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These are all fantasies unmoored from reality. We already have algorithms that can perform reasoning better than humans, and faster than humans because they run

These are all fantasies unmoored from reality. We already have algorithms that can perform reasoning better than humans, and faster than humans because they run on computers. That is the result of the work on the Good, Old-Fashioned Artificial Intelligence that, according to the legend recounted by the article, our lord Hinton killed off, like St. George killed the dragon, when he invented back-propagation (to clarify: Hinton did; not st. George, or the dragon). For example we have algorithms for classical planning SAT-solving, constraint satisfaction and automated theorem proving, that far surpass any ability of human beings to perform the same tasks. Note that those are unquestionably and uncontroversially reasoning tasks and the systems that excel at them are also uncontroversially reasoning systems, much unlike LLMs for which the definition of "reasoning" has to be dilated so far that it loses all meaning. And yet, we have not been taken over by superintelligent AGI. And we will not be. We have no idea how to realise the fantasy of self-improving super-machine gods that Hinton and Bengio wish their systems to be capable of producingg. No. Idea.

TeMPOraL 3y ago
> For example we have algorithms for classical planning SAT-solving, constraint satisfaction and automated theorem proving, that far surpass any ability of human beings to perform the same tasks. Yes, and LLMs - particularly GPT-4 - can be easily made to make use of them. Much more so as of few days ago, when it got updated to a version fine-tuned specifically for using arbitrary tools. > And yet, we have not been taken over by superintelligent AGI. LLM performance jump that has everyone so anxious about AGI happened (in form of a deployed, accessible model) only less than a year ago. GPT-4 has only been generally available for 3 months. Give it time.
- YeGoblynQueenne 3y ago
  The only thing that GPT-4 achieved that earlier systems hadn't achieved was virality. It is not some magickal breakthrough and it is not even particularly powerful. As to the ability to use planners- this is the point at which the lady from Poker Face would be doing that thing with here eyes and blurting out "bullshit". Although I don't believe you're lying, just that you really have no idea what you're talking about.

TeMPOraL 3y ago

> For example we have algorithms for classical planning SAT-solving, constraint satisfaction and automated theorem proving, that far surpass any ability of human beings to perform the same tasks. Yes, and LLMs - particularly GPT-4 - can be easily made to make use of them. Much more so as of few days ago, when it got updated to a version fine-tuned specifically for using arbitrary tools. > And yet, we have not been taken over by superintelligent AGI. LLM performance jump that has everyone so anxious about AGI happened (in form of a deployed, accessible model) only less than a year ago. GPT-4 has only been generally available for 3 months. Give it time.

YeGoblynQueenne 3y ago
The only thing that GPT-4 achieved that earlier systems hadn't achieved was virality. It is not some magickal breakthrough and it is not even particularly powerful. As to the ability to use planners- this is the point at which the lady from Poker Face would be doing that thing with here eyes and blurting out "bullshit". Although I don't believe you're lying, just that you really have no idea what you're talking about.