Have you read Superforecasting? One conclusion they had was that very partisan thinkers, basically dogmatic, were the worst at predicting future events, and it

Have you read Superforecasting? One conclusion they had was that very partisan thinkers, basically dogmatic, were the worst at predicting future events, and it didn't matter what that dogma was. Liberal or conservative or anti big business or whatever. All of the really good forecasters were relentlessly fact based and spent a huge amount of time diving deeply into facts, and microfacts that supported facts. It sounded exhausting and one of the author's takeaways was "the world is enormously complex" and that most of us don't know anything about anything (hello gelman amnesia).