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The root cause of inadequate demand for commercial real estate is a combination of WFH skyrocketing during Covid and rising interest rates and the resulting mas

The root cause of inadequate demand for commercial real estate is a combination of WFH skyrocketing during Covid and rising interest rates and the resulting mass layoffs. How the city government of San Francisco caused Covid or rising interest rates I'll never know. > What you're seeing isn't a market failure it's a correction. When a "correction" is big enough to disrupt an entire city's economy, you can go ahead and call it a failure. Either way, it's exactly the job of government to mitigate the impact of these corrections/failures.

Ancalagon 3y ago
If it wasn't a failure - why are other major downtowns succeeding with their revivals while SF is not?
- toomuchtodo 3y ago
  Have you seen Louis Rossman’s collection of YouTube videos of block after block of unoccupied Manhattan real estate because of unrealistic asking prices? https://youtube.com/watch?v=2Trz65P1gnA https://youtube.com/watch?v=2Trz65P1gnA https://youtube.com/watch?v=1Yv1jx5I9TE https://youtube.com/watch?v=1Yv1jx5I9TE Also: https://www.connectcre.com/stories/u-s-office-pricing-not-expected-to-recover-until-2040/ https://www.connectcre.com/stories/u-s-office-pricing-not-ex... (U.S. Office Pricing Not Expected to Recover Until 2040) > U.S. office buildings are unlikely to regain their peak pre-pandemic values until at least 2040 as demand for desk space weakens, Bloomberg News reported, citing a forecast by Capital Economics. Values are expected to plunge 35% from the peak by the end of 2025 and take 15 years or more to recover as hybrid and remote work reshape real estate, acccording to London-based Capitol Economics. > “Demolitions and conversions of the worst assets may partially counteract the impact on valuation-based indices,” economist Kiran Raichura wrote. “But ultimately landlords will have to bear those costs, so the road ahead for office owners is set to be an arduous one.” > Major institutional investors, including Brookfield and Blackstone, have defaulted on some office buildings, choosing to stop loan payments rather than spend more on money-losing properties, Bloomberg reported. It’s estimated that office buildings account for $43 billion of $64 billion in potentially distressed assets. Other major downtowns (and tangentially, mass transit systems) are in peril, but just as you don’t have to outrun the bear, just your slowest friend, SF is bearing the brunt of it.
hanszarkov 3y ago
None of these are unique to San Francisco

Ancalagon 3y ago

If it wasn't a failure - why are other major downtowns succeeding with their revivals while SF is not?

toomuchtodo 3y ago
Have you seen Louis Rossman’s collection of YouTube videos of block after block of unoccupied Manhattan real estate because of unrealistic asking prices? https://youtube.com/watch?v=2Trz65P1gnA https://youtube.com/watch?v=2Trz65P1gnA https://youtube.com/watch?v=1Yv1jx5I9TE https://youtube.com/watch?v=1Yv1jx5I9TE Also: https://www.connectcre.com/stories/u-s-office-pricing-not-expected-to-recover-until-2040/ https://www.connectcre.com/stories/u-s-office-pricing-not-ex... (U.S. Office Pricing Not Expected to Recover Until 2040) > U.S. office buildings are unlikely to regain their peak pre-pandemic values until at least 2040 as demand for desk space weakens, Bloomberg News reported, citing a forecast by Capital Economics. Values are expected to plunge 35% from the peak by the end of 2025 and take 15 years or more to recover as hybrid and remote work reshape real estate, acccording to London-based Capitol Economics. > “Demolitions and conversions of the worst assets may partially counteract the impact on valuation-based indices,” economist Kiran Raichura wrote. “But ultimately landlords will have to bear those costs, so the road ahead for office owners is set to be an arduous one.” > Major institutional investors, including Brookfield and Blackstone, have defaulted on some office buildings, choosing to stop loan payments rather than spend more on money-losing properties, Bloomberg reported. It’s estimated that office buildings account for $43 billion of $64 billion in potentially distressed assets. Other major downtowns (and tangentially, mass transit systems) are in peril, but just as you don’t have to outrun the bear, just your slowest friend, SF is bearing the brunt of it.

hanszarkov 3y ago

None of these are unique to San Francisco