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> Metaculus predicts a 75% likelihood of an attempt to influence the 2024 US presidential election with AI-driven misinformation. Hasn't that already happened?

• davidmanheim 3y ago
  It's more specific than that once they actually operationalize the question: This question resolves as YES if, in Meta's 2024 Q4 Quarterly Adversarial Threat Report, Meta claims that there was at least one "coordinated inauthentic behavior" that specifically pertained to the 2024 US Presidential election, and Meta suspects was primarily conducted via AI.
  • notahacker 3y ago
    The operationalized question seems to be more of a bet on what Meta admits happens on its platform than what happens! We know that people aiming to influence the elections use bots to inflate particular sentiments, statistical techniques which are arguably 'AI' to target messaging and have the capability to effortlessly generate varations on content using LLMs... it'd almost be odd if people didn't do so in a coordinated manner for the US election.
• croddin 3y ago
  It was fake images not fake voices, but yeah looks like it has already happened, not sure if it fully meets the criteria in the market. https://www.npr.org/2023/06/08/1181097435/desantis-campaign-shares-apparent-ai-generated-fake-images-of-trump-and-fauci https://www.npr.org/2023/06/08/1181097435/desantis-campaign-...