2 ms·

I think the reservation is that when you offer subsidies for electric cars you can be damn confident that it will displace a gas car. For e-bikes it's less clea

by Spivak 3y ago

I think the reservation is that when you offer subsidies for electric cars you can be damn confident that it will displace a gas car. For e-bikes it's less clear and they might end up displacing bikes for recreation which is arguably a net-negative. I think instead of a POS subsidy I would make it a fairly substantial tax credit if you had fewer registered vehicles in your household than adults and keep it rolling every year. And for e-bikes specifically you can do the same sort of thing in addition, if you commit to not having a registered ICE vehicle for 1 year you get say an up to $2000 rebate on the purchase of an e-bike you can claim every so often like maybe 5 years.

rcpt 3y ago
> For e-bikes it's less clear Sounds like you've never had one. They are absolutely game changing.
- sneak 3y ago
  They're lifechanging if you drive them in the same roads as most vehicle drivers (in the US). If you're lucky, the change to your life is swift and painless. If you're not, it can be months or years until you walk again.
  - Clubber 3y ago
    I rode motorcycles for 10+ years and gave it up after I read articles about people getting killed in my area every day for 2 weeks straight. I also had a young child at the time. I'm more afraid of riding a bicycle in traffic than a motorcycle. Some people are straight up aggressive against bicycle riders.
    - htag 3y ago
      I ride motorcycles, bicycles, and more recently e-bikes. The statistics for injury/fatality are worse than cars. However there's a few things you can do to significantly decrease risk of injury and the severity of the injury. The top three things are 1. Do not combine alcohol with the activity. A disproportionate ratio of fatalities involve the operator having some alcohol in the blood stream. I'll throw things like "being hydrated" and "not tired" into this bullet. 2. Using the correct safety gear. The amount of gear I wear is well above the minimum legal requirements. Specifically the DOT helmet certification is a joke compared to every other motorcycle helmet certification on the market. 3. Rider training. You get significant insurance deductions for taking a course every 2 years. That's because staying fresh on your training actually has a huge impact on accident likelihood.
- Spivak 3y ago
  I in fact own one, it's very nice. It also did not displace my car because I live in a burb and most places of consequence are a highway journey away. I don't think I should get the tax credit because of that. My environmental footprint hasn't really been reduced.
jeffbee 3y ago
Eh I think there is scant hard evidence on the displacement effect of EVs. They are often bought as little-used second cars, which is shown by their much smaller share of VMT than their fleet share implies. And a recent WEF report said that ebikes already displace more oil demand globally than electric cars and are growing faster.
FlagsAreFun 3y ago
This is the same for e-scooter rideshare schemes. Much of the evidence points to escooter use replacing walking short distances, so environmentally it can be a net negative overall.
- Spivak 3y ago
  Honestly the fact that they all become trash is why scooters annoy me. Like sure fine on a long enough time scale pretty much everything becomes trash but man they are not built to last.
  - chrismartin 3y ago
    Are they not built to last, or are they just abused and neglected? I suspect that personally-owned scooters tend to be kept somewhere safe and taken care of. VC-owned rental scooters tend to get trashed, because no one suffers a personal loss if a particular scooter becomes trash.
- throw1230 3y ago
  I think the fact that e-scooters are more efficient on "distance travelled per watt" than humans, it might still be a positive
chrismartin 3y ago
> when you offer subsidies for electric cars you can be damn confident that it will displace a gas car. For e-bikes it's less clear Is it? I could imagine someone saying: "Driving my new Model 3 is much cheaper than my old truck, and more comfortable, so I take more trips around the city. Congestion isn't so bad with autopilot and podcasts." Or, someone in a dense city: "We got by without a car at all, but we thought about buying an EV and this subsidy made up our minds"
- Spivak 3y ago
  > We got by without a car at all, but we thought about buying an EV and this subsidy made up our minds. There's no way given how much parking costs, the paltry subsidy wouldn't be the tipping point.

by Spivak 3y ago

rcpt 3y ago

> For e-bikes it's less clear Sounds like you've never had one. They are absolutely game changing.

sneak 3y ago
They're lifechanging if you drive them in the same roads as most vehicle drivers (in the US). If you're lucky, the change to your life is swift and painless. If you're not, it can be months or years until you walk again.
- Clubber 3y ago
  I rode motorcycles for 10+ years and gave it up after I read articles about people getting killed in my area every day for 2 weeks straight. I also had a young child at the time. I'm more afraid of riding a bicycle in traffic than a motorcycle. Some people are straight up aggressive against bicycle riders.
  - htag 3y ago
    I ride motorcycles, bicycles, and more recently e-bikes. The statistics for injury/fatality are worse than cars. However there's a few things you can do to significantly decrease risk of injury and the severity of the injury. The top three things are 1. Do not combine alcohol with the activity. A disproportionate ratio of fatalities involve the operator having some alcohol in the blood stream. I'll throw things like "being hydrated" and "not tired" into this bullet. 2. Using the correct safety gear. The amount of gear I wear is well above the minimum legal requirements. Specifically the DOT helmet certification is a joke compared to every other motorcycle helmet certification on the market. 3. Rider training. You get significant insurance deductions for taking a course every 2 years. That's because staying fresh on your training actually has a huge impact on accident likelihood.
Spivak 3y ago
I in fact own one, it's very nice. It also did not displace my car because I live in a burb and most places of consequence are a highway journey away. I don't think I should get the tax credit because of that. My environmental footprint hasn't really been reduced.

jeffbee 3y ago

Eh I think there is scant hard evidence on the displacement effect of EVs. They are often bought as little-used second cars, which is shown by their much smaller share of VMT than their fleet share implies. And a recent WEF report said that ebikes already displace more oil demand globally than electric cars and are growing faster.

FlagsAreFun 3y ago

This is the same for e-scooter rideshare schemes. Much of the evidence points to escooter use replacing walking short distances, so environmentally it can be a net negative overall.

Spivak 3y ago
Honestly the fact that they all become trash is why scooters annoy me. Like sure fine on a long enough time scale pretty much everything becomes trash but man they are not built to last.
- chrismartin 3y ago
  Are they not built to last, or are they just abused and neglected? I suspect that personally-owned scooters tend to be kept somewhere safe and taken care of. VC-owned rental scooters tend to get trashed, because no one suffers a personal loss if a particular scooter becomes trash.
throw1230 3y ago
I think the fact that e-scooters are more efficient on "distance travelled per watt" than humans, it might still be a positive

chrismartin 3y ago

> when you offer subsidies for electric cars you can be damn confident that it will displace a gas car. For e-bikes it's less clear Is it? I could imagine someone saying: "Driving my new Model 3 is much cheaper than my old truck, and more comfortable, so I take more trips around the city. Congestion isn't so bad with autopilot and podcasts." Or, someone in a dense city: "We got by without a car at all, but we thought about buying an EV and this subsidy made up our minds"

Spivak 3y ago
> We got by without a car at all, but we thought about buying an EV and this subsidy made up our minds. There's no way given how much parking costs, the paltry subsidy wouldn't be the tipping point.