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It means I have exceptionally high confidence that this will be the biggest thing to hit the economy, society and markets in the last hundred years for good and

by emadm 3y ago

It means I have exceptionally high confidence that this will be the biggest thing to hit the economy, society and markets in the last hundred years for good and ill. Against this there is minimal risk in obtaining large scale supercompute which will be a scarce asset, funding will not peak for a few years and there is no way to scale to meet demand. Almost nobody will also train their own models and open, auditable, models will be legally required for every government, regulated industries and more. My role is to allocate the compute, build the partnerships & gather people who believe that this technology should be distributed globally which is why we have a very diverse team. I am not very good with people though.

JimtheCoder 3y ago
Wow. He appears. Thanks for responding.
xiphias2 3y ago
I loved your last interview with Harry Stebbings: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4RrdKdC4v4&t=1437s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4RrdKdC4v4&t=1437s I don't want to see interviews about you quitting and saving the world, I wanted to see how you want to make money, and finally this last was honest. I guess you had to be quiet before, but I guess we had enough ,,altruisms'' and congress hearings with a few Sams already. (I also have Aspergers though, so not representing most people)
- emadm 3y ago
  Cheers. I have written about our business model many times here is a thread https://twitter.com/emostaque/status/1649152422634221593?s=46 https://twitter.com/emostaque/status/1649152422634221593?s=4... Also did a recent podcast on various AI business models with Sam Lessin that Nathan covers here https://twitter.com/labenz/status/1671549887056424960?s=46 https://twitter.com/labenz/status/1671549887056424960?s=46
teknopurge 3y ago
>> Almost nobody will also train their own models ... If the value is in better training data then everyone will train their own models. We should have a goal where we have domain-specific models that make us more efficient, but also constantly train a context-aware model based on individuals. Model composition is the future.
- tomp 3y ago
  > everyone will fine-tune their own models
  - teknopurge 3y ago
    individuals / companies that cannot afford their own workflows will fine-tune models with heavy preexisting biases. The upper-class of the market will train their own models, producing advantaged outcomes. Data is the moat.
    - emadm 3y ago
      Thus there is a market on creating open, auditable models of every media type, with sectoral and national variants. Models are like talented grads that occasionally go off their meds, proprietary black box models are like hiring them from McKinsey, fine tuning your own ones that you control is like hiring them All govts, regulated industries etc will use open auditable models so much bigger TAM
      - felipeodonnell 3y ago
        Considering proprietary black box models are going to be present in some form, is the difference between having AI lead to huge societal benefit or big brother down to whether data is open and provided by governments or closed in big tech?
        emadm 3y ago
        Yes if there aren’t good open models available then it’s massively centralising and will lead to a massive panopticon
xadhominemx 3y ago
Why is supercompute going to be a scarce asset? NVDA is going to sell 50 training-oriented supercomputers in the next 18 months.
- emadm 3y ago
  I have seen the orders and there simply isn’t enough looking at inference demand
  - xadhominemx 3y ago
    I mean that is true right now but NVDA’s 2024 AI-related revenue is going to be at least 3-4x higher than 2022.
throw14082020 3y ago
> I am not very good with people though. It's not about being good with people. Plenty of people are introverts - that's fine. Many are neurodiverse. However, it's pretty important in society to be honest and not-fraudulent. You've lost a lot of trust. It's not that you're not good with people. You're manipulative and people are not good with you anymore. https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrickcai/2023/06/04/stable-diffusion-emad-mostaque-stability-ai-exaggeration/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrickcai/2023/06/04/stable-di...
- emadm 3y ago
  That was an awful piece of journalism where they ignored multiple factual corrections after spending days with me. Even met the family and made fun of my work on my sons autism which shows what they are like. How many companies preseed get a 4,000 A100 cluster dedicated built from AWS etc? I wrote a reply anyway as this stuff makes me sad Happy to reply to any issues you may have here too https://emad.posthaven.com/on-setting-the-record-straight https://emad.posthaven.com/on-setting-the-record-straight
  - orf 3y ago
    > AWS built an incredibly rare dedicated compute cluster completed in August 2022 to the requirements of Stability. The 4,000 A100 cluster has dedicated capacity on a single spline which optimizes performance and is one of the only ones there This wording really doesn’t help your case. It sounds like a total exaggeration. Link to the AWS case study that highlights this relationship, or absolutely anything than just repeating “we are one of the only companies to have AWS buy a million GPUs for us and let us use them and it’s one of the only ones in this part of AWS’s network. Source: trust me bro”
    - emadm 3y ago
      We actually have a blog post coming on specifically this from AWS, at the time it was the 8th largest public A100 cluster and we covered it live again while we were preseed well before the funding round https://twitter.com/emostaque/status/1553120829336129537?s=46 https://twitter.com/emostaque/status/1553120829336129537?s=4... It was super interesting as an experience. At the very least anyone who has used AWS for ML can tell you that getting a 40 A100 quota let alone 4,000 is a feat in itself ^_^
coffeebeqn 3y ago
Classic HN interaction
- paulryanrogers 3y ago
  In what way? Hearing from the source directly?
btwillard 3y ago
> It means I have exceptionally high confidence that this will be the biggest thing to hit the economy, society and markets in the last hundred years for good and ill. How does having ADHD and/or Asperger's mean that? Are you implying that those give people high confidence?
jacquesm 3y ago
> It means I have exceptionally high confidence that this will be the biggest thing to hit the economy, society and markets in the last hundred years for good and ill. I'm with you on that one. And I'm not sure we are even close to the level of preparedness that we need (as a society) to weather that.

