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The Android tablet situation today seems awfully similar to the Android phone situation a bit over two years ago. Remember 2009? iOS was ahead by a wide margin

The Android tablet situation today seems awfully similar to the Android phone situation a bit over two years ago. Remember 2009? iOS was ahead by a wide margin. The HTC Hero had just been released and Android was in that "this is cool, but could go either way" period. I remember considering buying the Hero but holding back, unsure whether the platform would take off. It did. I don't see any reason why we won't see the same effect with the tablet market. It's just a matter of time.

MaxGabriel 15y ago
But what was that effect? If you don't determine the causality of Android phones' success, then its hard to apply it to Android tablets. For example, John Gruber speculated today that the reason Android phones have been successful is that when people go to a carrier retail store to get a phone, they get handed an Android (not because they want an Android). Thus, the Android tablet market won't act similarly. Now, you might disagree with Gruber. That's perfectly reasonable. But his post is illustrative: if you can't state more clearly why Android phones have been successful, you can't state with confidence the same effect will apply to tablets. [1]http://daringfireball.net/linked/2012/02/27/android-tablets http://daringfireball.net/linked/2012/02/27/android-tablets
- deleted 15y ago
  [deleted]
- dman 15y ago
  Choice - a)Phone with keyboard b)One that will allow you to transfer music without a hefty itunes install c)Phone with a large screen d)Clamshell form factor e)Slider form factor f)Network effect - android phones are being sold in more places by a larger number of manufacturers. This has an effect in developing countries. g) Network effect #2 - Till the Iphone arrived on Verizon there were some customers who had no choice but to go Android because what good is an Iphone when you know your home gets lousy coverage from AT&T. Ditto for places where Sprint or T-Mobile have a better network. The mobile network is not completely commoditised - given a particular area usually there is a single network company that provides perceptibly better coverage h)Rate of change - something new is always launching which keeps the Android hype machine going
  - acgourley 15y ago
    I don't think hardware choice helps android. The varied designs allow competition on price but that's a different effect. I think rate of change helps, but that's not really choice. I will concede I like android's customization and less locked down nature. That's kind of choice but more like freedom.
  - MaxGabriel 15y ago
    Sure, but that only reinforces my point. If android phones sell because they have a large form factor or a physical keyboard, I can hardly see how that means Android tablets are going to take off. Maybe you're listing those things because you dont think the success of android phone will apply to tablets? I'm not convinced that android tablets won't, but it's fallacious to say they will because the phones did, without identifying why the cause will apply to both.
    - dman 15y ago
      I was merely trying to illustrate that there is more to android than customers being fleeced at brick and mortar stores. As for why Android tablets might have a chance - a) Part of what made the iPhone and the iPod touch such tough devices to compete against was the constraints imposed by the mobile form factor. Down at 600 Mhz on a 4 inch screen software efficiency and well designed software matter a lot more than on a 10 inch screen with a 1.6 Gig dual core chip with a large battery. b) Form factors - Unless a smaller Ipad comes in. c) Tablets are largely media consumption devices - either webpages, videos, music, pdfs etc. I dont reach out to my tablet the way I reach out to my phone to be my data connected interface in the real world. I switch it on when I have some time available and I would like to consume some media. At this point I find it easier to consume media on a Android device than I do on an iOS device ( dont need to transcode every single video out there ) and transferring files to the device is easy even on linux. Actually it would be interesting to hear from others if there are differences in app usage patterns between an ipad and an iphone of this is just a personal quirk on my part. d) 4G - Unless Apple jumps onboard. I forgot to mention this on my earlier post - I use my phone as a data modem all the time and once you are used to 4G speeds, its really hard to go back to 3G.
silvestrov 15y ago
"right now, the mobile carriers don’t matter nearly as much in the tablet space as they do in the smartphone space." http://parislemon.com/post/18390218572/winning-duh http://parislemon.com/post/18390218572/winning-duh Furthermore, the Android customers might think of their smartphone as just a phone and not care much about the "smart" part, whereas they want a standarized tablet which runs the same software as their friends' tablets. If you buy an iPad, you'll know that all of your software runs on the next iPad you buy. You don't do that with all the Android tablets, you don't even know if you can buy one with the same screen size next year. If I'm a company or school and I have to buy tablets and software and education of employees/teachers, I want to know that the tablets I buy in 2-3-4 years time will run the same software that I invest in today. So the iPad could get the same 'monopoly' as MS Windows had in the 90'ies.
latch 15y ago
Are you implying that Android phones are now "winning"? Apple makes over 75% of profits on smartphone sales and Android manufacturers are paying licensing fees to Microsoft. If your measurement of winning is market share, then, sure...but I think most people agree that's pretty meaningless (1) Furthermore, the more I think about it, the more I think Nokia+WP7 will be a big player in the emerging/low end market and could potentially pinch Android. So, I think it bodes poorly for Google if Android on tablet today is where Android on phones were a few years ago. (1) http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3555158 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3555158
- guelo 15y ago
  How does Apple's profits matter to anyone besides Apple? I'm sure if you asked users, developers or phone carriers they would define winning as selling more devices.
  - latch 15y ago
    Obviously it depends on how you ask the question. If you asked "The IPhone generated $3 billion for Apple, and Android generated $250 million for Google. Who's winning?" (random numbers). Also, if you look at the link that I provided, I don't know how you can be so "sure" that developers would agree with you. The point is that I'm not sure how my parent is defining "winning"...or, for that matter, how Rubin defines it..but the only way I can think of is market share, which, despite your assurances, is a silly metric.

