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I can only imagine what it’s going to be like in a few countries’ intelligence departments as well. Several countries with well-regarded intelligence operation

by MrFoof 3y ago

I can only imagine what it’s going to be like in a few countries’ intelligence departments as well. Several countries with well-regarded intelligence operations have functionally signaled, “Well, we didn’t expect this!” The rest of the planet really didn’t see this coming on Friday. It was borderline late 1990s military-espionage-themed Hollywood action movie stuff. There’s likely a couple of intelligence orgs that aren’t happy they ended up flat-footed, and didn’t see this coming when it did.

ivan_gammel 3y ago
Many people didn’t expect 24.02 to happen, thinking that it was too obvious that the attack will fail. Yet it happened, because Putin felt cornered and modern Russian masculine culture does not allow to step back. Same with Prigozhin: we could not see it happening, because we did not know how he felt when he decided to start planning the raid. Rationality of the strong leaders is often exaggerated: their chain of reasoning may be generally perfect, but the original assumptions can be purely emotional. Predicting them is an difficult task for intelligence services and getting inside data from Wagner to crack it would not be easy.
- ROTMetro 3y ago
  According to Prigozhin's very public statements and using his inside knowledge, it didn't happen because Putin felt cornered.
  - ivan_gammel 3y ago
    You don’t believe his statements, do you? All of them have a purpose and it is not to inform public about truth.
- Pigalowda 3y ago
  Cornered from seizing crimea in 2014 and creating/supporting two Donbas breakaway regions? I don’t think he was cornered at all, just impatient. He’s 70 years old and the conflict had frozen for 8 years. Barely anyone even cared in western europe/US. That’s perfect for Russia! But can he really live for much longer? He may not think he has many more years to dedicate to the task. Now the invasion has completely backfired and he is in a political corner he backed himself into. If your theory of Russian machismo is correct, he can’t back down from trying to beat up a smaller weaker country - and he simply can’t beat them. So he has to lose in Ukraine, beat the first coup, and consolidate power simultaneously. I believe Putin will be just like Erdogan who used the 2016 “coup” to eliminate political enemies. People died in Turkey in 2016, there was damage- but Erdogan emerged stronger and won subsequent elections. Maybe there will be Russian proscription lists and purges now.
  - ivan_gammel 3y ago
    >Cornered from seizing crimea in 2014 and creating/supporting two Donbas breakaway regions? This is not how it was seen by Russian conservatives like Putin. The threat of NATO in Ukraine was not eliminated by those actions.
    - Pigalowda 3y ago
      They saw it incorrectly then. This has been one of the most tremendous unforced errors in Russian history. Now everyone realizes that they are a weak successor state who has completely squandered their military inheritance from the USSR. Russian conservatives may not realize it, which is fine, as they are willing to rapidly expend away their soviet inventory. Their modern weak economy can’t afford to rearm. They have eliminated themselves from the great game. Not only did they fail to stop NATO - it expanded and added 1,340 km of direct border contact.
      - ivan_gammel 3y ago
        No, they saw it correctly — in a world where Russia could not join NATO (Putin claims he was rejected), the threat was persistent and something had to be done with it. The biggest mistake of Putin was to rely on fake intelligence data and fake army to start the war, showing that he had only the visibility of control in recent years which was carefully created by puppet media and his own administration. A dictator in control would plan a war, not a takeover. A democratic leader would just apply for NATO and EU membership according to the procedure and work hard on improving the relationships with neighbors.
earthboundkid 3y ago
I predicted it four months ago on HN. The intelligence services are shit if they can’t predict better than me. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34830289 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34830289
- weakfish 3y ago
  That’s… not how things work. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infinite_monkey_theorem https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infinite_monkey_theorem
  - earthboundkid 3y ago
    From le Wiki, “On 27 May 2023, Igor Girkin accused Prigozhin of plotting to use the Wagner group to stage a coup within Russia…” That he was a risk of starting a coup was obvious to any but the most blinded observer of Russia.

by MrFoof 3y ago

ivan_gammel 3y ago

Many people didn’t expect 24.02 to happen, thinking that it was too obvious that the attack will fail. Yet it happened, because Putin felt cornered and modern Russian masculine culture does not allow to step back. Same with Prigozhin: we could not see it happening, because we did not know how he felt when he decided to start planning the raid. Rationality of the strong leaders is often exaggerated: their chain of reasoning may be generally perfect, but the original assumptions can be purely emotional. Predicting them is an difficult task for intelligence services and getting inside data from Wagner to crack it would not be easy.

ROTMetro 3y ago
According to Prigozhin's very public statements and using his inside knowledge, it didn't happen because Putin felt cornered.
- ivan_gammel 3y ago
  You don’t believe his statements, do you? All of them have a purpose and it is not to inform public about truth.
Pigalowda 3y ago
Cornered from seizing crimea in 2014 and creating/supporting two Donbas breakaway regions? I don’t think he was cornered at all, just impatient. He’s 70 years old and the conflict had frozen for 8 years. Barely anyone even cared in western europe/US. That’s perfect for Russia! But can he really live for much longer? He may not think he has many more years to dedicate to the task. Now the invasion has completely backfired and he is in a political corner he backed himself into. If your theory of Russian machismo is correct, he can’t back down from trying to beat up a smaller weaker country - and he simply can’t beat them. So he has to lose in Ukraine, beat the first coup, and consolidate power simultaneously. I believe Putin will be just like Erdogan who used the 2016 “coup” to eliminate political enemies. People died in Turkey in 2016, there was damage- but Erdogan emerged stronger and won subsequent elections. Maybe there will be Russian proscription lists and purges now.
- ivan_gammel 3y ago
  >Cornered from seizing crimea in 2014 and creating/supporting two Donbas breakaway regions? This is not how it was seen by Russian conservatives like Putin. The threat of NATO in Ukraine was not eliminated by those actions.
  - Pigalowda 3y ago
    They saw it incorrectly then. This has been one of the most tremendous unforced errors in Russian history. Now everyone realizes that they are a weak successor state who has completely squandered their military inheritance from the USSR. Russian conservatives may not realize it, which is fine, as they are willing to rapidly expend away their soviet inventory. Their modern weak economy can’t afford to rearm. They have eliminated themselves from the great game. Not only did they fail to stop NATO - it expanded and added 1,340 km of direct border contact.
    - ivan_gammel 3y ago
      No, they saw it correctly — in a world where Russia could not join NATO (Putin claims he was rejected), the threat was persistent and something had to be done with it. The biggest mistake of Putin was to rely on fake intelligence data and fake army to start the war, showing that he had only the visibility of control in recent years which was carefully created by puppet media and his own administration. A dictator in control would plan a war, not a takeover. A democratic leader would just apply for NATO and EU membership according to the procedure and work hard on improving the relationships with neighbors.

earthboundkid 3y ago

I predicted it four months ago on HN. The intelligence services are shit if they can’t predict better than me. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34830289 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34830289

weakfish 3y ago
That’s… not how things work. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infinite_monkey_theorem https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infinite_monkey_theorem
- earthboundkid 3y ago
  From le Wiki, “On 27 May 2023, Igor Girkin accused Prigozhin of plotting to use the Wagner group to stage a coup within Russia…” That he was a risk of starting a coup was obvious to any but the most blinded observer of Russia.