4 ms·

If the rate of price-decline of DNA sequencing is any referece: it took 14 years for the price of that to be devided by 100.000. So 3,5M USD cost now would be

If the rate of price-decline of DNA sequencing is any referece: it took 14 years for the price of that to be devided by 100.000. So 3,5M USD cost now would be 35 USD in 14 years (not taking into account any hyperinflation that I think is likely in that same time-frame).

light_hue_1 3y ago
The cost has nothing to do with the cost of sequencing DNA. DMD is extremely rare and expensive. The gene therapy itself is very cheap. The cost of the drug is entirely due to the value it provides. The company is already talking about upping the price to $12 million.
- throwaway2037 3y ago
  To be fair, research isn't free. If the total addressable population of sick people is very tiny, then the fee needs to be enormous for each person. I am OK with some kind of rich gov't programme to negotiate and pay this fee. After R&D is paid for, plus some handsome profit, the fees can drop and we can export to developing countries.
  - light_hue_1 3y ago
    I'm not criticizing the cost at all. It's a deadly disease that ravages people's bodies and over a lifetime costs tens of millions. Even $12 million seems fair. Just pointing out that genetics getting cheaper has no effect here.
throwaway2037 3y ago
hyperinflation that I think is likely in that same time-frame What a laugh. Every time I see people talk about economics on HN, the level of discourse is so poor and uneducated. "[H]yperinflation" - you mean like Weimar Republic where people needed wheelbarrows of money to buy a loaf of bread? Forget it. It is the stuff of fantasy. You would have a constitutional crisis in any modern democracy before it got that far. Look at the Oil Crisis(es) in the 1970s. Inflation got so out of control that Central Banks needed to jack up rates to nearly 20%, but they won. No wheelbarrows of money. We had nothing even close since then. (Here it comes: "Oh, but this time is different!" No, it isn't. So many people forget what _some_ inflation feels like. It's been 30 YEARS without inflation over 1% in Japan and it has mentally stunted the economic thinking and planning for multiple generations.) If I could, I would sell "insurance" against hyperinflation all day long. Like taking candy from a baby; it would be such easy money. For example, write options on Fed Funds rate at 25%. You can pay me your option premium all you want.

light_hue_1 3y ago

The cost has nothing to do with the cost of sequencing DNA. DMD is extremely rare and expensive. The gene therapy itself is very cheap. The cost of the drug is entirely due to the value it provides. The company is already talking about upping the price to $12 million.

throwaway2037 3y ago
To be fair, research isn't free. If the total addressable population of sick people is very tiny, then the fee needs to be enormous for each person. I am OK with some kind of rich gov't programme to negotiate and pay this fee. After R&D is paid for, plus some handsome profit, the fees can drop and we can export to developing countries.
- light_hue_1 3y ago
  I'm not criticizing the cost at all. It's a deadly disease that ravages people's bodies and over a lifetime costs tens of millions. Even $12 million seems fair. Just pointing out that genetics getting cheaper has no effect here.

throwaway2037 3y ago

hyperinflation that I think is likely in that same time-frame What a laugh. Every time I see people talk about economics on HN, the level of discourse is so poor and uneducated. "[H]yperinflation" - you mean like Weimar Republic where people needed wheelbarrows of money to buy a loaf of bread? Forget it. It is the stuff of fantasy. You would have a constitutional crisis in any modern democracy before it got that far. Look at the Oil Crisis(es) in the 1970s. Inflation got so out of control that Central Banks needed to jack up rates to nearly 20%, but they won. No wheelbarrows of money. We had nothing even close since then. (Here it comes: "Oh, but this time is different!" No, it isn't. So many people forget what _some_ inflation feels like. It's been 30 YEARS without inflation over 1% in Japan and it has mentally stunted the economic thinking and planning for multiple generations.) If I could, I would sell "insurance" against hyperinflation all day long. Like taking candy from a baby; it would be such easy money. For example, write options on Fed Funds rate at 25%. You can pay me your option premium all you want.