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I love nuclear. And I think nuclear power has a good shot at a renaissance. But I think nuclear has a problem internationally. Proliferation. I once heard pers

I love nuclear. And I think nuclear power has a good shot at a renaissance. But I think nuclear has a problem internationally. Proliferation. I once heard personally the former defense secretary Robert Gates that if Japan wants to build a bomb, they could do it in a matter of weeks. Online I heard numerous times people agreeing with this assessment, and adding South Korea too. One might say that Japan and South Korea are the "good guys", what's the problem? The problem is of course that you can't guarantee how long good guys remain good guys. And that there is nothing special about South Korea and Japan, basically any country that has a few nuclear power plants can at some point acquire whatever know-how Japan and South Korea have. How comfortable would you go to sleep at night if Turkey had nukes? What if there is an Islamic revolution in the United Arab Emirates and ISIS takes possession of 4 GigaWatt scale reactors?

pfdietz 3y ago
Japan had a fast reactor program. To fuel that fast reactor, they had spent fuel from their reactors reprocessed (in Europe) and the plutonium separated. They have a stockpile of tonnes of reactor grade Pu (which, contrary to assertions, can be used in weapons, particularly if you have access to tritium for boosting, which they do.) Japan's fast reactor program has enabled them to do a kind of deniable proliferation, stockpiling enough Pu for ~1000 bombs, without actually building the bombs yet. Smart of them; it's an insurance policy against China in case the US nuclear umbrella were to suddenly disappear. To power the world with nuclear needs breeders, so Pu separation will likely be everywhere. And the Pu obtained from the blanket of a fast breeder is even purer 239Pu than so-called "weapons grade".
- credit_guy 3y ago
  In the end it does not matter how Japan acquired the ability to build the bomb. I just searched wikipedia, and it appears this ability is widely known and acknowledged. It even has a name: nuclear latency [1], the ability of a state to develop a nuke on a short notice, also known as the "Japan option". Wikipedia lists that these countries have this ability: Japan, Canada, Australia, Germany, The Netherlands, South Korea, Taiwan. All these countries want to have friendly relations with the US, so presumably they would not build a nuke without first asking for permission. But if these relations were to go sour then we'd see a few new nuclear states. Just today there was discussion here on Hacker News about Sweden pursuing more nuclear power towards its goal to decarbonize. Sweden is not a NATO member yet. Could they one day decide that a few nukes could be the best insurance against Russian aggression? Finland is a new NATO member, just like Poland. Both share an uncomfortably long border with Russia. Both have numerous nuclear power plants. Will they one day seek nukes? Or at least seek to acquire "the Japan option"? [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_latency https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_latency

pfdietz 3y ago

Japan had a fast reactor program. To fuel that fast reactor, they had spent fuel from their reactors reprocessed (in Europe) and the plutonium separated. They have a stockpile of tonnes of reactor grade Pu (which, contrary to assertions, can be used in weapons, particularly if you have access to tritium for boosting, which they do.) Japan's fast reactor program has enabled them to do a kind of deniable proliferation, stockpiling enough Pu for ~1000 bombs, without actually building the bombs yet. Smart of them; it's an insurance policy against China in case the US nuclear umbrella were to suddenly disappear. To power the world with nuclear needs breeders, so Pu separation will likely be everywhere. And the Pu obtained from the blanket of a fast breeder is even purer 239Pu than so-called "weapons grade".

credit_guy 3y ago
In the end it does not matter how Japan acquired the ability to build the bomb. I just searched wikipedia, and it appears this ability is widely known and acknowledged. It even has a name: nuclear latency [1], the ability of a state to develop a nuke on a short notice, also known as the "Japan option". Wikipedia lists that these countries have this ability: Japan, Canada, Australia, Germany, The Netherlands, South Korea, Taiwan. All these countries want to have friendly relations with the US, so presumably they would not build a nuke without first asking for permission. But if these relations were to go sour then we'd see a few new nuclear states. Just today there was discussion here on Hacker News about Sweden pursuing more nuclear power towards its goal to decarbonize. Sweden is not a NATO member yet. Could they one day decide that a few nukes could be the best insurance against Russian aggression? Finland is a new NATO member, just like Poland. Both share an uncomfortably long border with Russia. Both have numerous nuclear power plants. Will they one day seek nukes? Or at least seek to acquire "the Japan option"? [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_latency https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_latency