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From the article... “I have Asperger’s and ADHD, and I have a very definitive view of the future,” he (Emad Mostaque, CEO) said on stage. “I think that shocks

From the article... “I have Asperger’s and ADHD, and I have a very definitive view of the future,” he (Emad Mostaque, CEO) said on stage. “I think that shocks people because they can’t deal with the exponentials.” What does this even mean?

jeron 3y ago
sounds like he's a micromanaging visionary with no feelings
- emadm 3y ago
  Opposite actually.
  - saulpw 3y ago
    So, a hands-off manager with feelings but no vision?
    - emadm 3y ago
      Yep
deltree7 3y ago
Non-Asperger people think linearly. They also need structure, rules and 5-year plan for their career.
- coffeebeqn 3y ago
  Isn’t it the opposite? Autists love structure
ke88y 3y ago
The scientific vision, leadership, and work was done by other folks. Emad saw the opportunity but primarily contributed cash and connections, which in the west means he gets to control everything. As a result, he is currently setting a tragic quantity of finite resources on fire (not the least of which is time and human capital, and in a geopolitically important field). The western world desperately needs a way to do resource allocation that is parallel to and augments financial markets. History did not end, and the "joker with the most cash is dictator of the org" model has become perhaps the largest existential threat to the western world.
- woooooo 3y ago
  I'm with you on everything here but its not like westerners have a monopoly on cash/connections being paramount. It's been true everywhere, all the time, even in communist countries that are supposed to make it impossible.
  - ke88y 3y ago
    Agreed. I believe "competency" is orthogonal to "liberal constitutional-republican and/or democratic values". This is exactly what I mean when I say that we are not at The End Of History. Western values need not necessarily win out. The belief in that inevitability is the source of the west's sclerotic apathy, and without correction will lead no where good.
- wskinner 3y ago
  > The western world desperately needs a way to do resource allocation that is parallel to and augments financial markets. Something like a government that taxes the people and spends the tax revenue on stuff? In the USA, government spending accounts for 37% of GDP [1]. The fact that some individuals can gain control over quantities of capital which are large in absolute terms but small in comparison to the total size of the economy is a crucial feature of this system. [1]: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-spending-to-gdp https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-spendi...
  - ke88y 3y ago
    > In the USA, government spending accounts for 37% of GDP First, and most importantly, this is a critique of all societal institutions. I do not think that the correct solution is necessarily taxation and redistribution. The investors in Stability AI didn't have to choose to misspend their money on an organization structured as a typical 20th century corporate dictatorship run by a big personality; they could have set up a much more effective structure. But they chose that corporate structure and leadership personality type/background because our society is sick on a fundamental level. I would like to think financial markets are capable of breaking out of this insanity, but I'm extraordinarily skeptical. Second, almost none of our alternative to the financial status quo of corporate-big-personality-dictatorship (aka government spending since we have no other alternative) goes to R&D/innovation. The vast bulk of that spending goes to entitlements and defense. The part we do spend on science is barely enough to support basic science and is still embarrassingly small compared to other outlays. For example, we spend twice as much on farm subsidies (not AG total, just subsidies) as we do on the National Science Foundation. Third, of the part that does go toward R&D/innovation, almost none of it is spent on development and innovation. Almost all of our federal spending buckets on R&D is heavy on R, light on D, and "hackathon"/"pre-seed" levels of interest in innovation. We do not spend enough on R&D/innovation, and what we do spend is misallocated (mostly towards the goal of generating IP for Springer) because it is mostly allocated by folks at elite universities who are all friends with one another. The public sector in the west is just as broken as the private, albiet the pathology presents differently. I imagine there are alternatives beyond choosing between two horrendously broken systems.
emadm 3y ago
It means I have exceptionally high confidence that this will be the biggest thing to hit the economy, society and markets in the last hundred years for good and ill. Against this there is minimal risk in obtaining large scale supercompute which will be a scarce asset, funding will not peak for a few years and there is no way to scale to meet demand. Almost nobody will also train their own models and open, auditable, models will be legally required for every government, regulated industries and more. My role is to allocate the compute, build the partnerships & gather people who believe that this technology should be distributed globally which is why we have a very diverse team. I am not very good with people though.
- JimtheCoder 3y ago
  Wow. He appears. Thanks for responding.
- xiphias2 3y ago
  I loved your last interview with Harry Stebbings: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4RrdKdC4v4&t=1437s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4RrdKdC4v4&t=1437s I don't want to see interviews about you quitting and saving the world, I wanted to see how you want to make money, and finally this last was honest. I guess you had to be quiet before, but I guess we had enough ,,altruisms'' and congress hearings with a few Sams already. (I also have Aspergers though, so not representing most people)
  - emadm 3y ago
    Cheers. I have written about our business model many times here is a thread https://twitter.com/emostaque/status/1649152422634221593?s=46 https://twitter.com/emostaque/status/1649152422634221593?s=4... Also did a recent podcast on various AI business models with Sam Lessin that Nathan covers here https://twitter.com/labenz/status/1671549887056424960?s=46 https://twitter.com/labenz/status/1671549887056424960?s=46
- teknopurge 3y ago
  >> Almost nobody will also train their own models ... If the value is in better training data then everyone will train their own models. We should have a goal where we have domain-specific models that make us more efficient, but also constantly train a context-aware model based on individuals. Model composition is the future.
riwsky 3y ago
It means that, even if you think you really hate meetings, he hates meetings 100x more

jeron 3y ago

sounds like he's a micromanaging visionary with no feelings

emadm 3y ago
Opposite actually.
- saulpw 3y ago
  So, a hands-off manager with feelings but no vision?
  - emadm 3y ago
    Yep

deltree7 3y ago

Non-Asperger people think linearly. They also need structure, rules and 5-year plan for their career.

