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Would those incidents be frequent enough to make anything but a de minimus impact?
by voisin 3y ago
Would those incidents be frequent enough to make anything but a de minimus impact?
- waiwai933 3y agoProbably, given how rare any fatality in commercial aviation is.
- twbarr 3y agoOne of the three 777 accidents is being shot down by a Russian SAM.
- zerocrates 3y agoAnother is the infamous MH370.
- Someone1234 3y agoThe entire dataset is microscopic. I'd say it could make a substantial impact.
- bjelkeman-again 3y agoA really small datasets shouldn’t be used for statistics. But is it small, considering there are millions of flights registered?
- Someone1234 3y agoMillions of flights, but less than ten crashes for most, and it was pointing out that even some of those are incorrectly categorized. When you're dividing A by B to get ratio C, you cannot ignore that A is bad data because B is good, it still makes for a C that is useless. All this dataset provides is that with small enough samples it is too noisy to draw reliable conclusions.
- lolinder 3y agoYou need a larger dataset if you're dealing with very small probabilities. If you measured millions of events and only saw 1 anomalous event, you have enough data to say that the probability of such an anomaly is extremely rare, but you don't have enough data to compare it to other very rare events. More concretely: if you flip an unfair coin 1 million times and get a single heads, you know that the odds of getting that heads are extremely low, but you can't yet say what the odds are. It's possible that the odds are one in a million, but it's also possible that you got very lucky or very unlucky relative to the actual odds. You have to have a lot of data in both buckets before you can distinguish.
- rootusrootus 3y agoIf I'm doing the math right, there were only 3 fatalities on a 777 if you don't count MH370 or the Ukraine/Russian shoot-down. That would change the FLE from 2.01 to 0.01.
- henryfjordan 3y agoI understand not wanting to count a shoot-down but why not count MH370? For all we know there was a safety issue with that aircraft that caused the crash.
- local_crmdgeon 3y agoWe basically know that it was suicide at this point.
- rootusrootus 3y agoAs I recall, there's a fair amount of circumstantial evidence at this point to suggest pilot suicide as the most likely cause.
- excitom 3y agoAfter almost a decade of investigation the preponderance of evidence points to murder/suicide by the pilot. A safety issue is highly unlikely.
- lopkeny12ko 3y agoThis is a very USA/western-centric perspective. No SE Asia reporting is stating this.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- pcurve 3y agoDepending on plane, it could. For example, 777 has had very few incidents, but its figure is impacted by MH370 and MH17. 747's number is also skewed (by about 10%) due to 3 incidents involving bombing and missile shootdown. By and large though, most plane crashes are due to human error, mostly by pilot. Terrorism, as well as maintenance or engineering defects are pretty rare.