4 ms·

As a comparison, TSMC wafers cost: Size Cost/Wafer % Increase ---- ---------- --------- 10nm $5,992 7nm $9,346

As a comparison, TSMC wafers cost: Size Cost/Wafer % Increase ---- ---------- --------- 10nm $5,992 7nm $9,346 55% 5nm $16,988 81% 3nm $20,000* (est.) 17% 2nm $25,000* (est.) 25% https://hardwaresfera.com/en/noticias/hardware/precio-oblea-tsmc-5nm/ https://hardwaresfera.com/en/noticias/hardware/precio-oblea-... https://www.siliconexpert.com/blog/tsmc-3nm-wafer/ https://www.siliconexpert.com/blog/tsmc-3nm-wafer/

jbms 3y ago
If a 300mm wafer is 125g, that's $200k per kg. Right now gold per kg is $61,562.
- postalrat 3y ago
  Gold with comparible printed circuits is much more expensive.
ksec 3y ago
>I expect the same for 7nm. Both 12nm and 7nm will be much more affordable in 2020. Right now the uncertainty is 5nm and 3nm. Both are technically achievable, the problem is cost. At the moment 5nm+ cost structure looks like exclusive to certain industry and clients. [1] That was my oldest comment I could find on HN made in 2017. Although my projection was made on Anandtech some time around 2016. I was originally projecting a slow down to 3 years cadence post 5nm at 3 / 2nm. But at the time there were no "Trillion Dollar" company and AI wasn't a thing. I was also at the time ignorant of HyperScaler's volume. Even if all of that will allow us to go further, 2nm in 2025, 1.4nm in 2027 and 1nm in 2029 / 2030. Surely the hypotheses remains, that at some point the market will not be able to justify the cost of new node. And will have to amortized over a longer period of time. At 1nm, if it were to cost $30K per Wafer, a 100mm die would cost $50 at 100% yield. That is excluding the potential $2 - $3B design cost. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14835609 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14835609
grumple 3y ago
Your first link prices per chip makes it look like it's about 71 chips per wafer for 5nm at $238 per chip. If we get the same number of chips per wafer at 2nm, that's about $350 per chip.
- alberth 3y ago
  The cost increase is the same, on a % basis, regardless if it's per chip or per wafer. Size Cost/Wafer % Difference ==== ========== ============ 5nm $16,988 2nm $25,000 47% It's a 47% increase in Cost/Wafer from 5nm to 2nm Size Cost/Chip % Difference ==== ========== ============ 5nm $238 2nm $350 47% It's the same 47% increase in Cost/Chip (as it is for Cost/Wafer).
  - grumple 3y ago
    I'd hope so, because I calculated the 350 from the other 3 numbers xD

jbms 3y ago

If a 300mm wafer is 125g, that's $200k per kg. Right now gold per kg is $61,562.

postalrat 3y ago
Gold with comparible printed circuits is much more expensive.

ksec 3y ago

>I expect the same for 7nm. Both 12nm and 7nm will be much more affordable in 2020. Right now the uncertainty is 5nm and 3nm. Both are technically achievable, the problem is cost. At the moment 5nm+ cost structure looks like exclusive to certain industry and clients. [1] That was my oldest comment I could find on HN made in 2017. Although my projection was made on Anandtech some time around 2016. I was originally projecting a slow down to 3 years cadence post 5nm at 3 / 2nm. But at the time there were no "Trillion Dollar" company and AI wasn't a thing. I was also at the time ignorant of HyperScaler's volume. Even if all of that will allow us to go further, 2nm in 2025, 1.4nm in 2027 and 1nm in 2029 / 2030. Surely the hypotheses remains, that at some point the market will not be able to justify the cost of new node. And will have to amortized over a longer period of time. At 1nm, if it were to cost $30K per Wafer, a 100mm die would cost $50 at 100% yield. That is excluding the potential $2 - $3B design cost. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14835609 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14835609

grumple 3y ago

Your first link prices per chip makes it look like it's about 71 chips per wafer for 5nm at $238 per chip. If we get the same number of chips per wafer at 2nm, that's about $350 per chip.

alberth 3y ago
The cost increase is the same, on a % basis, regardless if it's per chip or per wafer. Size Cost/Wafer % Difference ==== ========== ============ 5nm $16,988 2nm $25,000 47% It's a 47% increase in Cost/Wafer from 5nm to 2nm Size Cost/Chip % Difference ==== ========== ============ 5nm $238 2nm $350 47% It's the same 47% increase in Cost/Chip (as it is for Cost/Wafer).
- grumple 3y ago
  I'd hope so, because I calculated the 350 from the other 3 numbers xD