A talent for identifying talent needs to be supported with numbers and effect sizes. The relative absence of numbers from the conversation is what allows many

A talent for identifying talent needs to be supported with numbers and effect sizes. The relative absence of numbers from the conversation is what allows many directors of football/soccer (those who recommend the purchase or sell of players) to boast about their stature as talent scouts. Indeed, it is not surprising that directors of soccer focus on successes and tend to gloss over the many blunders made. Which makes it difficult, as in many other fields, to distinguish the role of luck and ability in successes and failures. Almost always, in my experience, those with the most money and at least an average "eye" succeed in doing the best that can be done: everything else is a game of chance. A more sophisticated and technically oriented person would say that the most that can be done is to increase the odds of success, but then we are all left to the whims of fate: the young soccer player who many thought would be a sure bet will turn out to be one among many, and the average player at age 16 will have the growth spurt in the next two years that will make his body more conducive to stellar success (but was the growth spurt predictable?). What I can say is that there have been several attempts to create a special agency for the identification and management of talent in the technology industry, but none has turned out to be more than a higher-level contracting firm.