That's a bit too cynic. It's a good rule of thumb, but people shouldn't take it as 100% true. I personally have left academia, mostly for personal reasons befo

That's a bit too cynic. It's a good rule of thumb, but people shouldn't take it as 100% true. I personally have left academia, mostly for personal reasons before I could really know for certain whether I would have made it or not, and I know some very competent people who stayed and managed to get good positions without having to compromise who they are. I think the problems start when you're competent but not competent enough, and your ambitions don't align with how competent you are. That may sound harsh, but I think it's true (with admittedly some variance depending on the exact field you're in).