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> My gut feeling is that transmission lines would still be cheaper Transmission lines are great for moving electricity, but only if there's demand for that ele

by SmooL 3y ago

> My gut feeling is that transmission lines would still be cheaper Transmission lines are great for moving electricity, but only if there's demand for that electricity _right now_. Otherwise, you have to store it - which is a problem, because battery tech right now isn't great (or rather, it's not good enough for grid-scale requirements) . This iron powder could be thought of as a "battery". It might be harder to move than compared to a transmission line, but it's _stored_ energy and can be redeemed at a later time.

rootusrootus 3y ago
> not good enough for grid-scale requirements Is that still true? Aren't there a number of very successful grid battery installations now? And given the steady decline in battery costs, it ought to just get better and better.
- dgacmu 3y ago
  Batteries are amazing for short term supply / grid stabilization. They can supply massive current on very short notice. But the cost per kilowatt hour is still painfully high if we're talking about more than a handful of hours. Fortunately, it's still headed downward.
- xyzzyz 3y ago
  There are successful grid battery installations, but as far as I know, there are no grid-scale battery installations. Existing installations have really small capacity, and are only used for things like demand smoothing. The only energy storage solution deployed at scale is pumped hydro storage.
  - gpm 3y ago
    For anyone wondering List of pumped-storage hydroelectric power stations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_pumped-storage_hydroelectric_power_stations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_pumped-storage_hydroel... List of (non-hydro) energy storage power plants https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_energy_storage_power_plants https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_energy_storage_power_p... Largest battery plants in particular: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battery_storage_power_station#Largest_grid_batteries https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battery_storage_power_station#... "Really small capacity" here apparently means "roughly 4 hours of discharging as fast as possible".
cogman10 3y ago
> or rather, it’s not good enough for grid-scale requirements I disagree with this point. LFP batteries are cheap, high density, and have huge cycle life. The big drawback of LFPs is manufacturing is just starting to ramp up on them. That is, they aren’t available. LFPs just came out of patent protection last year and you are already starting to see them everywhere. The biggest problem with LFPs today is demand is outstripping supply.
- baybal2 3y ago
  [dead]
- concordDance 3y ago
  Got any numbers here?
  - cogman10 3y ago
    For LFPs at the moment we are looking at 100->150/kwh of storage. [1] Cycle life is around 3000->10000 cycles depending on how deep the cycles are (more shallow cycles, longer battery life). [2] Note: Cycle life is about how long it takes for a battery to lose 20% of it’s capacity. That doesn’t mean you can’t still use it. [1] https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/the-ev-battery-chemistry-debate-just-got-more-complicated https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/the-ev-battery-chemistr... [2] https://www.powertechsystems.eu/home/tech-corner/lithium-iron-phosphate-lifepo4/ https://www.powertechsystems.eu/home/tech-corner/lithium-iro...
  - Retric 3y ago
    They’re cheap enough for EV’s, but the big number here is you can get 10,000+ charge/discharge cycles. Predictions are near term ~2c/kWh grid storage looks realistic which completely changes the economics of the electricity grid. (As in whatever you pay for the electricity to charge the batteries you need to charge 2 more cents/kWh at discharge to break even.) Pair with renewables and not only is nuclear and coal looking obsolete but even natural gas is uneconomical at current prices. Of course the economy reacts as you start to bring this stuff online which means wholesale natural gas prices could fall quite a bit etc. You also need enough wind/solar/hydro to actually charge the batteries, but that doesn’t seem to be an issue either.
hankman86 3y ago
But isn’t that the point of transmission lines - match supply and demand? Given a large enough region, there is going to be a place where renewable electricity can be produced. Case in point being offshore wind turbines where there are almost always strong winds to spin these. Moving this electricity to where it is consumed is a huge issue though. Existing power grids were created with centralised power stations in mind, which are usually located close to where the electricity will be needed.
- SmooL 3y ago
  Yes, but transmission lines can only go so far, and you still lack the ability to arbitrage over time instead of just spatially. E.g. from a solar power POV, it's night everywhere in a given region at the same time.
  - ben_w 3y ago
    What do you believe the limits are to transmission lines?
- DennisP 3y ago
  In the US we're especially bad at building new long-distance transmission. Some projects have languished for decades. There are probably other places where it's difficult to get that large-enough region, for geographic or geopolitical reasons.
bradknowles 3y ago
You can use those transmission lines to move the energy to a facility where it would then be stored. In fact, you have to use some sort of transmission lines to get energy to those locations, otherwise you have no way to get energy to or from them. Even if they have local power generation, you still have to use transmission lines to get that power out.

