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The most likely answer for what is going on here is the one right on the surface. Prigozhin realized that he could try to take Moscow, but he'd ultimately be d

The most likely answer for what is going on here is the one right on the surface. Prigozhin realized that he could try to take Moscow, but he'd ultimately be defeated, Putin was already gone. He acted without any political support and without having a bunch of aces up your sleeve an attempted coup is destined to fail. It would also drag units away from Ukraine to deal with him and undermine Russian efforts in the face of the Ukrainian offensive. Prigozhin is still fighting against Ukraine and probably recognized that he would go down in Russian history as a traitor. It was very likely just a rash miscalculation by Prigozhin. He's hoping to use this as political leverage now, but my guess would be that he winds up dead pretty soon. I doubt there's any 4 dimensional chess going on. If this is the case, then this isn't going to be the Russian Civil War/Coup that people had hoped to end the war. Russia is certainly a mess though, and this might cause other political forces in Russia to act.

toomuchtodo 3y ago
But this provides interesting signal: under certain circumstances, Putin is willing to flee via private aircraft for safety. Whether intentional or not, stimulus and response has been observed.
- paxys 3y ago
  Another signal - a sparsely equipped army of a few thousand can march in from Ukraine and take Moscow in a matter of hours, facing minimal resistance. Regardless of the outcome I’m sure NATO has been taking detailed notes.
  - TeMPOraL 3y ago
    This I don't think is very surprising. Unless the defense expects it and has time to prepare, the speeds achievable by military vehicles, especially combined with well-developed road infrastructure of modern urbanized countries, means that the attacker can easily cover large distances fast. In other words: APCs on a highway are not that different from intercity buses, and highways are designed to let you cross the country quickly.
    - tguvot 3y ago
      russian army did try to slow him down from the air. but they managed to take down 6 helicopters and one airplane (flying command center). all the army/etc on his way was simply surrendering
      - TeMPOraL 3y ago
        Right. It would've been a different story if the Russian army treated them as enemy - their air forces could've stopped the convoy dead at any point of their choosing. Highways let you move fast only as long as they're intact and no one is shooting at you; otherwise, they make you an easy target. Russian army experienced that first-hand in the first two months of their invasion of Ukraine.
        tguvot 3y ago
        >Right. It would've been a different story if the Russian army treated them as enemy - their air forces could've stopped the convoy dead at any point of their choosing. my point was that they tried and they failed. wagner has a bunch of manpads and few pantsir sam systems. they tried to bomb them on highway from planes but missed and kill civilians in track. they also tried to shoot at them missles at voronezh but blew up some petrol refinary. they also tried to bomb some bridge to block road to moscow - but also missed
        TeMPOraL 3y ago
        Is this confirmed? I stayed away from the news firehose this time, and only followed BBC live reporting, and IIRC there was no confirmation there of any bombing attempt, successful or otherwise.
        tguvot 3y ago
        there are videos of helis shooting refinery and planes bombing bridge (followed by video of somebody driving near the bridge and holes in highway or near it). about track on highway - there are videos of it burning with commentary that plane try to bomb wagner convoy but missed
  - maxander 3y ago
    It’s not news to anyone that NATO could win a (conventional) war with Russia. The important result is that any sizable chunk of military force in Russia itself stands a good chance of it.
    - psychphysic 3y ago
      I wonder if the chance of tactical nuclear weapons being used would go up in a Russian civil war. Especially if there's been reports it's seriously been considered in Ukraine.
      - usrusr 3y ago
        Why risk nuclear armageddon when you can conveniently switch sides at the slightest occasion. It's not like armies marching to shuffle a few chairs in big offices were a matter of deep ideological conflict or worse.
        tekknik 3y ago
        Tactical nuclear weapons are very low yield bombs. You won’t start nuclear armageddon with those.
        usrusr 3y ago
        That's why I wrote risk, not cause. It's chain reactions all the way up the meta levels.
    - vGPU 3y ago
      You do realize that NATO is currently essentially out of ammunition, right?
      - AndrewPGameDev 3y ago
        I think you should do some research on the topic before you conclude that "NATO is out of ammunition". I highly recommend Perun https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=deK98IeTjfY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=deK98IeTjfY .
  - AnimalMuppet 3y ago
