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> his “preflight checklist,” making sure he’d accounted and planned for all the variables that could go wrong. "Nothing can happen to me, because I've planned

• Vecr 3y ago
  Not even a Black Swan, in Taleb's original. It's a known unknown. Every time I write a checklist I know it's going to be somewhat wrong, even if I have other people go over it. I also know there are things I should have checklists for but don't, but I don't know what they are. Another known unknown. A real black swan is when thousands of dedicated people have thought about the issue and miss it. Thinking your checklists that no one or only a few other people looked at are perfect is just a major lack of intellectual humility.