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What is the state of decentralized betting platforms where people can place crypto on their predictions? Shouldn't that give us the best possible predictions?
by TekMol 3y ago
What is the state of decentralized betting platforms where people can place crypto on their predictions?
Shouldn't that give us the best possible predictions? Everybody with expertise or inside knowledge who sees the probabilities are off would rush in, place bets and "correct" the probabilities while making a profit.
- 55555 3y agoThe people who have legitimate inside information are billionaires and I doubt the market would be that deep. And it's a genuine coup, so the outcome is fundamentally unknowable. But yeah, historically prediction markets are great for stuff like this.
- PartiallyTyped 3y agoAs of 11:05 cest, 2023-06-24, manifold thinks Russia will curb wagner group, and reaching moscow is at 10%. It id considered a serious attempt (95%). Expect a civil war by July 14 (70%).
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- shusaku 3y agoMetaculus has regime change at 16% right now: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10246/russian-coup-or-regime-change-by-2024/ https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10246/russian-coup-or-re...
- jacquesm 3y agoup 3% in one hour
- stavros 3y agoThis sounds like a "length of the emperor's nose" situation.
- foverzar 3y agoCame here to ask the same question.