    If they're already past Russia's defensive front.
  - baybal2 3y ago
    [dead]
  - NicoJuicy 3y ago
    You're forgetting that most people in Russia support Wagner, which could be the reason they could advance so easily.
  - coldtea 3y ago
    They faced minimal resistance because those in power wanted to give them minimal resistance (not to stir up bad blood before the matter is resolved otherwise). If they were an actual emeny unit (not an ex-ally in negotiations, which was the case) they'd be obliterated by air and land in minutes. And of course marching towards Moscow only staying hundrends of kilometers away from it (while being let to march), and "taking Moscow in a matter of hours" is a totally different thing.
    - tguvot 3y ago
      >. If they were an actual emeny unit (not an ex-ally in negotiations, which was the case) they'd be obliterated by air and land in minutes. i think you overestimate russian military might. russian military is second strongest military in russia those days
      - coldtea 3y ago
        I think you overestimate a Twitter oneliner
        tguvot 3y ago
        lets see: in less than 2 days they took over 2 regional centers, southern military headquarters (in process captured deputy minister of defense and deputy chief of military intelligence) and 2 military airbases. marched unopposed for few hundred miles towards moscow and stopped only because they decided to do (also took down a bunch of military aircrafts.). at same time russian government managed only to put a bunch of tracks with sand on highways to block it, demolish parts of highway and bomb their own bridge. prior to this, last month, some RDK and Russian Legion performed ~10km deep incursions into russia, pretty much unopposed and stayed there for a days. so no, it's not only onliners. it's just state of russian state. where everything is fake and for show
    - rasz 3y ago
      Yes, minutes, just like russia could take Kyiv last year, they just chose to turn around as a gesture of goodwill. Definitely no weakness and incompetence there. Reality is ground forces let wagner pass out of fear/solidarity. Only aviation tried, and failed hard to stop the convoy.
- lockhouse 3y ago
  To be clear, that is the established protocol for the commander and chief of most militaries. That’s why such a big deal was made when Zelensky didn’t leave Kyiv despite advancing Russian forces. If there was a credible threat to President Biden he would be on Air Force One immediately.
  - bananabiscuit 3y ago
    [flagged]
    - piva00 3y ago
      Woah, you're really gatekeeping how a president should look like in the middle of war? Or worse, complaining that his image is unpresidential? What the actual fuck?
      - bananabiscuit 3y ago
        I sure am. Because it’s obvious propaganda.
        Shaanie 3y ago
        Is there anyone who thinks that the way a president dresses and acts isn't propaganda?.. It's not exactly some huge revelation.
        bananabiscuit 3y ago
        Exactly. Makes it all the more ridiculous when people take Zelenskyy’s look at face value.
        signatoremo 3y ago
        Such a strange take. Of course any public appearance of any government head is propaganda. If propaganda ever has a value, it’s the assured image of a commander in chief in the war time, when the troop have to face a stronger enemy who outnumber them. They need to know their leader is there with them. It’s a matter of survival for Ukraine. Do you think a well shaved Zelenskyy in impeccable suits, sitting behind long table — like Putin — is more suitable? What do you think all of Prigozhin’s videos are?
- coldtea 3y ago
  Why, did people expect him to be an idiot or go Avengers style and fight himself, perhaps with bare hands? Of course he'll go somewhere safe and work from there. That's what leaders all over the world too in such crisis moments, if an attack is suspected.
  - jpmoral 3y ago
    Wagner claimed a strength of 25k, actual number advancing on Moscow was probably lower. Not a good look for someone who has cultivated a strongman image for decades to be fleeing from that.
- 93po 3y ago
  Why do we believe Putin fled? What's the source of that information, and what reason does that source have to lie?
  - Symbiote 3y ago
    A flight track of the presidential plane departing the usual airport in Moscow, and switching off its transponder 100km later.
    - 93po 3y ago
      How often does the US president’s plane fly without him?
      - therealcamino 3y ago
        Whatever the answer is, it wouldn't provide any evidence for or against what's being discussed. Processes used by the US military don't tell you anything about practices of the Russian presidential plane.
        93po 3y ago
        At best we have no information about the Russian presidential plane, which is exactly my point. We make all these assumptions about what's happening without any real basis for those assumptions. This is why I say most of the news around Russia/Ukraine is propaganda. It's all told with the narrative that the west wants. Note: I support Ukraine, Russia is absolutely in the wrong
- jjtheblunt 3y ago
  Flee where?
yieldcrv 3y ago
