I guess that's fair. I don't really run any numbers when I update my beliefs because usually the "winning" hypothesis enjoys near-saturation of my trusted sourc

I guess that's fair. I don't really run any numbers when I update my beliefs because usually the "winning" hypothesis enjoys near-saturation of my trusted sources and often the "plausible but novel rationalization" turns out to be a unique snowflake in the landscape. If I notice the same novel argument getting picked up from somewhat-independent multiple directions I revisit it and apply a more rigorous rethink. This is what I mean by a "statistical" approach. Perhaps some other word would have been better. I do, however, pretty regularly sit down with some graph paper or an envelope and review/diversify my trusted sources.