The very first leaked Stratfor email I looked at just now (see below) seems to have the same level of detail and passionate debate that we Hackernews types get

The very first leaked Stratfor email I looked at just now (see below) seems to have the same level of detail and passionate debate that we Hackernews types get into when we're discussing crypto policy or the design of network protocols. I've never before read anything from Stratfor, and I was willing to accept the OP's assertion that they slap together public data, but seeing this one email makes me already doubt the OP. Do editors at The Atlantic and The Economist have intricate discussions about Medvedev vs Timoshenko to figure out Putin's actions? From: "Marc Lanthemann" To: "Alpha List" Sent: Wednesday, September 14, 2011 1:48:33 PM Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111 CODE: UA111 PUBLICATION: yes ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources in Kiev SOURCE DESCRIPTION: A senior pro-western diplomat in Kiev SOURCE RELIABILITY: B ITEM CREDIBILITY: B DISTRIBUTION: Alpha HANDLER: Lauren Yes, yes, the spat between Kiev and Moscow has been really fun to watch. But Yanukovich may be overstepping his bounds with the Kremlin if he keeps this up. He has already really ticked off Putina**who didna**t like him to begin with. You already pretty much know this storya**Putin never wanted Yanukovich in power without a counter-balance to keep him in check. Putin knew Yanukovich could win on his own, but wanted a super-majority in order to solidify the Kremlina**s meddling in Kiev. He wanted that to be Timoshenko, not because she is pro-Russian, but that she was the most easily bought out of all the top politicians. Of course, this is what got her in trouble and arrested. But Medvedev has never liked Timoshenko, mainly because she gave him no respect in any meeting and would only deal with Putin personally. Medvedev made the decision that Timoshenko cana**t be put into power, so he made a deal with Putin. Medvedev swore that he would keep Yanukovich in line if Putin dropped his support of Timoshenko. Putin agreed in return for being the one to draw up the list of new Ukrainians going into power in the SBU, military, ministries, etc. Also that Russia would get the base extension it had been pushing for. So when Timoshenko and Yanukovich showed up in Moscow at the end of 2009, the tandem broke the news to Yanukovich privately that they were willing to drop support for Timoshenko if he would agree to Putina**s list of demands. Yanukovich jumped all over it, naturally. Now that Yanukovich is acting out, Putin has snapped the leash on Medvedev to fix this. It is kind of a test for Medvedev. This is why the railing against Ukraine has come from Medvedev, not Putin. Question is which lever will Medvedev pull to get Yanukovich back in line. -- Lauren Goodrich Senior Eurasia Analyst STRATFOR T: 512.744.4311 F: 512.744.4334 lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com www.stratfor.com