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ok then, so in this example, explain me or give me some good ideas on how 15 million US drivers all of sudden being obsolete can find employment in all the fiel

ok then, so in this example, explain me or give me some good ideas on how 15 million US drivers all of sudden being obsolete can find employment in all the fields that self driving cars will create?

xxbondsxx 15y ago
This change won't happen overnight. It would take decades to change all the automobiles over to a new technology. They still drive cars from the 1950's in Cuba! It's more like the cab driver's son won't also become a cab driver, he will have a different type of job. He will be more educated from online resources and most likely work in a field that has been expanded due to technology. You could even say that cab drivers themselves are benefactors of automobile technology. Their jobs would not exist without the internal combustion engine. But that invention consumed the jobs of rickshaw runners and horse buggy drivers.
- joering2 15y ago
  The reason behind driving a 1950's car in Cuba is the fact they don't break that often (otherwise they wouldn't be driven would they?) and most likely some weird Cuban embargos on new imports/production. I don't find this example helpful. I don't see a problem for a rickshaw runner or horse buggy driver becoming a truck driver or UPS delivery guy. They just changed the media that makes them possible to do their job. In this self driving cars scenario, we are replacing drivers with... noone! Unless, self driving cars will be breaking down so often and need so much maintenance that it will create a 15 million workers strong industry to fix or maintain those cars. But I highly doubt that. edit: other than that, talking only about employment numbers, I don't see how cleaner air or less traffic or getting 15 minutes earlier to work would help 15 million unemployed get the job/create new positions.
Turing_Machine 15y ago
This isn't going to happen overnight. It will take a decade or two under even the most optimistic projections. In 1790, ~90% of the U.S. population lived on farms. By 1900, it was down to 38%. Today, it's about 2%.
mikeash 15y ago
15 million US drivers won't all of a sudden become obsolete, any more than hundreds of thousands of airline pilots have suddenly become obsolete now that we can build reliable unmanned aircraft.
- joering2 15y ago
  I dont think you will fly an unmanned aircraft anytime soon. Heck, I don't think even if, arguendo, they would be available, I would still choose a living pilot! ok, I guess "all of sudden" means 24 months. how about that?
  - mikeash 15y ago
    The fact that I probably won't fly in an unmanned aircraft anytime soon rather supports my argument that these transitions don't happen overnight, no? 24 months is still way too quick. If and when driverless cars start being sold, I'd guess 10-20 years before they make up a solid majority of what's on the road.

ok then, so in this example, explain me or give me some good ideas on how 15 million US drivers all of sudden being obsolete can find employment in all the fields that self driving cars will create?

xxbondsxx 15y ago

This change won't happen overnight. It would take decades to change all the automobiles over to a new technology. They still drive cars from the 1950's in Cuba! It's more like the cab driver's son won't also become a cab driver, he will have a different type of job. He will be more educated from online resources and most likely work in a field that has been expanded due to technology. You could even say that cab drivers themselves are benefactors of automobile technology. Their jobs would not exist without the internal combustion engine. But that invention consumed the jobs of rickshaw runners and horse buggy drivers.

joering2 15y ago
The reason behind driving a 1950's car in Cuba is the fact they don't break that often (otherwise they wouldn't be driven would they?) and most likely some weird Cuban embargos on new imports/production. I don't find this example helpful. I don't see a problem for a rickshaw runner or horse buggy driver becoming a truck driver or UPS delivery guy. They just changed the media that makes them possible to do their job. In this self driving cars scenario, we are replacing drivers with... noone! Unless, self driving cars will be breaking down so often and need so much maintenance that it will create a 15 million workers strong industry to fix or maintain those cars. But I highly doubt that. edit: other than that, talking only about employment numbers, I don't see how cleaner air or less traffic or getting 15 minutes earlier to work would help 15 million unemployed get the job/create new positions.

Turing_Machine 15y ago

This isn't going to happen overnight. It will take a decade or two under even the most optimistic projections. In 1790, ~90% of the U.S. population lived on farms. By 1900, it was down to 38%. Today, it's about 2%.

mikeash 15y ago

15 million US drivers won't all of a sudden become obsolete, any more than hundreds of thousands of airline pilots have suddenly become obsolete now that we can build reliable unmanned aircraft.

joering2 15y ago
I dont think you will fly an unmanned aircraft anytime soon. Heck, I don't think even if, arguendo, they would be available, I would still choose a living pilot! ok, I guess "all of sudden" means 24 months. how about that?
- mikeash 15y ago
  The fact that I probably won't fly in an unmanned aircraft anytime soon rather supports my argument that these transitions don't happen overnight, no? 24 months is still way too quick. If and when driverless cars start being sold, I'd guess 10-20 years before they make up a solid majority of what's on the road.