I read the defense minister resigned in a deal negotiated by Lukashenko, and charges dropped against Prigozhin That’s an absolute win, for Prigozhin, since that was the original goal this internal issue has nothing to do with anyone outside of that region thats a pretty big shakeup. “I dont like this guy and there is no political process to remove him so I brought in my private army, the President fleed and he resigned in 10 hours”
- idopmstuff 3y ago
  Prigozhin was exiled to Belarus: https://www.businessinsider.com/wagner-leader-prigozhin-exiled-to-belarus-after-putin-rebellion-2023-6 https://www.businessinsider.com/wagner-leader-prigozhin-exil... Seems like a terrible outcome for Putin. He looks really weak and presumably just lost most if not all of Wagner, who were his most effective troops. He might have Prigozhin poisoned, but that would probably cause further instability internally as it causes more of his leadership to realize he'll clearly betray anybody and his word isn't worth anything.
  - TeMPOraL 3y ago
    > and presumably just lost most if not all of Wagner That remains to be seen? Might be that some of their warriors will take the offer to join the military, and others... might select (or be given) new leadership, and go back to Ukraine to resume their regular business there. If this really was Prigozhin vs. MoD, then that particular issue might be a closed case. Mercenaries are what they are - they're loyal to themselves and money, not state policy. Prigozhin got them to march at Moscow, so they did; then got them to march back, safe and sound, so they did. Russian government can just say "okay, no shots fired, no hard feelings" and leave it at that; it's not like they trusted them in the first place. Putin angle though, that's a new thing. One way of spinning today's events is that Prigozhin took a swing at the Tsar, missed, and still lived to talk about it. Leaving it at that is not safe for the Tsar.
    - chasd00 3y ago
      > lived to talk about it As of right this second. I hope his affairs are in order because the writing is on the wall.
koonsolo 3y ago
The things you describe were already known before, so I assume there needs to be something else. Maybe he thought more parts of the army would back him?
- chasd00 3y ago
  Yeah he got no support, everyone sided with Putin. I think he knows the end is near. He’ll hide in Belarus for as long as he can but I bet he knows he crossed the line.
  - labster 3y ago
    It depends on if Lukashenko can use Wagner rather than the Russian army to shore up his own regime. I would not be surprised to hear Prigozhin had accidentally fallen out a window of a tall building, and only slightly surprised to hear he is Belarus’ next defense minister.
nemo44x 3y ago
Yeah it seems like he smartly sold at the top here. He wasn’t going to have any more advantageous of a position and he cashed it in at the perfect time.
zepearl 3y ago
> Prigozhin realized that he could try to take Moscow, but he'd ultimately be defeated, Putin was already gone. Cannot be - on this level it's basic/simple strategy, if he's as good as he says he is then he would have forseen such situation => I don't believe in a "sudden realization/enlightenment" by Prigozhin.
- jncfhnb 3y ago
  [dead]
- ineedasername 3y ago
  Yes, I don't think Prigozhin had any sudden realization that there was a gap in his plan. My guess is that he was in some way out maneuvered. I don't mean that purely in a military sense of maneuvering troops/resources etc. From the long history of brutal internal struggles and backstabbing, my shot in the dark guess is that he was counting on support from key individuals in power and it either never materialized or was withdrawn. I think it's also possible that it was never a legitimate attempt on his part. He may never have expected it to succeed, but it would cause enough problems that it forced Russian leadership to back away and be willing to cut a deal that lets Prigozhin keep his life (for now) in exile. He'd been incrementally pushing things for months for a variety of reasons (real anger over lack of material support? Pure power play? Who knows). But unlike critical journalists, oligarchs and political enemies that have been assassinated over the years, Prigozhin had an army to use as leverage. Though I still won't be surprised if he's the next person to fall out a window or die from a novel poisoning method.
rossdavidh 3y ago
I'm not sure. Surovikin was generally regarded as a friend of Prigozhin, and so I was surprised when he publicly appealed for Wagner to stop. Now I'm wondering if it was part of the plan all along? Prigozhin exposes Putin as a paper tiger, now sits back (surrounded by tens of thousands of troops to protect him) and waits for Ukraine to win, without him being blamed for it. Then he steps into the Kremlin. Maybe?
usrusr 3y ago
A demonstration of strength by that oddball player who was never really respected by his peers because he didn't go to the right school but who somehow got along very well with the big boss.Except on those days they fall out. His co-underlings were envious of that, likely plotted a little, therefore the outsider had to posture to reassert his position. Posture he did, now the big boss says I forgive you if you come back at my side. To the "from the right school" underlings this is a clear message that they have to accept the outsider. Prigoshin won, not what he claimed to strive for (though he would have taken that in a pinch I guess) but what he actually wanted.