coffeebeqn 3y ago
Isn’t it the opposite? Autists love structure

ke88y 3y ago

The scientific vision, leadership, and work was done by other folks. Emad saw the opportunity but primarily contributed cash and connections, which in the west means he gets to control everything. As a result, he is currently setting a tragic quantity of finite resources on fire (not the least of which is time and human capital, and in a geopolitically important field). The western world desperately needs a way to do resource allocation that is parallel to and augments financial markets. History did not end, and the "joker with the most cash is dictator of the org" model has become perhaps the largest existential threat to the western world.

woooooo 3y ago
I'm with you on everything here but its not like westerners have a monopoly on cash/connections being paramount. It's been true everywhere, all the time, even in communist countries that are supposed to make it impossible.
- ke88y 3y ago
  Agreed. I believe "competency" is orthogonal to "liberal constitutional-republican and/or democratic values". This is exactly what I mean when I say that we are not at The End Of History. Western values need not necessarily win out. The belief in that inevitability is the source of the west's sclerotic apathy, and without correction will lead no where good.
wskinner 3y ago
> The western world desperately needs a way to do resource allocation that is parallel to and augments financial markets. Something like a government that taxes the people and spends the tax revenue on stuff? In the USA, government spending accounts for 37% of GDP [1]. The fact that some individuals can gain control over quantities of capital which are large in absolute terms but small in comparison to the total size of the economy is a crucial feature of this system. [1]: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-spending-to-gdp https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-spendi...
- ke88y 3y ago
  > In the USA, government spending accounts for 37% of GDP First, and most importantly, this is a critique of all societal institutions. I do not think that the correct solution is necessarily taxation and redistribution. The investors in Stability AI didn't have to choose to misspend their money on an organization structured as a typical 20th century corporate dictatorship run by a big personality; they could have set up a much more effective structure. But they chose that corporate structure and leadership personality type/background because our society is sick on a fundamental level. I would like to think financial markets are capable of breaking out of this insanity, but I'm extraordinarily skeptical. Second, almost none of our alternative to the financial status quo of corporate-big-personality-dictatorship (aka government spending since we have no other alternative) goes to R&D/innovation. The vast bulk of that spending goes to entitlements and defense. The part we do spend on science is barely enough to support basic science and is still embarrassingly small compared to other outlays. For example, we spend twice as much on farm subsidies (not AG total, just subsidies) as we do on the National Science Foundation. Third, of the part that does go toward R&D/innovation, almost none of it is spent on development and innovation. Almost all of our federal spending buckets on R&D is heavy on R, light on D, and "hackathon"/"pre-seed" levels of interest in innovation. We do not spend enough on R&D/innovation, and what we do spend is misallocated (mostly towards the goal of generating IP for Springer) because it is mostly allocated by folks at elite universities who are all friends with one another. The public sector in the west is just as broken as the private, albiet the pathology presents differently. I imagine there are alternatives beyond choosing between two horrendously broken systems.

emadm 3y ago

It means I have exceptionally high confidence that this will be the biggest thing to hit the economy, society and markets in the last hundred years for good and ill. Against this there is minimal risk in obtaining large scale supercompute which will be a scarce asset, funding will not peak for a few years and there is no way to scale to meet demand. Almost nobody will also train their own models and open, auditable, models will be legally required for every government, regulated industries and more. My role is to allocate the compute, build the partnerships & gather people who believe that this technology should be distributed globally which is why we have a very diverse team. I am not very good with people though.

JimtheCoder 3y ago
Wow. He appears. Thanks for responding.
xiphias2 3y ago
I loved your last interview with Harry Stebbings: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4RrdKdC4v4&t=1437s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4RrdKdC4v4&t=1437s I don't want to see interviews about you quitting and saving the world, I wanted to see how you want to make money, and finally this last was honest. I guess you had to be quiet before, but I guess we had enough ,,altruisms'' and congress hearings with a few Sams already. (I also have Aspergers though, so not representing most people)
- emadm 3y ago
  Cheers. I have written about our business model many times here is a thread https://twitter.com/emostaque/status/1649152422634221593?s=46 https://twitter.com/emostaque/status/1649152422634221593?s=4... Also did a recent podcast on various AI business models with Sam Lessin that Nathan covers here https://twitter.com/labenz/status/1671549887056424960?s=46 https://twitter.com/labenz/status/1671549887056424960?s=46
teknopurge 3y ago
>> Almost nobody will also train their own models ... If the value is in better training data then everyone will train their own models. We should have a goal where we have domain-specific models that make us more efficient, but also constantly train a context-aware model based on individuals. Model composition is the future.

riwsky 3y ago

It means that, even if you think you really hate meetings, he hates meetings 100x more