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>To me this looked like an “all in”, but apparently, they think it wasn’t. What could have convinced him and his troops that any promises made would be held? M

by brazzy 3y ago

>To me this looked like an “all in”, but apparently, they think it wasn’t. What could have convinced him and his troops that any promises made would be held? My guess is that he was counting on support from within the Russian power structure that was promised but then didn't materialize, and now he knows that following through would be suicide, and giving up at least offers a non-zero chance of survival. Another possible explanation: it was a setup, planned by Putin from beginning to end in order to improve his strongman image and eliminate Wagner as a threat. Prigozhin was given the offer to play along and end up powerless but rich - and alive. That offer could be credible because if Prigozhin gives up control of Wagner, he helped Putin and is not a threat to him anymore.

pastacacioepepe 3y ago
The Putin's setup theory is the most convincing I've heard so far. One thing that doesn't make sense to me is that Prigozhin used an alleged Russian missile attack on a wagner base as justification to start this charade. If the Russian government really wanted to neutralize Wagner, one can only think they would have taken more effective and quick measures to do so, rather than a half-hassed missile attack. There's no logic behind it, some piece of the puzzle is missing.
- justsomehnguy 3y ago
  > used an alleged Russian missile attack on a wagner base You can't assemble those forces in a moments notice. You can't expect no resistance on the way to the capital.
  - pastacacioepepe 3y ago
    True, adds to the idea that the missile attack was a ruse. Everything was prepared in advance.
- pvaldes 3y ago
  Prigozhin videos from the last months show a man trying to find a credible excuse to get out from the frying pan, without being prosecuted by desertion, and before being killed while sleeping by his own men trapped in Bahmut. In some way he succeeded into putting as much distance as possible between himself and the Ukraine counterattack (even if this means selling Wagner to the Russian army in exchange for a golden ticket for himself and the Wagner leaders). All without looking like a treason towards the rest of mercenaries. Would not surprise me if the other wagnerites will be forced to enter in the Russian army and used routinely as cannon fodder, as they did before with the Russian soldiers.
troupo 3y ago
> it was a setup, planned by Putin from beginning to end in order to improve his strongman image and eliminate Wagner as a threat. So Prigozhin: - marched unopposed until he was 200 km from Moscow - military scrambled to build defenses around Moscow - Prigozhin's forces downed at least two military aircraft - Prigozhin's forces had an unopposed military presence in Rostov, population 1.1 mln people In the end: - deal was supposrdly negotiated by a widely disrespected Lukashenko, not by Putin. - all charges dropped How's that strongman image coming along?
- squarefoot 3y ago
  > - deal was supposrdly negotiated by a widely disrespected Lukashenko, not by Putin. Lukashenko is Putin's puppet; Putin couldn't negotiate in first person without appearing as weak. It's possible that both Prigozhin and Putin tested their own strength and concluded that they both can be hurt badly. I believe that we'll know more by looking at what will happen to Shoigu and Gerasimov in the next days.
  - troupo 3y ago
    > Lukashenko is Putin's puppet; Putin couldn't negotiate in first person without appearing as weak. Ah yes, instead it was negotiated by the unpopular ridiculed Lukashenko everyone views as a clown. This makes Putin seem strong. Also strong: Putin in the morning: these traitors will be brought to justice, I authorize Ministry of Defence to use any means possible. I give you my word. Putin in the evening: we drop all charges against this military coup (who also killed at least 12 soldiers furing their march on Moscow), and I give my word the Prigozhin can just go to Belarus. So strong. It's funny how putinophiles will try to contort reality to a ridiculous degree to find an angle to prove Putin is a superhuman playing 12-dimensional chess. Now imagine any Western leader doing the same, and how you would ridicule them.
    - squarefoot 3y ago
      I didn't write that Putin's image was being strengthened by having Lukashenko act as puppet, the point is that he had to choose between being weakened or weakened and ridiculed. Also, in the same context they granted impunity to all Wagner soldiers; this must come from Putin, not Lukashenko, which has zero power in Russian affairs. Moreover, note that the two Russian officials shown talking with Prigozhin in Rostov are Shoigu's #2 and Gerasimov #2. They didn't seem entirely comfortable in that video, but that sends a message nonetheless. Also, Prigozhin never addressed Putin directly. There's a lot of stuff going on there, probably too much to draw conclusions, but I'm sure we'll see some people "disappear" or die of "natural causes" quite soon.
rasz 3y ago
>My guess is that he was counting on support from within the Russian power structure that was promised but then didn't materialize Thats not how russia works. In russia you show up with a gun, say "Im Tzar now" and everyone obeys out of fear. Occupying main centers of power in Moscow (MoD, TV, Kremlin) would be enough for Prigozhin to claim being the new ruler. That one brigade "defending" Moscow didnt even have heavy weapons. Wagner tanks would cut thru them like hot knife.
Someone 3y ago
> My guess is that he was counting on support from within the Russian power structure that was promised but then didn't materialize That makes sense, yes. It may have been real world Diplomacy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diplomacy_(game) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diplomacy_(game)): “if you attack Moscow, I’ll support you” with a backstab.