- speakfreely 3y ago
  It's an incredibly weird situation. Putin can't kill Prigozhin without compromising his ability to ever make future deals with his underlings, but he also cannot allow him to live and maintain his image of being in control of Russia.
randomname93857 3y ago
Well, there is one more likely answer. he was complaining about who will control businesses in the territories that were occupied by his gangs. Might that be that he got what he wanted and viola?
AbrahamParangi 3y ago
The logic is good but implies you MUST go for it. I can’t imagine he’s so stupid as to not see that. Crossing the rubicon means you can’t go back. I am reminded of the story: Chen Sheng was an officer serving the Qin Dynasty, famous for their draconian punishments. He was supposed to lead his army to a rendezvous point, but he got delayed by heavy rains and it became clear he was going to arrive late. Chen turns to his friend Wu Guang and asks “What’s the penalty for being late?” “Death,” says Wu. “And what’s the penalty for rebellion?” “Death,” says Wu. “Well then…” says Chen Sheng. And thus began the famous Dazexiang Uprising, which caused thousands of deaths and helped usher in a period of instability and chaos that resulted in the fall of the Qin Dynasty three years later.
- mhb 3y ago
  And that's why we don't have the death penalty for shoplifting.
  - AbrahamParangi 3y ago
    Probably the strongest argument against the death penalty in general.
    - mhb 3y ago
      Not really. It's the same argument for making any punishment proportional to the crime.
      - JumpCrisscross 3y ago
        > Not really Really. It's a threshold problem. If the penalty for shoplifting is death, and the penalty for a massacre is death, a good number of sociopathic shoplifters will gamble for freedom via massacre. (It's rational.) It's why dictatorships consistently flame out. If there is no peaceful transition of power, losing power means death. That incentivises a dictator on the edge to take risks that otherwise make no sense because even a minute chance of success is worth it. In the context of a Russian revolution, this animates concerns around our species' first nuclear civil war.
le-mark 3y ago
> The most likely answer for what is going on here is the one right on the surface. Prigozhin realized that he could try to take Moscow, but he'd ultimately be defeated I think this coupled with the military didn’t seem to come over to his side in large enough numbers quickly enough indicated it was going to be a real fight, and not a one or two day affair. Otherwise, yes, Progozhin is a dead man walking.
senectus1 3y ago
I'm pretty sure he was very angry about the friendly fire on his camps by MoD forces..
- fractaled 3y ago
  IMO the friendly fire on his camp was a cover/false flag to begin the "march for justice". The coordination/speed his coup attempt had couldn't be set up in such a short amount of time (since the "friendly fire" incident), so it was planned for at least a few weeks.
  - senectus1 3y ago
    Fair call. it was a VERY fast mobilisation and trip up the road.
rewmie 3y ago
> It would also drag units away from Ukraine to deal with him and undermine Russian efforts in the face of the Ukrainian offensive. Prigozhin has been repeatedly casting doubt on the decision of attacking Ukraine for the past couple of weeks. He went as far as rejecting Russian propaganda on how Ukraine provoked it and stating that Ukraine only reacted to Russian's military presence. He even proceeded to pin the blame of this Russian quagmire on Putin and the Russian MoD. Before starting the military coup, Prigozhin laid the groundwork to pin Russia's invasion of Ukraine as betraying Russia by weakening it. Keeping Russia's armed forces in Ukraine was also critical for the success of his military coup. I don't think your scenario is plausible. There's something else in play.
literalis 3y ago
It was a huge miscalculation. Even Russians that hate Putin are not going to be comfortable with support for a coup from a private military. Peter Zeihan stated the obvious in a video on this that Wagner would have been decimated from the air on their way to Moscow too. I don't think you need to attend an Army war college to figure that out. Ultimately, someone crazy enough to build a giant private army is going to do crazy things. None of this seems good to me unless one is cheering for the doomsday clock to strike midnight.
foogazi 3y ago
> He acted without any political support and without having a bunch of aces up your sleeve Maybe trying to force flip some Aces - and when they didn’t come up he retreated > It was very likely just a rash miscalculation by Prigozhin Situation became untenable with MoD trying to enlist Private troops - reaction must have been anticipated How are things in regular army that they have to ingest Wagner contractors ?

