4 ms·

The article is pretty spot on. It is the very fundamental structure of Europe that will never let it be a sovereign force ala US. Europe in the end was an Amer

The article is pretty spot on. It is the very fundamental structure of Europe that will never let it be a sovereign force ala US. Europe in the end was an American project and is simply untenable without US support, granted US had its own goals in supporting the Marshall plan. It’s too good to be under the U.S. security umbrella. Expect more fissures as US-China relations get worse, Europe won’t take the path we would want it to. I would add that there is a middle ground, Europe need not be a vassal, it can at the very least build up militarily to defend itself. But the larger trend is clear Europe is no longer the priority.

SideburnsOfDoom 3y ago
> It is the very fundamental structure of Europe that will never let it be a sovereign force ala US. I don't know if it's that simple. I think that European thinking has in the last 6 years or so realised much more that 1) a serious war can happen again in in their neighbourhood and 2) the USA's leadership cannot be relied on to be on their side, as much as was assumed before then. The article talks about "a distracted and politically unreliable America ... a growing awareness that continuing to rely on the United States entails long-term risks" More EU military spending - rearmament - is the obvious conclusion. The article claims that this hasn't been achieved. Ok it wasn't expected to be quick or easy. I don't really know what the evidence is that it can't or won't happen.
- TMWNN 3y ago
  >politically unreliable America In other words, an America that isn't guaranteed to do all the heavy lifting in European defense while Europeans sit back and criticize
  - SideburnsOfDoom 3y ago
    No, in other words, an America that isn't guaranteed to be on the same side: opposed to dictators and warmongers.
    - TMWNN 3y ago
      If opposing "dictators and warmongers" is so important, why were European NATO members so unprepared for the 2022 war? Poland, the Baltics, and other ex-Warsaw Pact countries by and large did their best to wean themselves off the Russian oil and gas teat they fed from during the Cold War, even while Germany and other far wealthier countries did their best to suckle ever more from the same teat. Since energy is fungible, the far higher prices they are now having to pay affect them and the rest of the world, even those like the US and UK that never relied on Russian energy themselves, but at least Poland and the Baltics tried their best. It's also entirely possible that greater European investment in defense might have dissuaded Russia from the February invasion. Or, at the least, be able to contribute now more than the relatively paltry sums and supplies they have so far sent. Again, the ex-Communist countries by and large both met the 2% GDP spending guideline that their far wealthier NATO fellow members have mostly ignored, and are sending as much gear as they can without endangering their own defense. Sweden and Finland's militaries were and are far better prepared than the average NATO member despite (or, perhaps, because of) not being part of the alliance. Consider two moments five years ago: 1) Trump and NATO secretary-general and former Norwegian PM Jens Stoltenberg argue on camera (video <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vpwkdmwui3k https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vpwkdmwui3k>, article <https://pbs.org/newshour/politics/at-nato-trump-says-germany-is-totally-controlled-by-russia https://pbs.org/newshour/politics/at-nato-trump-says-germany...>) about dependence on Russia. Who turned out to be right? Who turned out to be completely, totally, 100% wrong? 