by brazzy 3y ago

pastacacioepepe 3y ago

The Putin's setup theory is the most convincing I've heard so far. One thing that doesn't make sense to me is that Prigozhin used an alleged Russian missile attack on a wagner base as justification to start this charade. If the Russian government really wanted to neutralize Wagner, one can only think they would have taken more effective and quick measures to do so, rather than a half-hassed missile attack. There's no logic behind it, some piece of the puzzle is missing.

justsomehnguy 3y ago
> used an alleged Russian missile attack on a wagner base You can't assemble those forces in a moments notice. You can't expect no resistance on the way to the capital.
- pastacacioepepe 3y ago
  True, adds to the idea that the missile attack was a ruse. Everything was prepared in advance.
pvaldes 3y ago
Prigozhin videos from the last months show a man trying to find a credible excuse to get out from the frying pan, without being prosecuted by desertion, and before being killed while sleeping by his own men trapped in Bahmut. In some way he succeeded into putting as much distance as possible between himself and the Ukraine counterattack (even if this means selling Wagner to the Russian army in exchange for a golden ticket for himself and the Wagner leaders). All without looking like a treason towards the rest of mercenaries. Would not surprise me if the other wagnerites will be forced to enter in the Russian army and used routinely as cannon fodder, as they did before with the Russian soldiers.

troupo 3y ago

> it was a setup, planned by Putin from beginning to end in order to improve his strongman image and eliminate Wagner as a threat. So Prigozhin: - marched unopposed until he was 200 km from Moscow - military scrambled to build defenses around Moscow - Prigozhin's forces downed at least two military aircraft - Prigozhin's forces had an unopposed military presence in Rostov, population 1.1 mln people In the end: - deal was supposrdly negotiated by a widely disrespected Lukashenko, not by Putin. - all charges dropped How's that strongman image coming along?

squarefoot 3y ago
> - deal was supposrdly negotiated by a widely disrespected Lukashenko, not by Putin. Lukashenko is Putin's puppet; Putin couldn't negotiate in first person without appearing as weak. It's possible that both Prigozhin and Putin tested their own strength and concluded that they both can be hurt badly. I believe that we'll know more by looking at what will happen to Shoigu and Gerasimov in the next days.
- troupo 3y ago
  > Lukashenko is Putin's puppet; Putin couldn't negotiate in first person without appearing as weak. Ah yes, instead it was negotiated by the unpopular ridiculed Lukashenko everyone views as a clown. This makes Putin seem strong. Also strong: Putin in the morning: these traitors will be brought to justice, I authorize Ministry of Defence to use any means possible. I give you my word. Putin in the evening: we drop all charges against this military coup (who also killed at least 12 soldiers furing their march on Moscow), and I give my word the Prigozhin can just go to Belarus. So strong. It's funny how putinophiles will try to contort reality to a ridiculous degree to find an angle to prove Putin is a superhuman playing 12-dimensional chess. Now imagine any Western leader doing the same, and how you would ridicule them.
  - squarefoot 3y ago
    I didn't write that Putin's image was being strengthened by having Lukashenko act as puppet, the point is that he had to choose between being weakened or weakened and ridiculed. Also, in the same context they granted impunity to all Wagner soldiers; this must come from Putin, not Lukashenko, which has zero power in Russian affairs. Moreover, note that the two Russian officials shown talking with Prigozhin in Rostov are Shoigu's #2 and Gerasimov #2. They didn't seem entirely comfortable in that video, but that sends a message nonetheless. Also, Prigozhin never addressed Putin directly. There's a lot of stuff going on there, probably too much to draw conclusions, but I'm sure we'll see some people "disappear" or die of "natural causes" quite soon.

rasz 3y ago

>My guess is that he was counting on support from within the Russian power structure that was promised but then didn't materialize Thats not how russia works. In russia you show up with a gun, say "Im Tzar now" and everyone obeys out of fear. Occupying main centers of power in Moscow (MoD, TV, Kremlin) would be enough for Prigozhin to claim being the new ruler. That one brigade "defending" Moscow didnt even have heavy weapons. Wagner tanks would cut thru them like hot knife.

Someone 3y ago

> My guess is that he was counting on support from within the Russian power structure that was promised but then didn't materialize That makes sense, yes. It may have been real world Diplomacy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diplomacy_(game) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diplomacy_(game)): “if you attack Moscow, I’ll support you” with a backstab.