It's also misleading to use the few years when there was substantial pandemic related spending as indicative of the US's normal spending habits.
- semiquaver 3y ago
  > Social Security spending is from a dedicated levy, which generates more income than it costs Your information is out of date. Costs have exceeded tax income since 2010 and have exceeded total income (tax plus interest) since 2021. The OASI trust fund that pays social security retirement benefits is projected to have a $53B (3.8%) actuarial shortfall this year, up from $40B last year. The trustees project this shortfall will increase every year thereafter until the fund is completely depleted ten years from now (assuming no change in law) https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TRSUM/tr23summary.pdf https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TRSUM/tr23summary.pdf To become solvent over 75 years the SS tax rate would need to be increased by 27.7%, from 12.4% today to 15.84%. Eliminating the payroll cap (currently $160K) would buy 25 years, but only if the corresponding benefit cap was not also raised. https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2023/tr2023.pdf https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2023/tr2023.pdf
  - HWR_14 3y ago
    Do your numbers still hold with the vastly higher interest rates today compared to 2021?
    - semiquaver 3y ago
      Yes, those numbers are all from the document I linked, the most recent annual report released in March. Social Security (OASDI) is not very sensitive to inflation since the salary cap on contributions is indexed to average wages and adjusts yearly. The benefits paid out are also adjusted by periodic cost of living adjustments. So when inflation goes up both contributions and withdrawals rise by roughly equal amounts.

That’s strange because the 2022 deficit alone exceeds defense spending by a factor of ~2. DoD spending was up ~10% since 2012, which social security spending was up ~50%.

HWR_14 3y ago

Social Security spending is from a dedicated levy, which generates more income than it costs. In 2012, the US was fighting two wars, so the fact that DoD spending didn't go down by 2022 is indicative of the problem. It's also misleading to use the few years when there was substantial pandemic related spending as indicative of the US's normal spending habits.

semiquaver 3y ago
> Social Security spending is from a dedicated levy, which generates more income than it costs Your information is out of date. Costs have exceeded tax income since 2010 and have exceeded total income (tax plus interest) since 2021. The OASI trust fund that pays social security retirement benefits is projected to have a $53B (3.8%) actuarial shortfall this year, up from $40B last year. The trustees project this shortfall will increase every year thereafter until the fund is completely depleted ten years from now (assuming no change in law) https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TRSUM/tr23summary.pdf https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TRSUM/tr23summary.pdf To become solvent over 75 years the SS tax rate would need to be increased by 27.7%, from 12.4% today to 15.84%. Eliminating the payroll cap (currently $160K) would buy 25 years, but only if the corresponding benefit cap was not also raised. https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2023/tr2023.pdf https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2023/tr2023.pdf
- HWR_14 3y ago
  Do your numbers still hold with the vastly higher interest rates today compared to 2021?
  - semiquaver 3y ago
    Yes, those numbers are all from the document I linked, the most recent annual report released in March. Social Security (OASDI) is not very sensitive to inflation since the salary cap on contributions is indexed to average wages and adjusts yearly. The benefits paid out are also adjusted by periodic cost of living adjustments. So when inflation goes up both contributions and withdrawals rise by roughly equal amounts.