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A little bit on what makes the sample return mission so hard: The crux of the matter is getting a fueled rocket onto Mars that can launch back into low Mars or
by idlewords 3y ago
A little bit on what makes the sample return mission so hard:
The crux of the matter is getting a fueled rocket onto Mars that can launch back into low Mars orbit and rendezvous there with a waiting satellite. The size and weight of this return rocket is itself constrained by its ability to fit into an aeroshell and survive entry and landing without breaking. You quickly get into a regime where you're trying to land the heaviest thing ever attempted on Mars, which makes the landing conditions harder so the rocket has to be sturdier, which makes the landing vehicle heavier, and so on.
The Martian atmosphere gets you both coming and going. On the descent, it is thick enough to make supersonic retropropulsion very complicated and potentially unstable, but too thin to slow a really massive re-entry vehicle down sufficiently with parachutes. You end up having to fire rockets that kick up a lot of rocks and dust during the very last seconds of the landing, while at the same time relying on your onboard computer to find a safe landing spot.
On the ascent, the atmosphere is thick enough that you have to deviate from the most efficient launch trajectory and worry about aerodynamic forces on the ascent rocket. Because of the atmosphere, the launch rocket has to be staged, which makes it bigger and heavier than you'd ideally want. And you can't use the most efficient cryogenic fuel, because there's no way to keep it from boiling off on the long trip over to Mars and down.
There are also non-obvious couplings between the lander and the ascent rocket, like center of gravity issues when you pack the rocket into the aeroshell, the question of how to get the samples into the rocket and point it up, and constraints on the design imposed by the hard conditions of atmospheric entry (15G acceleration) and the low surface temperatures.
None of these problems are insurmountable, but they are thorny enough and interwoven enough that it's very easy to see how the price tag climbs into the billions, even before you factor in organizational dysfunction and inefficiencies at NASA. The fact that it has to work on the first try (since political factors rule out trying it piecemeal) is also a huge cost driver.
There's a great paper that goes into some of these challenges in detail: "Drivers, developments and options under consideration for a Mars ascent vehicle", DOI 10.1109/AERO.2016.7500822
- Veedrac 3y agoMass to space is a little expensive but not that expensive. NASA's refusal to just fly more payloads and join or coordinate them in space is a political one moreso than technical, and if they took the opportunity to get more payload mass they could stop worrying about minor mass margin issues. The very obvious price comparison here is that Mars Sample Return has a price tag meaningfully bigger than the two winning HLS bids combined, including demonstration missions. Yes, the moon is closer, but also HLS is moving living humans, not small rocks.
- idlewords 3y agoYou don't seem to understand the constraint here, which is getting the mass of a rocket capable of reaching orbit down to Mars intact through an atmosphere. You can fly all the payloads you want without getting any closer to solving that problem. Sample return would be hard and expensive even if launches from Earth were free.
- Veedrac 3y agoNo, the point is that this constraint is dominantly a mass margin issue, and if NASA wasn't politically handicapped their mass margin would look very different.
- idlewords 3y agoSay I can send 1000 metric tons to Mars for a million bucks. How does that solve the problem of safely landing a heavy rocket on the surface?
- Veedrac 3y agoNASA was broadly happy with technical feasibility for Red Dragon, which pretty much just repurposed Dragon 2's biprop abort motors to land >1 ton on Mars for their estimate of $150-190m/launch. They didn't go forward with it, but this was early 2010s so that's not much surprise. With infinite mass in Mars orbit, you'd presumably want to scale up, but while this marginally hurts aerobraking performance, you have vastly more mass margin to just bring a bit more propellant. If course, you'd probably still want to land something in scope of what you can launch from Earth dry in one flight, but for sure we're still talking >5 tons there, probably more like 10.