4 ms·
First, it did way less than 50 dives. I'm finding it really hard to find any solid numbers, but I've only found reference to only 3 or 4 previous dives to the T
by phire 3y ago
First, it did way less than 50 dives. I'm finding it really hard to find any solid numbers, but I've only found reference to only 3 or 4 previous dives to the Titanic, a test dive and a few dives to much shallower depths. That would put the failure rate for dives to this depth closer to 20%.
Second, the space shuttle never carried any paying passengers.
I'm very much of the opinion that the second you start accepting paying passengers, the safety standards should massively go up. Consumers have an expectation that if a company is offering a service to the general public, that service will meet a minimum level of safety. Companies shouldn't be able to hide behind liability wavers (well, not for a ~2% risk and absolutely not for a 20% risk) as even with a waver explictly stating death is an option, they will under estimate it.
Third, NASA engineers actually quantified the risk all the way back in the design stage and had it at ~2%, remarkably accurate in retrospect. NASA decided that was an acceptable level of risk for their mission profile and went ahead (it would have been way safer if the air force hadn't put insane mission profiles on it)
With everything we now know, there is no way in hell that OceanGate had any level of risk calculation. They were denying any risk at all, asserting that their real-time monitoring procedures would catch any failures before they became critical.
- nocoiner 3y agoThe space shuttle carried politicians, though! The mission that landed right before Challenger carried the now-administrator of NASA and then Florida Congressman Bill Nelson. They also took up a republican rep or senator from Utah (where the SRBs were built). That’s pretty much the NASA equivalent of “paying customers.” I actually don’t disagree with your point at all, it’s just funny to look back at the teacher in space and who preceeded McAuliffe and who would have been next if Challenger hadn’t blown up (probably Walter Cronkite or Dan Rather).
- stickfigure 3y agoAnd let's not forget the 77-year-old Senator John Glenn!
- nocoiner 3y agoHow could I forget! I watched that one live in high school. I also was present for the launch of Discovery’s return to space in ‘88.
- stickfigure 3y agoKeep in mind that previous trips to the Titanic involved multiple dives. According to https://metro.co.uk/2023/06/22/how-many-times-has-the-titan-gone-to-the-titanic-and-how-deep-is-the-wreck-18994926/ https://metro.co.uk/2023/06/22/how-many-times-has-the-titan-... "OceanGate has stated that the Titan completed over 50 test dives, including to depths similar to those of the Titanic, both in waters around the Bahamas as well as in a pressure chamber." Other articles mention 200 dives among three subs. So overall it's hard to know exactly. I don't see what paying passengers have to do with it. If you could get a space shuttle ride for a few thousand bucks, half of HN would put nonrefundable deposits in today and happily accept a 2% risk of death. I think the real difference is that more people romanticize space than the deep ocean. That's fine, but don't be smug about it.
- philistine 3y agoWhy are you equating going to space and going to an old crummy boat. One's way cooler and attractive than the other. They're not the same at all.