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Random thoughts: Prigozhin agreed to a fake stand-down; his troops have been in action for 18 hours, this allows them to regroup and rest for a night and comme

Random thoughts: Prigozhin agreed to a fake stand-down; his troops have been in action for 18 hours, this allows them to regroup and rest for a night and commence again in the morning, with some drummed up excuse. Prigozhin didn't get the support he expected from the military, so he was was motivated to settle, but had enough support to threaten Moscow, so Putin was motivated to settle. Outcomes - a hardliner in charge of the Russian military, Putin quietly retires in a year or two, hands over reigns without the violence. Prigozhin was threatened with a tactical nuke, decided it wasn't worth it. One of Prigozhin's desired outcomes - a change of the guard in Russia's MoD was inevitable given the incompetence shown in the defense of this mutiny. Even if things got truly violent and Wagner was destroyed by force, Shoigu and Gerasimov were out. Prigozhin's communications are a mix of brutal honesty and subtle manipulation. His allies are a mix of the competent and the fanatical. Overall, the whole thing is bizarre. I'm not convinced it's over.

anigbrowl 3y ago
Yeah, I rather doubt he is using a public Telegram channel to coordinate his troops.
AnimalMuppet 3y ago
I like your first thought. That seems realistically possible. I'm not sure your second is realistic. I don't think there's any scenario where at least one of Putin and Prigozhin don't die. If Prigozhin "settles", he will be shortly assassinated. (Watch out for windows!) Putin might be able to quietly retire, but I think the odds are against that one, too.
- speakfreely 3y ago
  I would think death would be preferable to retirement for Putin. To give up his current position would simply be making him a really tempting bargaining chip for the next generation at the top, to live in unimaginable anxiety that you will be offered up to any of the thousands of enemies you've created over the past 20 years of strongman rule. What could he possibly trade to the next ruler to maintain leverage over them and indefinitely guarantee his safety? From the West, the ICC, the Islamists, the Chechens, the Ukrainians, the Syrians? All the mafia bosses and oligarchs that he's subjugated inside of Russia? He literally has to stay in power simply to be able to sleep at night. And it's not just him: his family, his friends, his legacy is all at risk. To give up power is to give up all his leverage to ever control the safety of anyone or anything he has ever cared about. There's no safe retirement plan for a person who has lived the life he has.
  - petre 3y ago
    Subjugated? Russia is literally a modern day feudal state. The oligarchs are the regime's vassals. They get a slice of the country's resources which they export and share the profits with the regime/president. Or they get government contracts.
    - speakfreely 3y ago
      Yes, but there were a lot of vassals who were not on board with the new top-down direction in the early 2000s. Putin made a lot of enemies with vassals that didn't want to play ball with the new rules, Khodorkovsky being a notable example. There's surely plenty of others that weren't steamrolled as badly and still retain the ability to strike back at him if he's no longer the all-important boss of Russia.
      - petre 3y ago
        That's the post-Soviet oligarchs who thought Russia had become a free market economy didn't get that they have to bow to the new czar. Of course, there wasn't a flip the switch moment from state A to B. It all became increasingly authoritarian during Putin's several mandates. He put his allies in key positions, favorised loyal interest groups, locked up or otherwise liquidated potential adversaries. It's really a mafia state, just like the late sen. Jonh McCaine said, but since they have wide popular support, I think we can safely call it feudalism. I've read an article and they've identified somewhere after April 2008 when the Bucharest NATO Summit (Putin was also present) took place and before August 2008, when the Russian invasion of Georgia began as the moment Putin ultimately decided to invade a nearby state in order to prevent NATO expansion into post-Soviet states. That's his red line, that's why he also invaded Ukraine. He still views these countries as part of the USSR/Russian world, just like Belarus where he currently tries a Crimean-style Anschluss. The reality is quite a bit different. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War
hutzlibu 3y ago
"Prigozhin didn't get the support he expected from the military, so he was was motivated to settle, but had enough support to threaten Moscow, so Putin was motivated to settle. Outcomes - a hardliner in charge of the Russian military, Putin quietly retires in a year or two, hands over reigns without the violence" Mostly agree, except to the conclusion. I do not think Putin is ready to hand over the power and he rather rules till he dies (one way or the other). And of course it is far from over, because whoever wins, it ain't people who have much respect for human rights or lifes. But I cannot imagine both being alive in russia.
