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I believe that there's very likely intelligent life elsewhere in the universe, there are ~300 billion stars in just in our galaxy, and the number of stars in th

I believe that there's very likely intelligent life elsewhere in the universe, there are ~300 billion stars in just in our galaxy, and the number of stars in the universe are uncountable, one estimate is 7 x 10^22. Not all have planets, of course, and even fewer have planets in what is believed to be a habitable zone. But still, it's just unfathomable that in billions of years across billions of trillions of star systems, that only one developed intelligent life. Even on earth, life was nearly destroyed 5 times, but still survived and evolved. Of course, it's very likely that such life will be forever undetectable by us, and we'll be undetectable by them.

nobody9999 3y ago
You won't get much of an argument about that from me. Again, channeling Carl Sagan[0], "if there's no one else out there, that seems like a huge waste of space." That's a paraphrase but captures the essence of what he wrote. But that doesn't mean it's so. We can be pretty confident that life as we know it has evolved elsewhere, given the chemistry involved, but intelligent, (and more importantly) life that develops technological civilizations is much less certain. Detecting intelligent non-technological life is likely impossible unless we actually visit such a planet. Consider a world where creatures like dolphins or whales are the dominant species. No fire (okay, sodium reactions, but how do you create and store pure sodium ions?), so no metallurgy. As I said, I'd need to see some pretty convincing evidence (even with the vast expanses of both space and time in the universe pushing in that direction) to claim that intelligent, technological life exists elsewhere. That doesn't mean such civilizations don't exist, but given we don't really understand how intelligence (as a prerequisite for a technologically advanced civilization) comes about, except in broad evolutionary terms, making such a claim is premature IMHO. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contact_(novel) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contact_(novel)
chihuahua 3y ago
If you like thinking about this sort of thing, there are several (3-6) good episodes of the Lex Fridman podcast that talk about these issues. There's also one that discusses the development of life on earth, it's very interesting and makes it sound like a miracle that we ended up with complex multi-cellular lifeforms.
JohnBooty 3y ago
But still, it's just unfathomable that in billions of years across billions of trillions of star systems, that only one developed intelligent life Only a vanishingly small portion of them will develop advanced tools, much less explore the universe. We have some pretty intelligent non-human life here on earth, but it doesn't seem like squids, elephants, or dolphins are on an upward intelligence trajectory and seem unlikely to explore the galaxy (apologies to Douglas Adams w.r.t. dolphines) It's also important IMO to understand that advanced intelligence is not an inevitable goal of evolution. Evolution only "cares" about survival. That can result in intelligent life, but it can just as often result in horseshoe crabs -- creatures of low intelligence that fill a niche perfectly and resiliently. Intelligence is a really tough way to survive. You need a metabolically expensiv and fragile brain (or brains) I'm a believer of the notion of "great filter(s)." I think most civilizations on a path to interstellar travel have to pass through a nuclear fission phase (how do you build advanced stuff without discovering this?) and I think a great % of civilizations will end/cripple themselves during this phase via nuclear war. This will filter out a lot of civilizations. The next challenging filter would be making serious efforts at exploring/colonizing/exploiting other planets and solar systems before exhausting their own home planet's resources or making it unlivable. The human race is definitely on pace to lose this race.

nobody9999 3y ago

You won't get much of an argument about that from me. Again, channeling Carl Sagan[0], "if there's no one else out there, that seems like a huge waste of space." That's a paraphrase but captures the essence of what he wrote. But that doesn't mean it's so. We can be pretty confident that life as we know it has evolved elsewhere, given the chemistry involved, but intelligent, (and more importantly) life that develops technological civilizations is much less certain. Detecting intelligent non-technological life is likely impossible unless we actually visit such a planet. Consider a world where creatures like dolphins or whales are the dominant species. No fire (okay, sodium reactions, but how do you create and store pure sodium ions?), so no metallurgy. As I said, I'd need to see some pretty convincing evidence (even with the vast expanses of both space and time in the universe pushing in that direction) to claim that intelligent, technological life exists elsewhere. That doesn't mean such civilizations don't exist, but given we don't really understand how intelligence (as a prerequisite for a technologically advanced civilization) comes about, except in broad evolutionary terms, making such a claim is premature IMHO. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contact_(novel) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contact_(novel)

chihuahua 3y ago

If you like thinking about this sort of thing, there are several (3-6) good episodes of the Lex Fridman podcast that talk about these issues. There's also one that discusses the development of life on earth, it's very interesting and makes it sound like a miracle that we ended up with complex multi-cellular lifeforms.

JohnBooty 3y ago

But still, it's just unfathomable that in billions of years across billions of trillions of star systems, that only one developed intelligent life Only a vanishingly small portion of them will develop advanced tools, much less explore the universe. We have some pretty intelligent non-human life here on earth, but it doesn't seem like squids, elephants, or dolphins are on an upward intelligence trajectory and seem unlikely to explore the galaxy (apologies to Douglas Adams w.r.t. dolphines) It's also important IMO to understand that advanced intelligence is not an inevitable goal of evolution. Evolution only "cares" about survival. That can result in intelligent life, but it can just as often result in horseshoe crabs -- creatures of low intelligence that fill a niche perfectly and resiliently. Intelligence is a really tough way to survive. You need a metabolically expensiv and fragile brain (or brains) I'm a believer of the notion of "great filter(s)." I think most civilizations on a path to interstellar travel have to pass through a nuclear fission phase (how do you build advanced stuff without discovering this?) and I think a great % of civilizations will end/cripple themselves during this phase via nuclear war. This will filter out a lot of civilizations. The next challenging filter would be making serious efforts at exploring/colonizing/exploiting other planets and solar systems before exhausting their own home planet's resources or making it unlivable. The human race is definitely on pace to lose this race.