1) The Russian militias about to be tricked to join Wagner against the Kremlin dodged a bullet directly to their heads. Ukrainian army not reacting hastily to

1) The Russian militias about to be tricked to join Wagner against the Kremlin dodged a bullet directly to their heads. Ukrainian army not reacting hastily to manbearprig's display was also a wise move. 2) The event showed how fragile are both (Kremlin and Wagner) currently. Prigozhin has declined his unique chance to recycle from War criminal into a top respected politician in the PostPutinism. Making a lot of noise bragging about taking the Kremlin in hours, just to end exiled in Belarus has no sense. Is too risky unless the only point was a desperate attempt to escape from a certain death in the war front while saving face. 3) The recent visit of African leaders had some influence in the decision, probably Wagner has been spoon-feed with African gold and diamonds since 2014, often taken by assassination and force. This can happen only with the complicity of several African governments and with Putin receiving a part of the loot. But the current lack of grain hits directly against the political survival of those people in power. Now everybody knows who is behind Wagner, so the African politicians must choose between either supporting Wagner (while praying not to be dethroned by them in the future), or not aggravating the man who holds the key of the grain in Kremlin (and, with luck, avoiding a situation of famine and rebellion by their own citizens). Goldmine's access could close for Wagner tomorrow, and Putin would still be receiving his part by a different channel. 4) Wagner's future is bleak and Prigozhin future is uncertain. In the best of cases Wagner will be put in a icebox and let alone to lick its wounds but without a new sponsor the private army can't sustain themselves and will disintegrate in several gangs. Putin was Cesar once, but now is looking more and more like a new Nero, so Prigozhin could just wait the opportunity to return to PostPutin Russia, keep a low profile and have a future as oligarch even if Wagner don't survive. In any case Belarus could be a complicated retire, where a rogue tactical nuke could "malfunction" at any time, creating a plausible deniability situation for Putin. Lukashenko and Prighozin could be beheaded in one single movement, assimilating Belarus into Russia and giving Putin something to show and a sort of "victory".