meepmorp 3y ago
> Prigozhin was threatened with a tactical nuke, decided it wasn't worth it. I have trouble believing there was a credible threat of nukes. Nuking your own territory is an unambiguous way to signal you've completely lost control of everything.
- runarberg 3y ago
  Wasn't that one of the extra headlines in Robocop? Something about South Africa—still under the apartheid regime at time of premier—were “forced” to nuke one of their own cities because of unrest.
  - jasfi 3y ago
    Seems so: https://robocop.fandom.com/wiki/Pretoria https://robocop.fandom.com/wiki/Pretoria Only in the movies though. No country would risk a tactical nuke in their own territory, that's self-defeating.
    - boomboomsubban 3y ago
      >No country would risk a tactical nuke in their own territory, that's self-defeating. No one had done that, but that's the general theory as to why South Africa developed nukes.
      - meepmorp 3y ago
        Possibly, but per a 1993 NY Times article on the program: > Mr. de Klerk told Parliament that the program, one of the nuclear era's most closely guarded secrets, was begun in 1974 because of the apartheid Government's sense of isolation and its fear of Communist designs in the region. Of course, that doesn't preclude internal use.
        jasfi 3y ago
        I still don't think they would have used it internally, but perhaps as a threat to neighboring countries. Really glad it was shutdown!
culebron21 3y ago
There's another versin of what happened. Here's a post in telegram theorizing and referring to anonymous sources in the governmnet, suggesting it's a big fight between president administration management and FSB against MoD Shoigu+Gerasimov and Rostech corporation over the assets and state contracts of the latter. (post: https://t.me/volyamedia/703 https://t.me/volyamedia/703) Apart from that it's entirely built on anonymous sources, this gives some plausible explanation, because if we consider just 2 sides (Prigozhin/Wagner vs Government), a genuine stand-down seems impossible. Leaving Prigozhin go away undermines the authority of Putin among those in top power. But with 3 or 4 sides (Wagner, MoD & Rostech, PA & FSB, Putin & closest people) this explains their moves much better. Although, if PA & FSB really did this, it's very reckless, putting the entire campaign at risk -- like quick frontline collapse. So I admit the case with inner fight possible, though prorably the fake stand-down is more probable.
- LaundroMat 3y ago
  Reading this felt like reading the beginning of a cyberpunk novel. (I do not mean to dismiss your post, only the strangeness of the situation).
  - 082349872349872 3y ago
    The narrator of Burning Chrome lost his arm in a war, hang gliding at night over Kiev (as it was then). A dolphin in Johnny Mnemonic was trained for navy service. The cyberpunks were a bit ahead of reality in these situations...
lisasays 3y ago
Prigozhin was threatened with a tactical nuke, decided it wasn't worth it. Woah there. This just doesn't parse.
barbariangrunge 3y ago
Prigozhin's going to get poisoned / assassinated within 3 months. Maybe within 2 weeks. He's crazy if he think's he'll survive to see 2024 without a successful rebellion. He's a dead man walking, and I don't understand what could possibly be in the deal that could convince him otherwise
- LinuxBender 3y ago
  Prigozhin's going to get poisoned / assassinated within 3 months. I think that depends on how we got here. One theory could be that another country or set of countries paid him to turn against Russia and promised he could live wherever he wants with a nice stash of cash should he accomplish some specific tasks. The reason I think this could be the case is that mercs are generally only faithful to money and anything that gives them more power. I'm sure he realized he did not have a future of money or power in Russia so it might not have taken that much to turn him.
  - akrymski 3y ago
    Exactly. This looks like classic extortion: if you don't pay me more, I will stop fighting, or do a 180.
  - ithkuil 3y ago
    But he's not a merc. He's a billionaire who funded a merc company because he likes that shit. He has money. He doesn't have the power he probably wanted to have. But going into exile is not going to do his power craving any good. If he aimed at toppling the minister of defence or even the president, how on earth would he be satisfied with getting some money or some contract by Belarus or some other country?
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
crtified 3y ago
Prigozhin could be threatened with a tactical nuke, in theory. But the far cheaper and easier version is that he was threatened with the fates of his Russian wife and children.

