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As someone who has family in northern Ukraine I am now very worried about the possibility of another, Wagner-led offensive from Belarus to Kyiv (the only viable

by option 3y ago

As someone who has family in northern Ukraine I am now very worried about the possibility of another, Wagner-led offensive from Belarus to Kyiv (the only viable route to Kyiv). Lukashenko is not an independent agent, he is Putin’s slave. Zero chances Prigozin just retires in Belaruss.

ceejayoz 3y ago
The last one came through Belarus, didn't it? With Russia basically as prepared as they'd get, and with a pretty decent element of suprise against a fairly unprepared opponent? I don't think anyone's getting near Kyiv again in this war.
- option 3y ago
  those initial units were incompetent. Wagner demonstrated themselves as the most competent russist units
  - jncfhnb 3y ago
    Not really. Wagner units haven’t actually performed that well. Better than the clown car assault on Kyiv, but no remarkable successes. The bravado around Bakhmut is not compelling. At the end of the day they have the same shitty equipment and that’s hard to overcome. Human wave tactics and leveling cities with artillery can work for urban warfare. It wouldn’t work for actual defensive lines.
  - ceejayoz 3y ago
    > Wagner demonstrated themselves as the most competent russist units That seems to be a low bar; they spent nine months taking a town of 70k in a separatist province. Kyiv is a... different target, and I fully expect the Belarussian border is well fortified now.
    - ivan_gammel 3y ago
      > they spent nine months taking a town of 70k in a separatist province I do not think this can be a measure of anything. Just a reminder: Verdun was smaller in 1914-1916.
    - option 3y ago
      Border with Russia and Belarus is huge. A monumental effort for any country to fortify.
      - ceejayoz 3y ago
        Against individuals on foot? Sure. Against an army of tanks large enough to take Kyiv? Only a few options. Recall that the first attempt stalled in a giant traffic jam because they couldn’t leave the road. https://www.npr.org/2023/03/26/1164586980/ukraine-russia-war-belarus-border https://www.npr.org/2023/03/26/1164586980/ukraine-russia-war... Ukraine has blown up a bunch of bridges since that attempt, too. https://tass.com/world/1537675 https://tass.com/world/1537675
  - pvaldes 3y ago
    Keep trowing jailbirds against a meat grinder until the machine chokes was his main strategy. Losing thousands of men in a very consistent basis is being brutal and ruthless, not competent. They just played with different cards and rules than the other soldiers.

by option 3y ago

ceejayoz 3y ago

The last one came through Belarus, didn't it? With Russia basically as prepared as they'd get, and with a pretty decent element of suprise against a fairly unprepared opponent? I don't think anyone's getting near Kyiv again in this war.

option 3y ago
those initial units were incompetent. Wagner demonstrated themselves as the most competent russist units
- jncfhnb 3y ago
  Not really. Wagner units haven’t actually performed that well. Better than the clown car assault on Kyiv, but no remarkable successes. The bravado around Bakhmut is not compelling. At the end of the day they have the same shitty equipment and that’s hard to overcome. Human wave tactics and leveling cities with artillery can work for urban warfare. It wouldn’t work for actual defensive lines.
- ceejayoz 3y ago
  > Wagner demonstrated themselves as the most competent russist units That seems to be a low bar; they spent nine months taking a town of 70k in a separatist province. Kyiv is a... different target, and I fully expect the Belarussian border is well fortified now.
  - ivan_gammel 3y ago
    > they spent nine months taking a town of 70k in a separatist province I do not think this can be a measure of anything. Just a reminder: Verdun was smaller in 1914-1916.
  - option 3y ago
    Border with Russia and Belarus is huge. A monumental effort for any country to fortify.
    - ceejayoz 3y ago
      Against individuals on foot? Sure. Against an army of tanks large enough to take Kyiv? Only a few options. Recall that the first attempt stalled in a giant traffic jam because they couldn’t leave the road. https://www.npr.org/2023/03/26/1164586980/ukraine-russia-war-belarus-border https://www.npr.org/2023/03/26/1164586980/ukraine-russia-war... Ukraine has blown up a bunch of bridges since that attempt, too. https://tass.com/world/1537675 https://tass.com/world/1537675
- pvaldes 3y ago
  Keep trowing jailbirds against a meat grinder until the machine chokes was his main strategy. Losing thousands of men in a very consistent basis is being brutal and ruthless, not competent. They just played with different cards and rules than the other soldiers.