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The US does not have a shortage of single family homes. It has a shortage of single family homes that are being used as single family homes. The data in this v

by anm89 3y ago

The US does not have a shortage of single family homes. It has a shortage of single family homes that are being used as single family homes. The data in this video is unambiguous. Sales down 40-50% in cities where there are 4x more Airbnbs than homes for sale. Some of those houses WILL be entering the market as operators cannot handle the negative cashflow. These will be either hard or soft forced sales but let's be clear, many sellers will have no say in the matter. Fail to understand this dynamic at your own peril. Housing is not nearly secure as many people are suggesting at the moment.

andsoitis 3y ago
> Housing is not nearly secure as many people are suggesting at the moment. What do you mean?
- diogenescynic 3y ago
  Probably that it would only take a small uptick in sellers/inventory to push the price equilibrium down and pretty quick you’d see a lot of recent buyers with negative equity. There have been 3 years of eviction protections and despite mortgage defaults going up, foreclosures have dropped. The market has been severely manipulated and at some point it’ll return to a normal market. Also something like 27% of mortgage holders would be forced to sell if they lost their jobs. If we go into a recession, there will be lots of forced sales.
verdagon 3y ago
Source about single family homes not being used as single family homes? Would love to read more!
- silok 3y ago
  It is a pretty common phenomenon that parents continue to live in their single family home long after all the children has moved out. At least in Sweden this is definitely the case. Not really a lack of single family homes, but too much friction for people to move to a more fitting home.
  - philwelch 3y ago
    What’s wrong with living in a single family home without children?
- anm89 3y ago
  I'm referencing the 2M+ short term rentals in the US. Obviously not all of them are but let's just say more than half. That's a lot of inventory sucked off the market. More than double the total number for sale right now.
deleted 3y ago
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by anm89 3y ago

andsoitis 3y ago

> Housing is not nearly secure as many people are suggesting at the moment. What do you mean?

diogenescynic 3y ago
Probably that it would only take a small uptick in sellers/inventory to push the price equilibrium down and pretty quick you’d see a lot of recent buyers with negative equity. There have been 3 years of eviction protections and despite mortgage defaults going up, foreclosures have dropped. The market has been severely manipulated and at some point it’ll return to a normal market. Also something like 27% of mortgage holders would be forced to sell if they lost their jobs. If we go into a recession, there will be lots of forced sales.

verdagon 3y ago

Source about single family homes not being used as single family homes? Would love to read more!

silok 3y ago
It is a pretty common phenomenon that parents continue to live in their single family home long after all the children has moved out. At least in Sweden this is definitely the case. Not really a lack of single family homes, but too much friction for people to move to a more fitting home.
- philwelch 3y ago
  What’s wrong with living in a single family home without children?
anm89 3y ago
I'm referencing the 2M+ short term rentals in the US. Obviously not all of them are but let's just say more than half. That's a lot of inventory sucked off the market. More than double the total number for sale right now.

deleted 3y ago

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