toomuchtodo 3y ago

But this provides interesting signal: under certain circumstances, Putin is willing to flee via private aircraft for safety. Whether intentional or not, stimulus and response has been observed.

paxys 3y ago
Another signal - a sparsely equipped army of a few thousand can march in from Ukraine and take Moscow in a matter of hours, facing minimal resistance. Regardless of the outcome I’m sure NATO has been taking detailed notes.
- TeMPOraL 3y ago
  This I don't think is very surprising. Unless the defense expects it and has time to prepare, the speeds achievable by military vehicles, especially combined with well-developed road infrastructure of modern urbanized countries, means that the attacker can easily cover large distances fast. In other words: APCs on a highway are not that different from intercity buses, and highways are designed to let you cross the country quickly.
  - tguvot 3y ago
    russian army did try to slow him down from the air. but they managed to take down 6 helicopters and one airplane (flying command center). all the army/etc on his way was simply surrendering
    - TeMPOraL 3y ago
      Right. It would've been a different story if the Russian army treated them as enemy - their air forces could've stopped the convoy dead at any point of their choosing. Highways let you move fast only as long as they're intact and no one is shooting at you; otherwise, they make you an easy target. Russian army experienced that first-hand in the first two months of their invasion of Ukraine.
      - tguvot 3y ago
        >Right. It would've been a different story if the Russian army treated them as enemy - their air forces could've stopped the convoy dead at any point of their choosing. my point was that they tried and they failed. wagner has a bunch of manpads and few pantsir sam systems. they tried to bomb them on highway from planes but missed and kill civilians in track. they also tried to shoot at them missles at voronezh but blew up some petrol refinary. they also tried to bomb some bridge to block road to moscow - but also missed
        TeMPOraL 3y ago
        Is this confirmed? I stayed away from the news firehose this time, and only followed BBC live reporting, and IIRC there was no confirmation there of any bombing attempt, successful or otherwise.
        tguvot 3y ago
        there are videos of helis shooting refinery and planes bombing bridge (followed by video of somebody driving near the bridge and holes in highway or near it). about track on highway - there are videos of it burning with commentary that plane try to bomb wagner convoy but missed
- maxander 3y ago
  It’s not news to anyone that NATO could win a (conventional) war with Russia. The important result is that any sizable chunk of military force in Russia itself stands a good chance of it.
  - psychphysic 3y ago
    I wonder if the chance of tactical nuclear weapons being used would go up in a Russian civil war. Especially if there's been reports it's seriously been considered in Ukraine.
    - usrusr 3y ago
      Why risk nuclear armageddon when you can conveniently switch sides at the slightest occasion. It's not like armies marching to shuffle a few chairs in big offices were a matter of deep ideological conflict or worse.
      - tekknik 3y ago
        Tactical nuclear weapons are very low yield bombs. You won’t start nuclear armageddon with those.
        usrusr 3y ago
        That's why I wrote risk, not cause. It's chain reactions all the way up the meta levels.
  - vGPU 3y ago
    You do realize that NATO is currently essentially out of ammunition, right?
    - AndrewPGameDev 3y ago
      I think you should do some research on the topic before you conclude that "NATO is out of ammunition". I highly recommend Perun https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=deK98IeTjfY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=deK98IeTjfY .
- AnimalMuppet 3y ago
  If they're already past Russia's defensive front.
- baybal2 3y ago
  [dead]
- NicoJuicy 3y ago
  You're forgetting that most people in Russia support Wagner, which could be the reason they could advance so easily.
- coldtea 3y ago
  They faced minimal resistance because those in power wanted to give them minimal resistance (not to stir up bad blood before the matter is resolved otherwise). If they were an actual emeny unit (not an ex-ally in negotiations, which was the case) they'd be obliterated by air and land in minutes. And of course marching towards Moscow only staying hundrends of kilometers away from it (while being let to march), and "taking Moscow in a matter of hours" is a totally different thing.
