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As someone who participates in these lotteries, the lack of transparency is the biggest issue. If there's a way to view estimated odds I have not seen it. Addi
by csharpminor 3y ago
As someone who participates in these lotteries, the lack of transparency is the biggest issue. If there's a way to view estimated odds I have not seen it.
Additionally, these lotteries usually have a second level of rules that impact your odds. For example, day of week or starting trailhead. I would gladly shift dates / routes and apply for different lotteries, but I have little basis to make those decisions on.
- pc86 3y agoIf there are only 330 permits don't the odds depend entirely on how many people sign up?
- anthlax 3y agoPerhaps the above comment means that the secondary factors affect the denominator - i.e more people go hiking on Saturday, so entering the Saturday lottery is worse than entering the Wednesday one
- csharpminor 3y agoExactly, and it impacts the denominator by a great margin. The value of the lottery ticket to me is a function of the cost, odds, timing and interest I have in the destination. If the odds of one trailhead are 1000x lower than another one that is comparable across the other variables then I'm needlessly overpaying, and Booze Allen pockets that inefficiency.
- csharpminor 3y agoSure, but they could display odds from past lotteries or provide current odds at time of purchase. You really have no clue what you're getting when you give them your $6-$15.