2) Trump at the UN warns that Germany is endangering itself by increasing dependence on Russia. German envoys laugh <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FfJv9QYrlwgepe https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FfJv9QYrlwgepe>, including foreign minister Heiko Maas. Who was right, Trump or the Germans? Both incidents got much coverage in the US and European press, with the usual bien-pensants describing them as yet another example of Trumpian foolishness versus the sensible Europeans. Had the sensible Europeans listened to the Trumpian foolishness even five years ago, Europe would now be secure against Russian threats. Germany (and thus Europe) would not have faced an existential threat to its economy and industry from 1000-2500% rises in gas bills. This is the greatest bungling by German and Europeans in 75 years and, again, it is 100% self-inflicted. (This is now where the same bien-pensants' sycophants now pull out the "Even a broken clock is right twice a day"/"Trump said everything about anything so was bound to get something right"/"Trump also said uncomplimentary things about NATO so should have been arrested as a traitor" canards. And yes, I've seen all three responses, almost word for word, when I point to the above videos.) From this American's perspective, if the only accepted definition of "opposition to dictators and warmongers" is, as I said, an America that does all the heavy lifting in European defense while Europeans sit back and criticize, don't be surprised if America isn't so quick the next time to oppose dictators and warmongers on Europe's doorstep.
riku_iki 3y ago
Europe has strong enough industrial base and educated hardworking population to rebuild modern military and don't be afraid of russia, and also reduce dependence on energy import. They just didn't push in that direction for the last 30 years and now need to work harder to catch up.
sottol 3y ago
Sure Europe was rebuilt by the Allies, but the wars cost the Germans dearly and most did not want the situation to repeat. And up until recently the economy was going quite well, gave people other things to focus on. Standard of living improved, lives were good, why not let the US keep the reigns. With economic growth slowing since ~2005 and the popular parties losing ground to more nationalistic parties like the AfD, I think there will be a stronger sense of nationalism in Germany and imo Germany was one of the great moderators so far. With that also comes discontent with many US positions and many in Europe feel the US is unfairly pushing their policies and agendas (through, ironically, unfair international treaties, like those the last administration tore up).
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SideburnsOfDoom 3y ago
> Europe in the end was an American project and is simply untenable without US support I think this mixes up past and present. "Europe (in the 1940s) was an American project" is not something worth arguing the import of. But "and (today the EU) is simply untenable without US support" something that doesn't seem sensible. Why do you say that? Do you mean the the EU would ... collapse if the US pulled out? Of where?
- candiodari 3y ago
  The same reason every other political union that can't physically/militarily defend itself collapses. It would be made to collapse by external forces.
- seatac76 3y ago
  Perhaps I should have been clearer. I meant the EU, not Europe the people/culture collective. And I certainly wasn’t referencing to a collapse or something, I hope it never comes to that. I don’t think there is a lot of clarity on where EU is headed and yes losing US support may well be catastrophic. It’s a hypothetical for sure but Europe increasingly faces threats to its industry (from China primarily, and some U.S. policies) and also military threats from Russia. It’s unlikely Europe can navigate this without US support and moderations between European countries as the article states.
  - SideburnsOfDoom 3y ago
    I think that we can agree that Europe (in particular the EU) is facing a awake-up call and must pull together in defence and other matters.

