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I think that would be extremely risky and therefore unlikely. If the CIA was behind this and this coup fails and it can be proven, it would legitimize the use o
by microtonal 3y ago
I think that would be extremely risky and therefore unlikely. If the CIA was behind this and this coup fails and it can be proven, it would legitimize the use of nukes following the Russian doctrine. That doesn't mean that Russia would use them, but it would be a significant escalation on the nuclear ladder. Also not something that is really in line with the signalling of the US, which shows acute awareness that everyone loses in a nuclear tit for tat.
It's more likely that Prigozhin: wanted to topple military leadership, but Putin chose their side, so he has no other option to go after Putin; sees a window of opportunity to topple Putin and replace him; or is simply paid by a higher bidder.
- andix 3y agoI think they have a lot of practice to do work without being seen.
- pessimizer 3y agoI'm afraid that Russia could nuke Ukraine just to remove a front and focus all its attention on Wagner.
- microtonal 3y agoI am no expert, but I don't think that is likely. It would isolate Russia from China and India. But even if the leadership only thinks short-term, Biden has made it pretty clear that that the use of nukes in Ukrain would not be acceptable and that there would be a non-nuclear response. The speculation is the US would wipe out the Russian black sea fleet. Putin would open a third front besides Ukraine and Prigozhin. That is probably the last thing he could use at this moment. That said, in such unstable situations pretty much anything can happen. It depends on how rational the actors stay.