4 ms·

It's interesting that while other companies are doubling down on electric vehicles, Toyota has come out and said the opposite after being one of the first compa

by gobins 3y ago

It's interesting that while other companies are doubling down on electric vehicles, Toyota has come out and said the opposite after being one of the first companies to start.

bigyikes 3y ago
Electric cars becoming dominant seems like an inevitability to me, and it looks like many auto makers agree. It’s “just” a matter of battery costs, battery density, energy costs, and volume. What does Toyota see that we’re missing? I ask this as someone who just bought an ICE vehicle, but only because there were no electric vehicles in my market segment.
- GiorgioG 3y ago
  As someone who isn't sold on EVs (as they exist today), I just don't how EVs will wind up being better economically. Energy costs will wind up going up as demand on the grid strains our infrastructure's ability to supply enough electricity as most folks switches over to EVs. Worse, costs for all electricity (home, industry, etc) will go up as demand surges. My ICE vehicle won't lose range like an EV's will over time. Nor, will it need an expensive battery to be replaced. From a practical perspective, I can store 100+ miles of range in a $30 plastic container that I can store in the yard. If there's an extended power outage and I have an EV - I have to wait for the grid to come back up in order to drive my EV. Backup home batteries are still very expensive. Even at half their current prices they're prohibitive (compared to say an emergency gas generator). Will these problems be solved? Probably, just not in the next few years. My wife just got a new car and we chose an ICE. I will probably replace my 2016 ICE vehicle in the next 5-10 years and I think I'll wind up with another ICE.
  - panick21_ 3y ago
    > Energy costs will wind up going up Will still be cheaper then gas. Total cost of living will still be less. > Nor, will it need an expensive battery to be replaced. Overall live-cycle cost are already higher. And many batteries can go for a very, very long time. Even if you reach the 80% mark, they can often continue after that. Many EV batters survive the car and then go on to do other stuff for a long time. And those were first generation packs. > I can store 100+ miles of range in a $30 plastic container that I can store in the yard Something 99% of people have never done.
  - Sohcahtoa82 3y ago
    > Energy costs will wind up going up as demand on the grid strains our infrastructure's ability to supply enough electricity as most folks switches over to EVs. Be careful to not think inside a bubble. There are a LOT of cars on the road that are over 20 years old. ICE cars being bought today are going to be on the road 20+ years from now. It's going to be a long time before the majority of cars sold are electric, and even longer before most cars on the road are. In that time, electric companies have plenty of time to ramp of electrical production. Also, it's worth mentioning that the time most people will be charging is in the evening, when electricity usage is declining anyways. With time-of-use pricing, we could heavily incentivize charging to only occur in the dead of night when electricity usage is minimal. The grid can handle it (Unless you're in Texas). > Worse, costs for all electricity (home, industry, etc) will go up as demand surges. Most people charging at home are using a 220 volt, 40-amp circuit, and charging at 32 amps. That's 7 kW. Most EV users will only need to charge for 0-3 hours/day. Overall, it doesn't represent a very large increase in electricity usage. Back when I was driving 300 miles/week, my car charging was only ~15% of my electric bill. > My ICE vehicle won't lose range like an EV's will over time. Nor, will it need an expensive battery to be replaced. Unless you bought one of those shitty first-gen Leafs with the sub-90-mile battery that didn't have cooling, battery degradation isn't a concern. Yes, it happens, but it's VERY slow. About 15% after 150,000 miles. If I've gone that far, I'm more likely to be interested in buying a new car than replacing just the battery. Besides, isn't it common for ICE vehicles to lose fuel economy over time as some parts wear out? > [...power outage...] Yeah, there's a fair point about being able to store "range" in a can. But...meh. Not worried about it. In the over 20 years I've been driving, it's only been an issue once, and it was because I was stupid.
    - sokoloff 3y ago
      > isn't it common for ICE vehicles to lose fuel economy over time as some parts wear out? Technically yes, but it’s significantly less than the range degradation on even the best electric vehicles.
    - ericd 3y ago
      Is it even most ev owners that are on 240V? We’ve been on a normal 120V 15 amp the entire time we’ve had one, and it’s been fine, because it sits there for 14-16 hours most days. We actually have a Tesla wall charger just sitting on the ground, never installed, because we haven’t really needed it.
- jdeibele 3y ago
  I would have said that Japan was not great for solar but surprisingly (to me) they have almost 20X more solar energy produced than wind. Renewable sources of electricity would seem to be solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, biomass, and nuclear. According to https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/japan-can-achieve-90-clean-power-share-by-2035-us-study-finds-2023-03-01/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/japan-can-achieve-90... 24% of their energy is renewable today and they're planning on significantly boosting nuclear. 76% of their energy comes from gas and oil from other countries. Toyota and other Japanese manufacturers seemed to focus on their domestic market, meaning hybrids or ICE vehicles instead of EVs. Electric vehicles are becoming drastically more popular in the US and Europe. Toyota talks about how the battery requirements of 1 EV could be used for a dozen hybrids. And they're right. But it's also besides the point. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Japan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Japan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_in_Japan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_in_Japan
- jandrese 3y ago
  > What does Toyota see that we’re missing? A huge ICE vehicle construction infrastructure that they don't want to throw away.
qqtt 3y ago
Toyota and Honda are both pushing more into electric cars these days. The main reason they are behind is that the Japanese government pushed hard to develop fuel cell cars and gave out big incentives for companies to put fuel cell vehicles on the road. This big push is why Honda and Toyota both have fuel cell options for customers to use on the road today, but they are both pretty behind on battery electric vehicles.
- jandrese 3y ago
  To be fair the Toyota CEO was also actively hostile to BEVs, sparing no opportunity to belittle them. But yeah, the years wasted on dead end fuel cell technology definitely hurt them.

by gobins 3y ago

It's interesting that while other companies are doubling down on electric vehicles, Toyota has come out and said the opposite after being one of the first companies to start.

bigyikes 3y ago

Electric cars becoming dominant seems like an inevitability to me, and it looks like many auto makers agree. It’s “just” a matter of battery costs, battery density, energy costs, and volume. What does Toyota see that we’re missing? I ask this as someone who just bought an ICE vehicle, but only because there were no electric vehicles in my market segment.

