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But what was that effect? If you don't determine the causality of Android phones' success, then its hard to apply it to Android tablets. For example, John Grube

But what was that effect? If you don't determine the causality of Android phones' success, then its hard to apply it to Android tablets. For example, John Gruber speculated today that the reason Android phones have been successful is that when people go to a carrier retail store to get a phone, they get handed an Android (not because they want an Android). Thus, the Android tablet market won't act similarly. Now, you might disagree with Gruber. That's perfectly reasonable. But his post is illustrative: if you can't state more clearly why Android phones have been successful, you can't state with confidence the same effect will apply to tablets. [1]http://daringfireball.net/linked/2012/02/27/android-tablets http://daringfireball.net/linked/2012/02/27/android-tablets

deleted 15y ago
[deleted]
dman 15y ago
Choice - a)Phone with keyboard b)One that will allow you to transfer music without a hefty itunes install c)Phone with a large screen d)Clamshell form factor e)Slider form factor f)Network effect - android phones are being sold in more places by a larger number of manufacturers. This has an effect in developing countries. g) Network effect #2 - Till the Iphone arrived on Verizon there were some customers who had no choice but to go Android because what good is an Iphone when you know your home gets lousy coverage from AT&T. Ditto for places where Sprint or T-Mobile have a better network. The mobile network is not completely commoditised - given a particular area usually there is a single network company that provides perceptibly better coverage h)Rate of change - something new is always launching which keeps the Android hype machine going
- acgourley 15y ago
  I don't think hardware choice helps android. The varied designs allow competition on price but that's a different effect. I think rate of change helps, but that's not really choice. I will concede I like android's customization and less locked down nature. That's kind of choice but more like freedom.
- MaxGabriel 15y ago
  Sure, but that only reinforces my point. If android phones sell because they have a large form factor or a physical keyboard, I can hardly see how that means Android tablets are going to take off. Maybe you're listing those things because you dont think the success of android phone will apply to tablets? I'm not convinced that android tablets won't, but it's fallacious to say they will because the phones did, without identifying why the cause will apply to both.
  - dman 15y ago
    I was merely trying to illustrate that there is more to android than customers being fleeced at brick and mortar stores. As for why Android tablets might have a chance - a) Part of what made the iPhone and the iPod touch such tough devices to compete against was the constraints imposed by the mobile form factor. Down at 600 Mhz on a 4 inch screen software efficiency and well designed software matter a lot more than on a 10 inch screen with a 1.6 Gig dual core chip with a large battery. b) Form factors - Unless a smaller Ipad comes in. c) Tablets are largely media consumption devices - either webpages, videos, music, pdfs etc. I dont reach out to my tablet the way I reach out to my phone to be my data connected interface in the real world. I switch it on when I have some time available and I would like to consume some media. At this point I find it easier to consume media on a Android device than I do on an iOS device ( dont need to transcode every single video out there ) and transferring files to the device is easy even on linux. Actually it would be interesting to hear from others if there are differences in app usage patterns between an ipad and an iphone of this is just a personal quirk on my part. d) 4G - Unless Apple jumps onboard. I forgot to mention this on my earlier post - I use my phone as a data modem all the time and once you are used to 4G speeds, its really hard to go back to 3G.
