4 ms·

Statistics matter, anecdotes do not.

by RhodesianHunter 3y ago

willcipriano 3y ago
Unless they are the FBI crime statistics, then we are back to anecdotes.
- ParetoOptimal 3y ago
  The way you analyze statistics matters too. For instance most don't cross-reference crime statistics with economic background and see how drastically that affects any prior (likely racist) conclusions.
  - Amezarak 3y ago
    Have you cross-referenced that? What I saw was that the lowest economic quintiles of some groups committed less crime than the wealthiest quintiles of other groups. The "economic" in "socio-economic" is important, but so is the "socio", which may include being discriminated against in the past. Unfortunately, statistics don't really bear out a lot of popular claims about the impact of poverty. For example, per-student funding does not make as big a difference in academic performance in schools as demographics and the local social environment: there are a lot of schools with bottom barrel funding that perform great and schools with exorbitant funding that perform miserably. And family income is not the strongest predictor of SAT scores.
eastof 3y ago
Don't the statistics show that black people have about the same rate of deaths per encounter as other groups? https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1903856116 https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1903856116 Deaths per capita are higher, but their police encounter rate is also higher. The higher encounter rate is possibly due to discrimination, but it doesn't match with your story about calling the cops and then getting shot.
- tildef 3y ago
  Worth noting that this paper has been retracted: https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2014148117 https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2014148117
  - cscurmudgeon 3y ago
    Worth noting the reason it was retracted: The authors wish to note the following: “Our article estimated the role of officer characteristics in predicting the race of civilians fatally shot by police. A critique pointed out we had erroneously made statements about racial differences in the probability of being shot (1), and we issued a correction to rectify the statement (2). Despite this correction, our work has continued to be cited as providing support for the idea that there are no racial biases in fatal shootings, or policing in general. To be clear, our work does not speak to these issues and should not be used to support such statements. We take full responsibility for not being careful enough with the inferences made in our original report, as this directly led to the misunderstanding of our research. While our data and statistical approach were appropriate for investigating whether officer characteristics are related to the race of civilians fatally shot by police, they are inadequate to address racial disparities in the probability of being shot.
LanceH 3y ago
The bar was set at non-zero, so a single (true) anecdote surpasses that.
- j_walter 3y ago
  The point of saying "when a black person calls police" implies that the "non-zero" is in reference to an increase from the status quo of "when a white person calls police". Everyday there is a non-zero chance of being shot by police whether you intiate the encounter or not.

Statistics matter, anecdotes do not.

willcipriano 3y ago

Unless they are the FBI crime statistics, then we are back to anecdotes.

ParetoOptimal 3y ago
The way you analyze statistics matters too. For instance most don't cross-reference crime statistics with economic background and see how drastically that affects any prior (likely racist) conclusions.
- Amezarak 3y ago
  Have you cross-referenced that? What I saw was that the lowest economic quintiles of some groups committed less crime than the wealthiest quintiles of other groups. The "economic" in "socio-economic" is important, but so is the "socio", which may include being discriminated against in the past. Unfortunately, statistics don't really bear out a lot of popular claims about the impact of poverty. For example, per-student funding does not make as big a difference in academic performance in schools as demographics and the local social environment: there are a lot of schools with bottom barrel funding that perform great and schools with exorbitant funding that perform miserably. And family income is not the strongest predictor of SAT scores.

eastof 3y ago

Don't the statistics show that black people have about the same rate of deaths per encounter as other groups? https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1903856116 https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1903856116 Deaths per capita are higher, but their police encounter rate is also higher. The higher encounter rate is possibly due to discrimination, but it doesn't match with your story about calling the cops and then getting shot.

tildef 3y ago
Worth noting that this paper has been retracted: https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2014148117 https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2014148117
- cscurmudgeon 3y ago
  Worth noting the reason it was retracted: The authors wish to note the following: “Our article estimated the role of officer characteristics in predicting the race of civilians fatally shot by police. A critique pointed out we had erroneously made statements about racial differences in the probability of being shot (1), and we issued a correction to rectify the statement (2). Despite this correction, our work has continued to be cited as providing support for the idea that there are no racial biases in fatal shootings, or policing in general. To be clear, our work does not speak to these issues and should not be used to support such statements. We take full responsibility for not being careful enough with the inferences made in our original report, as this directly led to the misunderstanding of our research. While our data and statistical approach were appropriate for investigating whether officer characteristics are related to the race of civilians fatally shot by police, they are inadequate to address racial disparities in the probability of being shot.

LanceH 3y ago

The bar was set at non-zero, so a single (true) anecdote surpasses that.

j_walter 3y ago
The point of saying "when a black person calls police" implies that the "non-zero" is in reference to an increase from the status quo of "when a white person calls police". Everyday there is a non-zero chance of being shot by police whether you intiate the encounter or not.