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This seems absurd to turn around after commiting this -- an armed rebellion. I've just read a Russian telegram channel post (https://t.me/volyamedia/703 https:
by culebron21 3y ago
This seems absurd to turn around after commiting this -- an armed rebellion.
I've just read a Russian telegram channel post (https://t.me/volyamedia/703 https://t.me/volyamedia/703) theorizing and referring to anonymous sources in higher ranks, that this was a push from the president administration and FSB against MoD, with Prigozhin being just the public side. This is of course based on anonymous sources and must be taken with caution, but it is a good explanation of what could have happened.
If we assume just 2 sides, Kremlin+MoD vs Wagner, this agreement looks impossible or a fake move.
From Kremlin position, leaving Prigozhin go away peacefully means this kind of uprisings with big demands are going to repeat. From Prigozhin's position, this means to step back after becoming an existential threat and try to co-live peacefully. Very implausible.
So I had only 2 explanations: 1) he lied and was preparing more offensive, or 2) he actually got some undeclineable offer: get some money, go abroad, or to say Afrika with another mission. But still, for Kremlin, (2) looks a very short-sighted decision and undermining of own position.
Thus, the version of an internal fight seems plausible. If we assume that the PA & FSB were ready to let the state lose this much reputation, or put their frontlines at risk of collapse during the counteroffensive, then things seem to agree with each other. (And collapsing front lines are a liability of MoD, not FSB anyway.)
- lamontcg 3y ago3. Prigozhin lashed out and got in over his head, realized he committed to a suicide mission with no political support and is trying to back out of it any way that he can. > From Kremlin position, leaving Prigozhin go away peacefully means this kind of uprisings with big demands are going to repeat. From Prigozhin's position, this means to step back after becoming an existential threat and try to co-live peacefully. Very implausible. Yes, he's probably a dead man walking, that doesn't mean that the Kremlin can't agree to allow him to walk away peacefully while they come up with a way to assassinate him. The Kremlin will better understand that trope about diplomacy being the art of saying "nice doggy" until you can find a rock.
- culebron21 3y agoWell, this is plausible too, because 1) I've not seen signs of him being a suicidal fanatic, and 2) there were witnesses that he didn't amass enough support from the military.
- hsjqllzlfkf 3y agoDoesn't that rely on assuming that prigozhin is an idiot? I don't think that's the case.
- lamontcg 3y agoHaven't we had enough examples of smart people being stupid recently?
- rasz 3y agoHow is the current situation better than establishing Moscow beachhead and announcing in TV you are the new temporary president? Lets not kid ourselves, Moscow wouldnt hold, all they had was light infantry with few armored cars and garbage/dump trucks filled with sand to block the streets. Most likely military would just let them pass like in Rostov.
- im3w1l 3y agoI'm thinking along similar lines - he must have been supported by some powerful people from the shadows. Not sure if it's the FSB and president though, they both came out against Wagner. Maybe a faction within FSB though? Maybe some oligarchs? As for why he withdraw, I don't think it was because he got a sweet deal, but rather that his backers wavered in their support and giving him an offer of exile was the only favor they were capable of granting him.
- macintux 3y agoI can’t imagine Putin would flee Moscow were he the puppet master. And he comes out of this looking very weak.