anigbrowl 3y ago

Yeah, I rather doubt he is using a public Telegram channel to coordinate his troops.

AnimalMuppet 3y ago

I like your first thought. That seems realistically possible. I'm not sure your second is realistic. I don't think there's any scenario where at least one of Putin and Prigozhin don't die. If Prigozhin "settles", he will be shortly assassinated. (Watch out for windows!) Putin might be able to quietly retire, but I think the odds are against that one, too.

speakfreely 3y ago
I would think death would be preferable to retirement for Putin. To give up his current position would simply be making him a really tempting bargaining chip for the next generation at the top, to live in unimaginable anxiety that you will be offered up to any of the thousands of enemies you've created over the past 20 years of strongman rule. What could he possibly trade to the next ruler to maintain leverage over them and indefinitely guarantee his safety? From the West, the ICC, the Islamists, the Chechens, the Ukrainians, the Syrians? All the mafia bosses and oligarchs that he's subjugated inside of Russia? He literally has to stay in power simply to be able to sleep at night. And it's not just him: his family, his friends, his legacy is all at risk. To give up power is to give up all his leverage to ever control the safety of anyone or anything he has ever cared about. There's no safe retirement plan for a person who has lived the life he has.
- petre 3y ago
  Subjugated? Russia is literally a modern day feudal state. The oligarchs are the regime's vassals. They get a slice of the country's resources which they export and share the profits with the regime/president. Or they get government contracts.
  - speakfreely 3y ago
    Yes, but there were a lot of vassals who were not on board with the new top-down direction in the early 2000s. Putin made a lot of enemies with vassals that didn't want to play ball with the new rules, Khodorkovsky being a notable example. There's surely plenty of others that weren't steamrolled as badly and still retain the ability to strike back at him if he's no longer the all-important boss of Russia.
    - petre 3y ago
      That's the post-Soviet oligarchs who thought Russia had become a free market economy didn't get that they have to bow to the new czar. Of course, there wasn't a flip the switch moment from state A to B. It all became increasingly authoritarian during Putin's several mandates. He put his allies in key positions, favorised loyal interest groups, locked up or otherwise liquidated potential adversaries. It's really a mafia state, just like the late sen. Jonh McCaine said, but since they have wide popular support, I think we can safely call it feudalism. I've read an article and they've identified somewhere after April 2008 when the Bucharest NATO Summit (Putin was also present) took place and before August 2008, when the Russian invasion of Georgia began as the moment Putin ultimately decided to invade a nearby state in order to prevent NATO expansion into post-Soviet states. That's his red line, that's why he also invaded Ukraine. He still views these countries as part of the USSR/Russian world, just like Belarus where he currently tries a Crimean-style Anschluss. The reality is quite a bit different. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War

hutzlibu 3y ago

"Prigozhin didn't get the support he expected from the military, so he was was motivated to settle, but had enough support to threaten Moscow, so Putin was motivated to settle. Outcomes - a hardliner in charge of the Russian military, Putin quietly retires in a year or two, hands over reigns without the violence" Mostly agree, except to the conclusion. I do not think Putin is ready to hand over the power and he rather rules till he dies (one way or the other). And of course it is far from over, because whoever wins, it ain't people who have much respect for human rights or lifes. But I cannot imagine both being alive in russia.

meepmorp 3y ago

> Prigozhin was threatened with a tactical nuke, decided it wasn't worth it. I have trouble believing there was a credible threat of nukes. Nuking your own territory is an unambiguous way to signal you've completely lost control of everything.

