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Do you think it’s really too late though? Aren’t we just at the beginnings?

smoldesu 3y ago
In my opinion, it's definitely too late. ChatGPT is one of the most well-marketed products of all time, and it frankly didn't achieve all that much. It scaled up current SOTA and put it behind a paywalled API, and the rest is history. It's like the fountain of youth, a dream API for most developers. Put something in, get something out. Whoever owns the endpoint just prints money. Everything after this point will just be habitually disappointing. Everything will be held to the impossibly high standard of the first time you tried ChatGPT, not the more realistic benchmarks of GPT-2, LLaMA, Bert, or even Talk-To-Transformer. I don't think it will be possible to recapture that magic, and Sam Altman was the first-mover on turning that awe into fear.
- jrm4 3y ago
  Weird take; doesn't strike me as at all inevitable. I can't think of any similar huge thing that won like this merely by being a first-mover. Google, Facebook, Spotify etc etc?
  - troyvit 3y ago
    I agree. ChatGPT is like the Windows of LLMs in it's dominance but that still leaves plenty of room for smaller players to make a niche.
- uLogMicheal 3y ago
  Someone will build a better app layer that supersedes theirs and they will have to hope that app sells out. The pioneering innovation left the building when they quit being open imo and their frontend / pace of development on the frontend leaves a lot of opportunity.
- jazzyjackson 3y ago
  Eh, I think they flubbed it. Agreed that they put it on the market at a time that made a splash and gave a lot of magical first impressions, but at this point the possibility of ever trusting these things is burned, if improved models manage to lie a little less, that won't be enough to actually integrate them into mission critical tasks. Instead of an oracle they released an improv comedian. Entertaining enough but not what you want running the show.
- Panzer04 3y ago
  But there's effectively 0 barrier to moving to something else, right? The simpler the API, the less lock in effect you get.

In my opinion, it's definitely too late. ChatGPT is one of the most well-marketed products of all time, and it frankly didn't achieve all that much. It scaled up current SOTA and put it behind a paywalled API, and the rest is history. It's like the fountain of youth, a dream API for most developers. Put something in, get something out. Whoever owns the endpoint just prints money. Everything after this point will just be habitually disappointing. Everything will be held to the impossibly high standard of the first time you tried ChatGPT, not the more realistic benchmarks of GPT-2, LLaMA, Bert, or even Talk-To-Transformer. I don't think it will be possible to recapture that magic, and Sam Altman was the first-mover on turning that awe into fear.

jrm4 3y ago
Weird take; doesn't strike me as at all inevitable. I can't think of any similar huge thing that won like this merely by being a first-mover. Google, Facebook, Spotify etc etc?
- troyvit 3y ago
  I agree. ChatGPT is like the Windows of LLMs in it's dominance but that still leaves plenty of room for smaller players to make a niche.
uLogMicheal 3y ago
Someone will build a better app layer that supersedes theirs and they will have to hope that app sells out. The pioneering innovation left the building when they quit being open imo and their frontend / pace of development on the frontend leaves a lot of opportunity.
jazzyjackson 3y ago
Eh, I think they flubbed it. Agreed that they put it on the market at a time that made a splash and gave a lot of magical first impressions, but at this point the possibility of ever trusting these things is burned, if improved models manage to lie a little less, that won't be enough to actually integrate them into mission critical tasks. Instead of an oracle they released an improv comedian. Entertaining enough but not what you want running the show.
Panzer04 3y ago
But there's effectively 0 barrier to moving to something else, right? The simpler the API, the less lock in effect you get.