SideburnsOfDoom 3y ago

> It is the very fundamental structure of Europe that will never let it be a sovereign force ala US. I don't know if it's that simple. I think that European thinking has in the last 6 years or so realised much more that 1) a serious war can happen again in in their neighbourhood and 2) the USA's leadership cannot be relied on to be on their side, as much as was assumed before then. The article talks about "a distracted and politically unreliable America ... a growing awareness that continuing to rely on the United States entails long-term risks" More EU military spending - rearmament - is the obvious conclusion. The article claims that this hasn't been achieved. Ok it wasn't expected to be quick or easy. I don't really know what the evidence is that it can't or won't happen.

TMWNN 3y ago
>politically unreliable America In other words, an America that isn't guaranteed to do all the heavy lifting in European defense while Europeans sit back and criticize
- SideburnsOfDoom 3y ago
  No, in other words, an America that isn't guaranteed to be on the same side: opposed to dictators and warmongers.
  - TMWNN 3y ago
    If opposing "dictators and warmongers" is so important, why were European NATO members so unprepared for the 2022 war? Poland, the Baltics, and other ex-Warsaw Pact countries by and large did their best to wean themselves off the Russian oil and gas teat they fed from during the Cold War, even while Germany and other far wealthier countries did their best to suckle ever more from the same teat. Since energy is fungible, the far higher prices they are now having to pay affect them and the rest of the world, even those like the US and UK that never relied on Russian energy themselves, but at least Poland and the Baltics tried their best. It's also entirely possible that greater European investment in defense might have dissuaded Russia from the February invasion. Or, at the least, be able to contribute now more than the relatively paltry sums and supplies they have so far sent. Again, the ex-Communist countries by and large both met the 2% GDP spending guideline that their far wealthier NATO fellow members have mostly ignored, and are sending as much gear as they can without endangering their own defense. Sweden and Finland's militaries were and are far better prepared than the average NATO member despite (or, perhaps, because of) not being part of the alliance. Consider two moments five years ago: 1) Trump and NATO secretary-general and former Norwegian PM Jens Stoltenberg argue on camera (video <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vpwkdmwui3k https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vpwkdmwui3k>, article <https://pbs.org/newshour/politics/at-nato-trump-says-germany-is-totally-controlled-by-russia https://pbs.org/newshour/politics/at-nato-trump-says-germany...>) about dependence on Russia. Who turned out to be right? Who turned out to be completely, totally, 100% wrong? 2) Trump at the UN warns that Germany is endangering itself by increasing dependence on Russia. German envoys laugh <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FfJv9QYrlwgepe https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FfJv9QYrlwgepe>, including foreign minister Heiko Maas. Who was right, Trump or the Germans? Both incidents got much coverage in the US and European press, with the usual bien-pensants describing them as yet another example of Trumpian foolishness versus the sensible Europeans. Had the sensible Europeans listened to the Trumpian foolishness even five years ago, Europe would now be secure against Russian threats. Germany (and thus Europe) would not have faced an existential threat to its economy and industry from 1000-2500% rises in gas bills. This is the greatest bungling by German and Europeans in 75 years and, again, it is 100% self-inflicted. (This is now where the same bien-pensants' sycophants now pull out the "Even a broken clock is right twice a day"/"Trump said everything about anything so was bound to get something right"/"Trump also said uncomplimentary things about NATO so should have been arrested as a traitor" canards. And yes, I've seen all three responses, almost word for word, when I point to the above videos.) From this American's perspective, if the only accepted definition of "opposition to dictators and warmongers" is, as I said, an America that does all the heavy lifting in European defense while Europeans sit back and criticize, don't be surprised if America isn't so quick the next time to oppose dictators and warmongers on Europe's doorstep.

riku_iki 3y ago

Europe has strong enough industrial base and educated hardworking population to rebuild modern military and don't be afraid of russia, and also reduce dependence on energy import. They just didn't push in that direction for the last 30 years and now need to work harder to catch up.

sottol 3y ago

Sure Europe was rebuilt by the Allies, but the wars cost the Germans dearly and most did not want the situation to repeat. And up until recently the economy was going quite well, gave people other things to focus on. Standard of living improved, lives were good, why not let the US keep the reigns. With economic growth slowing since ~2005 and the popular parties losing ground to more nationalistic parties like the AfD, I think there will be a stronger sense of nationalism in Germany and imo Germany was one of the great moderators so far. With that also comes discontent with many US positions and many in Europe feel the US is unfairly pushing their policies and agendas (through, ironically, unfair international treaties, like those the last administration tore up).

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SideburnsOfDoom 3y ago

> Europe in the end was an American project and is simply untenable without US support I think this mixes up past and present. "Europe (in the 1940s) was an American project" is not something worth arguing the import of. But "and (today the EU) is simply untenable without US support" something that doesn't seem sensible. Why do you say that? Do you mean the the EU would ... collapse if the US pulled out? Of where?

candiodari 3y ago
The same reason every other political union that can't physically/militarily defend itself collapses. It would be made to collapse by external forces.
seatac76 3y ago
Perhaps I should have been clearer. I meant the EU, not Europe the people/culture collective. And I certainly wasn’t referencing to a collapse or something, I hope it never comes to that. I don’t think there is a lot of clarity on where EU is headed and yes losing US support may well be catastrophic. It’s a hypothetical for sure but Europe increasingly faces threats to its industry (from China primarily, and some U.S. policies) and also military threats from Russia. It’s unlikely Europe can navigate this without US support and moderations between European countries as the article states.
- SideburnsOfDoom 3y ago
  I think that we can agree that Europe (in particular the EU) is facing a awake-up call and must pull together in defence and other matters.