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The whole article smells like bad science. Just looking at the first plot, you can immediately see something is off. LOESS CIs are a bit tricky, but here either
by sigmoid10 3y ago
The whole article smells like bad science. Just looking at the first plot, you can immediately see something is off. LOESS CIs are a bit tricky, but here either the model is completely wrong or the CI calculation is. So the trend is definitely not as significant as they make it out to be. A realistic 95% CI would look like this: https://james-brennan.github.io/img/lowess1_22_1.png https://james-brennan.github.io/img/lowess1_22_1.png
- delib 3y agoThe CI is for the mean, not for the entire data. This is the difference between a confidence and a prediction interval: https://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/225652/prediction-interval-vs-confidence-interval-in-linear-regression-analysis https://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/225652/prediction-... I do agree that it's fairly noisy though.