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The point is that with a constant amount of assaults, and fewer potential victims, you are more likely to be a victim.
by jb12 3y ago
The point is that with a constant amount of assaults, and fewer potential victims, you are more likely to be a victim.
- jonathankoren 3y agoOnly if you assume random victims of assault. That’s a pretty big assumption
- cscurmudgeon 3y agoHow is this not probabilistic victim blaming?
- 22c 3y agoI don't think it's victim blaming, it's a valid point. Are you more likely to be shot on the streets of Chicago compared to Boise? Probably, yes, however you're MUCH more likely to get shot on the streets of Chicago if you're involved in gang related activities. There are probably similar qualifiers for assault on the BART.
- cscurmudgeon 3y ago> There are probably similar qualifiers for assault on the BART. No, not really. Unless you have data to back that up. Source: I was assaulted outside a BART station randomly. One more data point: > Rojas added, "It looks like it was an unprovoked, unwarranted, vicious attack." https://abc7news.com/bart-stabbing-arrest-john-cowell-lee-oakland/3812465/ https://abc7news.com/bart-stabbing-arrest-john-cowell-lee-oa... One more https://www.bart.gov/news/articles/2018/news20180408 https://www.bart.gov/news/articles/2018/news20180408
- 22c 3y agoNobody is saying that there are no random assaults, they are saying that without data on what percentage of the attacks were completely random, we can't make assumptions that an increase in total number of assaults equates to an increase in total number of random assaults.
- cscurmudgeon 3y ago> Are you more likely to be shot on the streets of Chicago compared to Boise? Probably, yes, however you're MUCH more likely to get shot on the streets of Chicago if you're involved in gang related activities. You made the argument that attacks are targeted using an analogy without having data.
- 22c 3y agoI am not arguing that the increase of assaults on the BART are targeted. I am arguing that that without data to prove it, we are making an assumption by saying that an increase in the number of assaults on the BART means that you are more likely to be a victim of assault as a random commuter on the BART. I used an analogy of Chicago shootings because these numbers are well understood, I suspect the BART numbers are not as well understood (most of what either of us can find are anecdotes). The logical fallacy here is the fallacy of composition. We've only been given the statistics as they relate to ALL riders of the BART (of which "random commuters" only comprise some portion of ALL riders of the BART). We can't draw conclusions about the likelihood of assault against commuters based on this data alone.
- rexkwondo 3y agoI rode BART for 16 years. It's not a big assumption.
- mcpackieh 3y agoRight, people with small statures who look like pushovers will face a disproportionate amount of the abuse. Big mean looking guys like me usually don't have much to fear, but why should anybody have to put up with it just because they're small and meek?