    - halostatue 15y ago
      a) Everything that I've heard about the various Android tablets suggests that despite being more "powerful" in absolute terms suggests that there's still sluggishness in a lot of user interaction. That's anecdotal, though. I would argue that well-designed software matters as much on a 10-inch screen as is does on a 3 1/2-inch screen. You can't simply scale a 3 1/2-inch UI to a 10-inch display. b) This is the only real advantage to Android tablets in the real world, but smaller tablets are what you claim in (c): they're consumption devices. c) Your use of tablets is as a media consumption device. That's not how the iPad is used (heard about Photoshop Touch?). It's also not necessary to transcode videos if you use tools like AirVideo. d) Apple will use "4G" (that is, LTE) when the economics (price, availability, and effect on battery life) make sense, just as they did with 3G. Personally, I'll take a little slower speed now for more battery life. Given what you've posted, I'd suggest stepping back a bit from your assumptions: they're very geek-oriented. Just because you have a lot of video you'd have to transcode doesn't mean that others do; just because you use your phone as a data modem all the time doesn't mean that others do. I'm quite often surprised at how people use their phones, and I don't think that the iPhone is the right choice for everyone. We as geeks need to start listening to how other people want their technology want to work for them.
- halostatue 15y ago
  a) In Canada, the choice for that seems to still be the Blackberry (edging out even the iPhone overall). b) …but requiring the purchase of a third-party utility to do so easily. (DoubleTwist, I've heard. I don't know as I don't have an Android phone.) c) Yes, Android is the platform that's decided to go the McDonald's Super Size Me route. This matters to some people, but I think there is a point of ridiculousness about this. d/e) I haven't seen any clamshell Android phones in any of the carrier stores, or on the carrier websites in Canada. I could just be missing them, but what's mostly sold for Android here are slabs and slider slabs (with the latter taking up a small number). f) I believe the network effect is much stronger with the iPhone. A colleague of my wife's asked his friends on Facebook what device he should get (asking between the Galaxy II and the Galaxy Nexus S, IIRC)—every single one of his friends said iPhone (I also said iPhone, but I was also able to speak to his use case). (Note as well that the network effect is stronger when you have fewer choices. You don't get choice burnout.) g) This is an American problem. Please remember that things are different in other countries. h) This also results in exhaustion and confusion. The aforementioned friend really didn't know the difference between the two Android devices. He'd settled on those two in all likelihood because they were (prior to the introduction of the Note) the most heavily promoted Android devices on the carriers in Canada. I would argue that there are only two possible advantages to Android tablets: a) Multiple form factors (size, convertability, etc.); b) Rate of change (this also has the downside mentioned above; no one will have a clue what to buy because there are too many variations and if they wait another week, someone else is going to release something Even Better Than The Last Android Tablet). OK. Strike that last. Real people will be confused by the various Android tablets and pick the iPad because it solves their perceived needs very quickly. Other tablet manufacturers need to figure out the single message that they're going to sell to customers—because what they're doing now isn't working and it won't work. If you sell a tablet on specs like you sold computers on specs, you've already lost the simplicity argument.
  - harph 15y ago
    b) ...no, I think he meant "connect to PC -> copy music -> play music"
    - 15y ago