by SmooL 3y ago

rootusrootus 3y ago

> not good enough for grid-scale requirements Is that still true? Aren't there a number of very successful grid battery installations now? And given the steady decline in battery costs, it ought to just get better and better.

dgacmu 3y ago
Batteries are amazing for short term supply / grid stabilization. They can supply massive current on very short notice. But the cost per kilowatt hour is still painfully high if we're talking about more than a handful of hours. Fortunately, it's still headed downward.
xyzzyz 3y ago
There are successful grid battery installations, but as far as I know, there are no grid-scale battery installations. Existing installations have really small capacity, and are only used for things like demand smoothing. The only energy storage solution deployed at scale is pumped hydro storage.
- gpm 3y ago
  For anyone wondering List of pumped-storage hydroelectric power stations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_pumped-storage_hydroelectric_power_stations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_pumped-storage_hydroel... List of (non-hydro) energy storage power plants https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_energy_storage_power_plants https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_energy_storage_power_p... Largest battery plants in particular: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battery_storage_power_station#Largest_grid_batteries https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battery_storage_power_station#... "Really small capacity" here apparently means "roughly 4 hours of discharging as fast as possible".

cogman10 3y ago

> or rather, it’s not good enough for grid-scale requirements I disagree with this point. LFP batteries are cheap, high density, and have huge cycle life. The big drawback of LFPs is manufacturing is just starting to ramp up on them. That is, they aren’t available. LFPs just came out of patent protection last year and you are already starting to see them everywhere. The biggest problem with LFPs today is demand is outstripping supply.

baybal2 3y ago
[dead]
concordDance 3y ago
Got any numbers here?
- cogman10 3y ago
  For LFPs at the moment we are looking at 100->150/kwh of storage. [1] Cycle life is around 3000->10000 cycles depending on how deep the cycles are (more shallow cycles, longer battery life). [2] Note: Cycle life is about how long it takes for a battery to lose 20% of it’s capacity. That doesn’t mean you can’t still use it. [1] https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/the-ev-battery-chemistry-debate-just-got-more-complicated https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/the-ev-battery-chemistr... [2] https://www.powertechsystems.eu/home/tech-corner/lithium-iron-phosphate-lifepo4/ https://www.powertechsystems.eu/home/tech-corner/lithium-iro...
- Retric 3y ago
  They’re cheap enough for EV’s, but the big number here is you can get 10,000+ charge/discharge cycles. Predictions are near term ~2c/kWh grid storage looks realistic which completely changes the economics of the electricity grid. (As in whatever you pay for the electricity to charge the batteries you need to charge 2 more cents/kWh at discharge to break even.) Pair with renewables and not only is nuclear and coal looking obsolete but even natural gas is uneconomical at current prices. Of course the economy reacts as you start to bring this stuff online which means wholesale natural gas prices could fall quite a bit etc. You also need enough wind/solar/hydro to actually charge the batteries, but that doesn’t seem to be an issue either.

hankman86 3y ago

But isn’t that the point of transmission lines - match supply and demand? Given a large enough region, there is going to be a place where renewable electricity can be produced. Case in point being offshore wind turbines where there are almost always strong winds to spin these. Moving this electricity to where it is consumed is a huge issue though. Existing power grids were created with centralised power stations in mind, which are usually located close to where the electricity will be needed.

SmooL 3y ago
Yes, but transmission lines can only go so far, and you still lack the ability to arbitrage over time instead of just spatially. E.g. from a solar power POV, it's night everywhere in a given region at the same time.
- ben_w 3y ago
  What do you believe the limits are to transmission lines?
DennisP 3y ago
In the US we're especially bad at building new long-distance transmission. Some projects have languished for decades. There are probably other places where it's difficult to get that large-enough region, for geographic or geopolitical reasons.

bradknowles 3y ago

You can use those transmission lines to move the energy to a facility where it would then be stored. In fact, you have to use some sort of transmission lines to get energy to those locations, otherwise you have no way to get energy to or from them. Even if they have local power generation, you still have to use transmission lines to get that power out.