  - tguvot 3y ago
    >. If they were an actual emeny unit (not an ex-ally in negotiations, which was the case) they'd be obliterated by air and land in minutes. i think you overestimate russian military might. russian military is second strongest military in russia those days
    - coldtea 3y ago
      I think you overestimate a Twitter oneliner
      - tguvot 3y ago
        lets see: in less than 2 days they took over 2 regional centers, southern military headquarters (in process captured deputy minister of defense and deputy chief of military intelligence) and 2 military airbases. marched unopposed for few hundred miles towards moscow and stopped only because they decided to do (also took down a bunch of military aircrafts.). at same time russian government managed only to put a bunch of tracks with sand on highways to block it, demolish parts of highway and bomb their own bridge. prior to this, last month, some RDK and Russian Legion performed ~10km deep incursions into russia, pretty much unopposed and stayed there for a days. so no, it's not only onliners. it's just state of russian state. where everything is fake and for show
  - rasz 3y ago
    Yes, minutes, just like russia could take Kyiv last year, they just chose to turn around as a gesture of goodwill. Definitely no weakness and incompetence there. Reality is ground forces let wagner pass out of fear/solidarity. Only aviation tried, and failed hard to stop the convoy.
lockhouse 3y ago
To be clear, that is the established protocol for the commander and chief of most militaries. That’s why such a big deal was made when Zelensky didn’t leave Kyiv despite advancing Russian forces. If there was a credible threat to President Biden he would be on Air Force One immediately.
- bananabiscuit 3y ago
  [flagged]
  - piva00 3y ago
    Woah, you're really gatekeeping how a president should look like in the middle of war? Or worse, complaining that his image is unpresidential? What the actual fuck?
    - bananabiscuit 3y ago
      I sure am. Because it’s obvious propaganda.
      - Shaanie 3y ago
        Is there anyone who thinks that the way a president dresses and acts isn't propaganda?.. It's not exactly some huge revelation.
        bananabiscuit 3y ago
        Exactly. Makes it all the more ridiculous when people take Zelenskyy’s look at face value.
        signatoremo 3y ago
        Such a strange take. Of course any public appearance of any government head is propaganda. If propaganda ever has a value, it’s the assured image of a commander in chief in the war time, when the troop have to face a stronger enemy who outnumber them. They need to know their leader is there with them. It’s a matter of survival for Ukraine. Do you think a well shaved Zelenskyy in impeccable suits, sitting behind long table — like Putin — is more suitable? What do you think all of Prigozhin’s videos are?
coldtea 3y ago
Why, did people expect him to be an idiot or go Avengers style and fight himself, perhaps with bare hands? Of course he'll go somewhere safe and work from there. That's what leaders all over the world too in such crisis moments, if an attack is suspected.
- jpmoral 3y ago
  Wagner claimed a strength of 25k, actual number advancing on Moscow was probably lower. Not a good look for someone who has cultivated a strongman image for decades to be fleeing from that.
93po 3y ago
Why do we believe Putin fled? What's the source of that information, and what reason does that source have to lie?
- Symbiote 3y ago
  A flight track of the presidential plane departing the usual airport in Moscow, and switching off its transponder 100km later.
  - 93po 3y ago
    How often does the US president’s plane fly without him?
    - therealcamino 3y ago
      Whatever the answer is, it wouldn't provide any evidence for or against what's being discussed. Processes used by the US military don't tell you anything about practices of the Russian presidential plane.
      - 93po 3y ago
        At best we have no information about the Russian presidential plane, which is exactly my point. We make all these assumptions about what's happening without any real basis for those assumptions. This is why I say most of the news around Russia/Ukraine is propaganda. It's all told with the narrative that the west wants. Note: I support Ukraine, Russia is absolutely in the wrong
jjtheblunt 3y ago
Flee where?

