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China’s solar is now at twice the capacity of its coal power
- ggm 3y agoIt is worth pointing out that many things change by 'rate of change' before the actual downward slope is detected. So, pre-planned Chinese coal build outs (and India) will continue, beyond the point we knew we're heading to an inflection point. In some reporting interval, they may even "accellerate" because normally they may make 2-3 a year (for instance) but because of regulatory outcomes deliver 5 or more in some reporting interval. My only reason for saying this is people will continue to post "but Chyna is building coal" when the reasons will be "China is completing its investments in coal which predates the radical drop in the cost of PV and wind, in deployment" Construction planning is 5+ years lead time. If you have committed to work, sometimes building out is worth it more than the social cost consequences. Its classic externality stuff: if you have invested in coal, and shipping coal, and in selling coal you are damn sure to want to realize the profits of that commitment. Even a reduced operating life is better than being pushed aside for Solar or Wind, if all you have is your coal contracts. We really are now planning a post FF future. And, thats good. Of course it will be a bumpy road. Converting from horses to cars instituted massive social change, not the least of which was a need to spend on roads because cars were heavier and more destructive than horses, and bitumen build outs acellerated. I have no doubt some Horse Copers and Farriers decried this waste of social capital, as they wrapped their tools up and moved into other trade.