by emadm 3y ago

JimtheCoder 3y ago

Wow. He appears. Thanks for responding.

xiphias2 3y ago

I loved your last interview with Harry Stebbings: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4RrdKdC4v4&t=1437s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4RrdKdC4v4&t=1437s I don't want to see interviews about you quitting and saving the world, I wanted to see how you want to make money, and finally this last was honest. I guess you had to be quiet before, but I guess we had enough ,,altruisms'' and congress hearings with a few Sams already. (I also have Aspergers though, so not representing most people)

emadm 3y ago
Cheers. I have written about our business model many times here is a thread https://twitter.com/emostaque/status/1649152422634221593?s=46 https://twitter.com/emostaque/status/1649152422634221593?s=4... Also did a recent podcast on various AI business models with Sam Lessin that Nathan covers here https://twitter.com/labenz/status/1671549887056424960?s=46 https://twitter.com/labenz/status/1671549887056424960?s=46

teknopurge 3y ago

>> Almost nobody will also train their own models ... If the value is in better training data then everyone will train their own models. We should have a goal where we have domain-specific models that make us more efficient, but also constantly train a context-aware model based on individuals. Model composition is the future.

tomp 3y ago
> everyone will fine-tune their own models
- teknopurge 3y ago
  individuals / companies that cannot afford their own workflows will fine-tune models with heavy preexisting biases. The upper-class of the market will train their own models, producing advantaged outcomes. Data is the moat.
  - emadm 3y ago
    Thus there is a market on creating open, auditable models of every media type, with sectoral and national variants. Models are like talented grads that occasionally go off their meds, proprietary black box models are like hiring them from McKinsey, fine tuning your own ones that you control is like hiring them All govts, regulated industries etc will use open auditable models so much bigger TAM
    - felipeodonnell 3y ago
      Considering proprietary black box models are going to be present in some form, is the difference between having AI lead to huge societal benefit or big brother down to whether data is open and provided by governments or closed in big tech?
      - emadm 3y ago
        Yes if there aren’t good open models available then it’s massively centralising and will lead to a massive panopticon

xadhominemx 3y ago

Why is supercompute going to be a scarce asset? NVDA is going to sell 50 training-oriented supercomputers in the next 18 months.

emadm 3y ago
I have seen the orders and there simply isn’t enough looking at inference demand
- xadhominemx 3y ago
  I mean that is true right now but NVDA’s 2024 AI-related revenue is going to be at least 3-4x higher than 2022.

throw14082020 3y ago

> I am not very good with people though. It's not about being good with people. Plenty of people are introverts - that's fine. Many are neurodiverse. However, it's pretty important in society to be honest and not-fraudulent. You've lost a lot of trust. It's not that you're not good with people. You're manipulative and people are not good with you anymore. https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrickcai/2023/06/04/stable-diffusion-emad-mostaque-stability-ai-exaggeration/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrickcai/2023/06/04/stable-di...

emadm 3y ago
That was an awful piece of journalism where they ignored multiple factual corrections after spending days with me. Even met the family and made fun of my work on my sons autism which shows what they are like. How many companies preseed get a 4,000 A100 cluster dedicated built from AWS etc? I wrote a reply anyway as this stuff makes me sad Happy to reply to any issues you may have here too https://emad.posthaven.com/on-setting-the-record-straight https://emad.posthaven.com/on-setting-the-record-straight
- orf 3y ago
  > AWS built an incredibly rare dedicated compute cluster completed in August 2022 to the requirements of Stability. The 4,000 A100 cluster has dedicated capacity on a single spline which optimizes performance and is one of the only ones there This wording really doesn’t help your case. It sounds like a total exaggeration. Link to the AWS case study that highlights this relationship, or absolutely anything than just repeating “we are one of the only companies to have AWS buy a million GPUs for us and let us use them and it’s one of the only ones in this part of AWS’s network. Source: trust me bro”
  - emadm 3y ago
    We actually have a blog post coming on specifically this from AWS, at the time it was the 8th largest public A100 cluster and we covered it live again while we were preseed well before the funding round https://twitter.com/emostaque/status/1553120829336129537?s=46 https://twitter.com/emostaque/status/1553120829336129537?s=4... It was super interesting as an experience. At the very least anyone who has used AWS for ML can tell you that getting a 40 A100 quota let alone 4,000 is a feat in itself ^_^

coffeebeqn 3y ago

Classic HN interaction

paulryanrogers 3y ago
In what way? Hearing from the source directly?

btwillard 3y ago

> It means I have exceptionally high confidence that this will be the biggest thing to hit the economy, society and markets in the last hundred years for good and ill. How does having ADHD and/or Asperger's mean that? Are you implying that those give people high confidence?

jacquesm 3y ago

> It means I have exceptionally high confidence that this will be the biggest thing to hit the economy, society and markets in the last hundred years for good and ill. I'm with you on that one. And I'm not sure we are even close to the level of preparedness that we need (as a society) to weather that.