yieldcrv 3y ago

I read the defense minister resigned in a deal negotiated by Lukashenko, and charges dropped against Prigozhin That’s an absolute win, for Prigozhin, since that was the original goal this internal issue has nothing to do with anyone outside of that region thats a pretty big shakeup. “I dont like this guy and there is no political process to remove him so I brought in my private army, the President fleed and he resigned in 10 hours”

idopmstuff 3y ago
Prigozhin was exiled to Belarus: https://www.businessinsider.com/wagner-leader-prigozhin-exiled-to-belarus-after-putin-rebellion-2023-6 https://www.businessinsider.com/wagner-leader-prigozhin-exil... Seems like a terrible outcome for Putin. He looks really weak and presumably just lost most if not all of Wagner, who were his most effective troops. He might have Prigozhin poisoned, but that would probably cause further instability internally as it causes more of his leadership to realize he'll clearly betray anybody and his word isn't worth anything.
- TeMPOraL 3y ago
  > and presumably just lost most if not all of Wagner That remains to be seen? Might be that some of their warriors will take the offer to join the military, and others... might select (or be given) new leadership, and go back to Ukraine to resume their regular business there. If this really was Prigozhin vs. MoD, then that particular issue might be a closed case. Mercenaries are what they are - they're loyal to themselves and money, not state policy. Prigozhin got them to march at Moscow, so they did; then got them to march back, safe and sound, so they did. Russian government can just say "okay, no shots fired, no hard feelings" and leave it at that; it's not like they trusted them in the first place. Putin angle though, that's a new thing. One way of spinning today's events is that Prigozhin took a swing at the Tsar, missed, and still lived to talk about it. Leaving it at that is not safe for the Tsar.
  - chasd00 3y ago
    > lived to talk about it As of right this second. I hope his affairs are in order because the writing is on the wall.

koonsolo 3y ago

The things you describe were already known before, so I assume there needs to be something else. Maybe he thought more parts of the army would back him?

chasd00 3y ago
Yeah he got no support, everyone sided with Putin. I think he knows the end is near. He’ll hide in Belarus for as long as he can but I bet he knows he crossed the line.
- labster 3y ago
  It depends on if Lukashenko can use Wagner rather than the Russian army to shore up his own regime. I would not be surprised to hear Prigozhin had accidentally fallen out a window of a tall building, and only slightly surprised to hear he is Belarus’ next defense minister.

nemo44x 3y ago

Yeah it seems like he smartly sold at the top here. He wasn’t going to have any more advantageous of a position and he cashed it in at the perfect time.

zepearl 3y ago

> Prigozhin realized that he could try to take Moscow, but he'd ultimately be defeated, Putin was already gone. Cannot be - on this level it's basic/simple strategy, if he's as good as he says he is then he would have forseen such situation => I don't believe in a "sudden realization/enlightenment" by Prigozhin.

jncfhnb 3y ago
[dead]
ineedasername 3y ago
Yes, I don't think Prigozhin had any sudden realization that there was a gap in his plan. My guess is that he was in some way out maneuvered. I don't mean that purely in a military sense of maneuvering troops/resources etc. From the long history of brutal internal struggles and backstabbing, my shot in the dark guess is that he was counting on support from key individuals in power and it either never materialized or was withdrawn. I think it's also possible that it was never a legitimate attempt on his part. He may never have expected it to succeed, but it would cause enough problems that it forced Russian leadership to back away and be willing to cut a deal that lets Prigozhin keep his life (for now) in exile. He'd been incrementally pushing things for months for a variety of reasons (real anger over lack of material support? Pure power play? Who knows). But unlike critical journalists, oligarchs and political enemies that have been assassinated over the years, Prigozhin had an army to use as leverage. Though I still won't be surprised if he's the next person to fall out a window or die from a novel poisoning method.

rossdavidh 3y ago

I'm not sure. Surovikin was generally regarded as a friend of Prigozhin, and so I was surprised when he publicly appealed for Wagner to stop. Now I'm wondering if it was part of the plan all along? Prigozhin exposes Putin as a paper tiger, now sits back (surrounded by tens of thousands of troops to protect him) and waits for Ukraine to win, without him being blamed for it. Then he steps into the Kremlin. Maybe?

usrusr 3y ago

A demonstration of strength by that oddball player who was never really respected by his peers because he didn't go to the right school but who somehow got along very well with the big boss.Except on those days they fall out. His co-underlings were envious of that, likely plotted a little, therefore the outsider had to posture to reassert his position. Posture he did, now the big boss says I forgive you if you come back at my side. To the "from the right school" underlings this is a clear message that they have to accept the outsider. Prigoshin won, not what he claimed to strive for (though he would have taken that in a pinch I guess) but what he actually wanted.

speakfreely 3y ago
It's an incredibly weird situation. Putin can't kill Prigozhin without compromising his ability to ever make future deals with his underlings, but he also cannot allow him to live and maintain his image of being in control of Russia.

randomname93857 3y ago

Well, there is one more likely answer. he was complaining about who will control businesses in the territories that were occupied by his gangs. Might that be that he got what he wanted and viola?

