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I think the consequences of a sudden, permanent shutdown of the internet would be fairly dire over the short term. Grocery stores would face inventory problems,

I think the consequences of a sudden, permanent shutdown of the internet would be fairly dire over the short term. Grocery stores would face inventory problems, with shortages worse than what we saw in 2020. Emergency services could be stretched thin as they deal with any unrest, while navigating their work without any internet-connected services they relied on. Energy infrastructure could experience interruptions due to the loss of connectivity. As for economic consequences, millions of jobs would just no longer make sense, and many others would get harder and frequently much less efficient. Certain major categories of product no longer make as much sense; what's an iPhone that can't connect to the internet worth? It's just a telephone with a camera (that takes images you can't share). It could be deadly to some degree? All it takes is for the power to go out somewhere exceedingly hot in July, as the loss of air conditioning can be deadly for the elderly. But as deadly as the nukes the US dropped on Japan? I don't see it.

p-e-w 3y ago
> what's an iPhone that can't connect to the internet worth? It's just a telephone with a camera Nope. It's just a camera. Because the "telephone" part relies on infrastructure that is unmaintainable without the Internet, and would probably stop functioning in a matter of days. And boom, you're back to the 19th century, where telephones weren't a thing. Except that unlike in the 19th century, there isn't any infrastructure to make things work in that situation. How does the hospital order medical supplies now? By paper mail? Sorry, mail can't be delivered anymore, since all postal services depend on logistic systems that in turn depend on the Internet for coordination. Also, printed catalogs haven't existed for almost 2 decades, so the hospital won't even know what supplies are available. And either way, the supplier doesn't have anything in stock, because their entire supply chain has collapsed, because international trade isn't a thing anymore. Did I mention that GPS (and thus most of sea/air navigation) has stopped working because the ground-based infrastructure needed to keep it running depended on, you guessed it, the Internet? Still think that won't kill more people than the atomic bombings (which killed "only" 200k)?
- c_crank 3y ago
  There are these things called 'radios'...
- mrtranscendence 3y ago
  I guess I'm just marginally more sanguine than you are that issues related to infrastructure and logistics could be, eventually, worked around. There would still be ways to contact people over a distance, some of which would remain available even in the initial chaos. Further, there are many people still working today who worked before internet-connected-everything, so there may still be useful institutional knowledge to bring to bear on these new problems. My point on the iPhone was about what would happen after telephony infrastructure and supply chains had recovered (however long that takes). In the immediate aftermath of the shutdown mobile phones would absolutely lose the ability to make or receive calls. But again, I expect this to recover somewhat after a few months. Your point on hospitals not being able to order supplies is a good one, regardless. Without blood supplies or dialysis equipment (or a bunch of other things), people would absolutely die. Perhaps those first weeks would be deadlier than I anticipated.

p-e-w 3y ago

> what's an iPhone that can't connect to the internet worth? It's just a telephone with a camera Nope. It's just a camera. Because the "telephone" part relies on infrastructure that is unmaintainable without the Internet, and would probably stop functioning in a matter of days. And boom, you're back to the 19th century, where telephones weren't a thing. Except that unlike in the 19th century, there isn't any infrastructure to make things work in that situation. How does the hospital order medical supplies now? By paper mail? Sorry, mail can't be delivered anymore, since all postal services depend on logistic systems that in turn depend on the Internet for coordination. Also, printed catalogs haven't existed for almost 2 decades, so the hospital won't even know what supplies are available. And either way, the supplier doesn't have anything in stock, because their entire supply chain has collapsed, because international trade isn't a thing anymore. Did I mention that GPS (and thus most of sea/air navigation) has stopped working because the ground-based infrastructure needed to keep it running depended on, you guessed it, the Internet? Still think that won't kill more people than the atomic bombings (which killed "only" 200k)?

c_crank 3y ago
There are these things called 'radios'...
mrtranscendence 3y ago
I guess I'm just marginally more sanguine than you are that issues related to infrastructure and logistics could be, eventually, worked around. There would still be ways to contact people over a distance, some of which would remain available even in the initial chaos. Further, there are many people still working today who worked before internet-connected-everything, so there may still be useful institutional knowledge to bring to bear on these new problems. My point on the iPhone was about what would happen after telephony infrastructure and supply chains had recovered (however long that takes). In the immediate aftermath of the shutdown mobile phones would absolutely lose the ability to make or receive calls. But again, I expect this to recover somewhat after a few months. Your point on hospitals not being able to order supplies is a good one, regardless. Without blood supplies or dialysis equipment (or a bunch of other things), people would absolutely die. Perhaps those first weeks would be deadlier than I anticipated.