deleted 15y ago

[deleted]

dman 15y ago

Choice - a)Phone with keyboard b)One that will allow you to transfer music without a hefty itunes install c)Phone with a large screen d)Clamshell form factor e)Slider form factor f)Network effect - android phones are being sold in more places by a larger number of manufacturers. This has an effect in developing countries. g) Network effect #2 - Till the Iphone arrived on Verizon there were some customers who had no choice but to go Android because what good is an Iphone when you know your home gets lousy coverage from AT&T. Ditto for places where Sprint or T-Mobile have a better network. The mobile network is not completely commoditised - given a particular area usually there is a single network company that provides perceptibly better coverage h)Rate of change - something new is always launching which keeps the Android hype machine going

acgourley 15y ago
I don't think hardware choice helps android. The varied designs allow competition on price but that's a different effect. I think rate of change helps, but that's not really choice. I will concede I like android's customization and less locked down nature. That's kind of choice but more like freedom.
MaxGabriel 15y ago
Sure, but that only reinforces my point. If android phones sell because they have a large form factor or a physical keyboard, I can hardly see how that means Android tablets are going to take off. Maybe you're listing those things because you dont think the success of android phone will apply to tablets? I'm not convinced that android tablets won't, but it's fallacious to say they will because the phones did, without identifying why the cause will apply to both.
- dman 15y ago
  I was merely trying to illustrate that there is more to android than customers being fleeced at brick and mortar stores. As for why Android tablets might have a chance - a) Part of what made the iPhone and the iPod touch such tough devices to compete against was the constraints imposed by the mobile form factor. Down at 600 Mhz on a 4 inch screen software efficiency and well designed software matter a lot more than on a 10 inch screen with a 1.6 Gig dual core chip with a large battery. b) Form factors - Unless a smaller Ipad comes in. c) Tablets are largely media consumption devices - either webpages, videos, music, pdfs etc. I dont reach out to my tablet the way I reach out to my phone to be my data connected interface in the real world. I switch it on when I have some time available and I would like to consume some media. At this point I find it easier to consume media on a Android device than I do on an iOS device ( dont need to transcode every single video out there ) and transferring files to the device is easy even on linux. Actually it would be interesting to hear from others if there are differences in app usage patterns between an ipad and an iphone of this is just a personal quirk on my part. d) 4G - Unless Apple jumps onboard. I forgot to mention this on my earlier post - I use my phone as a data modem all the time and once you are used to 4G speeds, its really hard to go back to 3G.
  - halostatue 15y ago
    a) Everything that I've heard about the various Android tablets suggests that despite being more "powerful" in absolute terms suggests that there's still sluggishness in a lot of user interaction. That's anecdotal, though. I would argue that well-designed software matters as much on a 10-inch screen as is does on a 3 1/2-inch screen. You can't simply scale a 3 1/2-inch UI to a 10-inch display. b) This is the only real advantage to Android tablets in the real world, but smaller tablets are what you claim in (c): they're consumption devices. c) Your use of tablets is as a media consumption device. That's not how the iPad is used (heard about Photoshop Touch?). It's also not necessary to transcode videos if you use tools like AirVideo. d) Apple will use "4G" (that is, LTE) when the economics (price, availability, and effect on battery life) make sense, just as they did with 3G. Personally, I'll take a little slower speed now for more battery life. Given what you've posted, I'd suggest stepping back a bit from your assumptions: they're very geek-oriented. Just because you have a lot of video you'd have to transcode doesn't mean that others do; just because you use your phone as a data modem all the time doesn't mean that others do. I'm quite often surprised at how people use their phones, and I don't think that the iPhone is the right choice for everyone. We as geeks need to start listening to how other people want their technology want to work for them.
halostatue 15y ago
a) In Canada, the choice for that seems to still be the Blackberry (edging out even the iPhone overall). b) …but requiring the purchase of a third-party utility to do so easily. (DoubleTwist, I've heard. I don't know as I don't have an Android phone.) c) Yes, Android is the platform that's decided to go the McDonald's Super Size Me route. This matters to some people, but I think there is a point of ridiculousness about this. d/e) I haven't seen any clamshell Android phones in any of the carrier stores, or on the carrier websites in Canada. I could just be missing them, but what's mostly sold for Android here are slabs and slider slabs (with the latter taking up a small number). f) I believe the network effect is much stronger with the iPhone. A colleague of my wife's asked his friends on Facebook what device he should get (asking between the Galaxy II and the Galaxy Nexus S, IIRC)—every single one of his friends said iPhone (I also said iPhone, but I was also able to speak to his use case). (Note as well that the network effect is stronger when you have fewer choices. You don't get choice burnout.) g) This is an American problem. Please remember that things are different in other countries. h) This also results in exhaustion and confusion. The aforementioned friend really didn't know the difference between the two Android devices. He'd settled on those two in all likelihood because they were (prior to the introduction of the Note) the most heavily promoted Android devices on the carriers in Canada. I would argue that there are only two possible advantages to Android tablets: a) Multiple form factors (size, convertability, etc.); b) Rate of change (this also has the downside mentioned above; no one will have a clue what to buy because there are too many variations and if they wait another week, someone else is going to release something Even Better Than The Last Android Tablet). OK. Strike that last. Real people will be confused by the various Android tablets and pick the iPad because it solves their perceived needs very quickly. Other tablet manufacturers need to figure out the single message that they're going to sell to customers—because what they're doing now isn't working and it won't work. If you sell a tablet on specs like you sold computers on specs, you've already lost the simplicity argument.
- harph 15y ago
  b) ...no, I think he meant "connect to PC -> copy music -> play music"
  - 15y ago