AbrahamParangi 3y ago

The logic is good but implies you MUST go for it. I can’t imagine he’s so stupid as to not see that. Crossing the rubicon means you can’t go back. I am reminded of the story: Chen Sheng was an officer serving the Qin Dynasty, famous for their draconian punishments. He was supposed to lead his army to a rendezvous point, but he got delayed by heavy rains and it became clear he was going to arrive late. Chen turns to his friend Wu Guang and asks “What’s the penalty for being late?” “Death,” says Wu. “And what’s the penalty for rebellion?” “Death,” says Wu. “Well then…” says Chen Sheng. And thus began the famous Dazexiang Uprising, which caused thousands of deaths and helped usher in a period of instability and chaos that resulted in the fall of the Qin Dynasty three years later.

mhb 3y ago
And that's why we don't have the death penalty for shoplifting.
- AbrahamParangi 3y ago
  Probably the strongest argument against the death penalty in general.
  - mhb 3y ago
    Not really. It's the same argument for making any punishment proportional to the crime.
    - JumpCrisscross 3y ago
      > Not really Really. It's a threshold problem. If the penalty for shoplifting is death, and the penalty for a massacre is death, a good number of sociopathic shoplifters will gamble for freedom via massacre. (It's rational.) It's why dictatorships consistently flame out. If there is no peaceful transition of power, losing power means death. That incentivises a dictator on the edge to take risks that otherwise make no sense because even a minute chance of success is worth it. In the context of a Russian revolution, this animates concerns around our species' first nuclear civil war.

le-mark 3y ago

> The most likely answer for what is going on here is the one right on the surface. Prigozhin realized that he could try to take Moscow, but he'd ultimately be defeated I think this coupled with the military didn’t seem to come over to his side in large enough numbers quickly enough indicated it was going to be a real fight, and not a one or two day affair. Otherwise, yes, Progozhin is a dead man walking.

senectus1 3y ago

I'm pretty sure he was very angry about the friendly fire on his camps by MoD forces..

fractaled 3y ago
IMO the friendly fire on his camp was a cover/false flag to begin the "march for justice". The coordination/speed his coup attempt had couldn't be set up in such a short amount of time (since the "friendly fire" incident), so it was planned for at least a few weeks.
- senectus1 3y ago
  Fair call. it was a VERY fast mobilisation and trip up the road.

rewmie 3y ago

> It would also drag units away from Ukraine to deal with him and undermine Russian efforts in the face of the Ukrainian offensive. Prigozhin has been repeatedly casting doubt on the decision of attacking Ukraine for the past couple of weeks. He went as far as rejecting Russian propaganda on how Ukraine provoked it and stating that Ukraine only reacted to Russian's military presence. He even proceeded to pin the blame of this Russian quagmire on Putin and the Russian MoD. Before starting the military coup, Prigozhin laid the groundwork to pin Russia's invasion of Ukraine as betraying Russia by weakening it. Keeping Russia's armed forces in Ukraine was also critical for the success of his military coup. I don't think your scenario is plausible. There's something else in play.

literalis 3y ago

It was a huge miscalculation. Even Russians that hate Putin are not going to be comfortable with support for a coup from a private military. Peter Zeihan stated the obvious in a video on this that Wagner would have been decimated from the air on their way to Moscow too. I don't think you need to attend an Army war college to figure that out. Ultimately, someone crazy enough to build a giant private army is going to do crazy things. None of this seems good to me unless one is cheering for the doomsday clock to strike midnight.

foogazi 3y ago

> He acted without any political support and without having a bunch of aces up your sleeve Maybe trying to force flip some Aces - and when they didn’t come up he retreated > It was very likely just a rash miscalculation by Prigozhin Situation became untenable with MoD trying to enlist Private troops - reaction must have been anticipated How are things in regular army that they have to ingest Wagner contractors ?