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People who are good at rationalizing can create a compelling argument in support of almost any position. I like to use a statistical approach where I note the p
by c22 3y ago
People who are good at rationalizing can create a compelling argument in support of almost any position. I like to use a statistical approach where I note the prevalence of each compelling argument across a variety of sources.
- bee_rider 3y agoSame, except I weigh the average based on whether or not the source agrees with my original off-the-cuff take!
- c22 3y agoDownvoters: Do you disagree that people who are good at rationalizing can create compelling arguments? Or do you disagree with using a statistical approach to vet competing arguments? Asking for a friend!
- _Algernon_ 3y agoTo be clear, I didn't downvote, but I guess people find it hard to believe that you sit down to do the calculations for a Bayesian update of your belief state for each piece of information you encounter. I assume that your "statistical approach" translates to a much more haphazardly approach that's similar to how other people do it (gut feeling, based on rules of thumb and heuristics), and describing it as statistical is disingenious.
- c22 3y agoI guess that's fair. I don't really run any numbers when I update my beliefs because usually the "winning" hypothesis enjoys near-saturation of my trusted sources and often the "plausible but novel rationalization" turns out to be a unique snowflake in the landscape. If I notice the same novel argument getting picked up from somewhat-independent multiple directions I revisit it and apply a more rigorous rethink. This is what I mean by a "statistical" approach. Perhaps some other word would have been better. I do, however, pretty regularly sit down with some graph paper or an envelope and review/diversify my trusted sources.