GiorgioG 3y ago
As someone who isn't sold on EVs (as they exist today), I just don't how EVs will wind up being better economically. Energy costs will wind up going up as demand on the grid strains our infrastructure's ability to supply enough electricity as most folks switches over to EVs. Worse, costs for all electricity (home, industry, etc) will go up as demand surges. My ICE vehicle won't lose range like an EV's will over time. Nor, will it need an expensive battery to be replaced. From a practical perspective, I can store 100+ miles of range in a $30 plastic container that I can store in the yard. If there's an extended power outage and I have an EV - I have to wait for the grid to come back up in order to drive my EV. Backup home batteries are still very expensive. Even at half their current prices they're prohibitive (compared to say an emergency gas generator). Will these problems be solved? Probably, just not in the next few years. My wife just got a new car and we chose an ICE. I will probably replace my 2016 ICE vehicle in the next 5-10 years and I think I'll wind up with another ICE.
- panick21_ 3y ago
  > Energy costs will wind up going up Will still be cheaper then gas. Total cost of living will still be less. > Nor, will it need an expensive battery to be replaced. Overall live-cycle cost are already higher. And many batteries can go for a very, very long time. Even if you reach the 80% mark, they can often continue after that. Many EV batters survive the car and then go on to do other stuff for a long time. And those were first generation packs. > I can store 100+ miles of range in a $30 plastic container that I can store in the yard Something 99% of people have never done.
- Sohcahtoa82 3y ago
  > Energy costs will wind up going up as demand on the grid strains our infrastructure's ability to supply enough electricity as most folks switches over to EVs. Be careful to not think inside a bubble. There are a LOT of cars on the road that are over 20 years old. ICE cars being bought today are going to be on the road 20+ years from now. It's going to be a long time before the majority of cars sold are electric, and even longer before most cars on the road are. In that time, electric companies have plenty of time to ramp of electrical production. Also, it's worth mentioning that the time most people will be charging is in the evening, when electricity usage is declining anyways. With time-of-use pricing, we could heavily incentivize charging to only occur in the dead of night when electricity usage is minimal. The grid can handle it (Unless you're in Texas). > Worse, costs for all electricity (home, industry, etc) will go up as demand surges. Most people charging at home are using a 220 volt, 40-amp circuit, and charging at 32 amps. That's 7 kW. Most EV users will only need to charge for 0-3 hours/day. Overall, it doesn't represent a very large increase in electricity usage. Back when I was driving 300 miles/week, my car charging was only ~15% of my electric bill. > My ICE vehicle won't lose range like an EV's will over time. Nor, will it need an expensive battery to be replaced. Unless you bought one of those shitty first-gen Leafs with the sub-90-mile battery that didn't have cooling, battery degradation isn't a concern. Yes, it happens, but it's VERY slow. About 15% after 150,000 miles. If I've gone that far, I'm more likely to be interested in buying a new car than replacing just the battery. Besides, isn't it common for ICE vehicles to lose fuel economy over time as some parts wear out? > [...power outage...] Yeah, there's a fair point about being able to store "range" in a can. But...meh. Not worried about it. In the over 20 years I've been driving, it's only been an issue once, and it was because I was stupid.
  - sokoloff 3y ago
    > isn't it common for ICE vehicles to lose fuel economy over time as some parts wear out? Technically yes, but it’s significantly less than the range degradation on even the best electric vehicles.
  - ericd 3y ago
    Is it even most ev owners that are on 240V? We’ve been on a normal 120V 15 amp the entire time we’ve had one, and it’s been fine, because it sits there for 14-16 hours most days. We actually have a Tesla wall charger just sitting on the ground, never installed, because we haven’t really needed it.
jdeibele 3y ago
I would have said that Japan was not great for solar but surprisingly (to me) they have almost 20X more solar energy produced than wind. Renewable sources of electricity would seem to be solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, biomass, and nuclear. According to https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/japan-can-achieve-90-clean-power-share-by-2035-us-study-finds-2023-03-01/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/japan-can-achieve-90... 24% of their energy is renewable today and they're planning on significantly boosting nuclear. 76% of their energy comes from gas and oil from other countries. Toyota and other Japanese manufacturers seemed to focus on their domestic market, meaning hybrids or ICE vehicles instead of EVs. Electric vehicles are becoming drastically more popular in the US and Europe. Toyota talks about how the battery requirements of 1 EV could be used for a dozen hybrids. And they're right. But it's also besides the point. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Japan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Japan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_in_Japan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_in_Japan
jandrese 3y ago
> What does Toyota see that we’re missing? A huge ICE vehicle construction infrastructure that they don't want to throw away.

qqtt 3y ago

Toyota and Honda are both pushing more into electric cars these days. The main reason they are behind is that the Japanese government pushed hard to develop fuel cell cars and gave out big incentives for companies to put fuel cell vehicles on the road. This big push is why Honda and Toyota both have fuel cell options for customers to use on the road today, but they are both pretty behind on battery electric vehicles.

jandrese 3y ago
To be fair the Toyota CEO was also actively hostile to BEVs, sparing no opportunity to belittle them. But yeah, the years wasted on dead end fuel cell technology definitely hurt them.