runarberg 3y ago
Wasn't that one of the extra headlines in Robocop? Something about South Africa—still under the apartheid regime at time of premier—were “forced” to nuke one of their own cities because of unrest.
- jasfi 3y ago
  Seems so: https://robocop.fandom.com/wiki/Pretoria https://robocop.fandom.com/wiki/Pretoria Only in the movies though. No country would risk a tactical nuke in their own territory, that's self-defeating.
  - boomboomsubban 3y ago
    >No country would risk a tactical nuke in their own territory, that's self-defeating. No one had done that, but that's the general theory as to why South Africa developed nukes.
    - meepmorp 3y ago
      Possibly, but per a 1993 NY Times article on the program: > Mr. de Klerk told Parliament that the program, one of the nuclear era's most closely guarded secrets, was begun in 1974 because of the apartheid Government's sense of isolation and its fear of Communist designs in the region. Of course, that doesn't preclude internal use.
      - jasfi 3y ago
        I still don't think they would have used it internally, but perhaps as a threat to neighboring countries. Really glad it was shutdown!

culebron21 3y ago

There's another versin of what happened. Here's a post in telegram theorizing and referring to anonymous sources in the governmnet, suggesting it's a big fight between president administration management and FSB against MoD Shoigu+Gerasimov and Rostech corporation over the assets and state contracts of the latter. (post: https://t.me/volyamedia/703 https://t.me/volyamedia/703) Apart from that it's entirely built on anonymous sources, this gives some plausible explanation, because if we consider just 2 sides (Prigozhin/Wagner vs Government), a genuine stand-down seems impossible. Leaving Prigozhin go away undermines the authority of Putin among those in top power. But with 3 or 4 sides (Wagner, MoD & Rostech, PA & FSB, Putin & closest people) this explains their moves much better. Although, if PA & FSB really did this, it's very reckless, putting the entire campaign at risk -- like quick frontline collapse. So I admit the case with inner fight possible, though prorably the fake stand-down is more probable.

LaundroMat 3y ago
Reading this felt like reading the beginning of a cyberpunk novel. (I do not mean to dismiss your post, only the strangeness of the situation).
- 082349872349872 3y ago
  The narrator of Burning Chrome lost his arm in a war, hang gliding at night over Kiev (as it was then). A dolphin in Johnny Mnemonic was trained for navy service. The cyberpunks were a bit ahead of reality in these situations...

lisasays 3y ago

Prigozhin was threatened with a tactical nuke, decided it wasn't worth it. Woah there. This just doesn't parse.

barbariangrunge 3y ago

Prigozhin's going to get poisoned / assassinated within 3 months. Maybe within 2 weeks. He's crazy if he think's he'll survive to see 2024 without a successful rebellion. He's a dead man walking, and I don't understand what could possibly be in the deal that could convince him otherwise

LinuxBender 3y ago
Prigozhin's going to get poisoned / assassinated within 3 months. I think that depends on how we got here. One theory could be that another country or set of countries paid him to turn against Russia and promised he could live wherever he wants with a nice stash of cash should he accomplish some specific tasks. The reason I think this could be the case is that mercs are generally only faithful to money and anything that gives them more power. I'm sure he realized he did not have a future of money or power in Russia so it might not have taken that much to turn him.
- akrymski 3y ago
  Exactly. This looks like classic extortion: if you don't pay me more, I will stop fighting, or do a 180.
- ithkuil 3y ago
  But he's not a merc. He's a billionaire who funded a merc company because he likes that shit. He has money. He doesn't have the power he probably wanted to have. But going into exile is not going to do his power craving any good. If he aimed at toppling the minister of defence or even the president, how on earth would he be satisfied with getting some money or some contract by Belarus or some other country?
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]

crtified 3y ago

Prigozhin could be threatened with a tactical nuke, in theory. But the far cheaper and easier version is that he was threatened with the fates of his Russian wife and children.