MaxGabriel 15y ago

But what was that effect? If you don't determine the causality of Android phones' success, then its hard to apply it to Android tablets. For example, John Gruber speculated today that the reason Android phones have been successful is that when people go to a carrier retail store to get a phone, they get handed an Android (not because they want an Android). Thus, the Android tablet market won't act similarly. Now, you might disagree with Gruber. That's perfectly reasonable. But his post is illustrative: if you can't state more clearly why Android phones have been successful, you can't state with confidence the same effect will apply to tablets. [1]http://daringfireball.net/linked/2012/02/27/android-tablets http://daringfireball.net/linked/2012/02/27/android-tablets

deleted 15y ago
[deleted]
dman 15y ago
Choice - a)Phone with keyboard b)One that will allow you to transfer music without a hefty itunes install c)Phone with a large screen d)Clamshell form factor e)Slider form factor f)Network effect - android phones are being sold in more places by a larger number of manufacturers. This has an effect in developing countries. g) Network effect #2 - Till the Iphone arrived on Verizon there were some customers who had no choice but to go Android because what good is an Iphone when you know your home gets lousy coverage from AT&T. Ditto for places where Sprint or T-Mobile have a better network. The mobile network is not completely commoditised - given a particular area usually there is a single network company that provides perceptibly better coverage h)Rate of change - something new is always launching which keeps the Android hype machine going
- acgourley 15y ago
  I don't think hardware choice helps android. The varied designs allow competition on price but that's a different effect. I think rate of change helps, but that's not really choice. I will concede I like android's customization and less locked down nature. That's kind of choice but more like freedom.
- MaxGabriel 15y ago
  Sure, but that only reinforces my point. If android phones sell because they have a large form factor or a physical keyboard, I can hardly see how that means Android tablets are going to take off. Maybe you're listing those things because you dont think the success of android phone will apply to tablets? I'm not convinced that android tablets won't, but it's fallacious to say they will because the phones did, without identifying why the cause will apply to both.
  - dman 15y ago
    I was merely trying to illustrate that there is more to android than customers being fleeced at brick and mortar stores. As for why Android tablets might have a chance - a) Part of what made the iPhone and the iPod touch such tough devices to compete against was the constraints imposed by the mobile form factor. Down at 600 Mhz on a 4 inch screen software efficiency and well designed software matter a lot more than on a 10 inch screen with a 1.6 Gig dual core chip with a large battery. b) Form factors - Unless a smaller Ipad comes in. c) Tablets are largely media consumption devices - either webpages, videos, music, pdfs etc. I dont reach out to my tablet the way I reach out to my phone to be my data connected interface in the real world. I switch it on when I have some time available and I would like to consume some media. At this point I find it easier to consume media on a Android device than I do on an iOS device ( dont need to transcode every single video out there ) and transferring files to the device is easy even on linux. Actually it would be interesting to hear from others if there are differences in app usage patterns between an ipad and an iphone of this is just a personal quirk on my part. d) 4G - Unless Apple jumps onboard. I forgot to mention this on my earlier post - I use my phone as a data modem all the time and once you are used to 4G speeds, its really hard to go back to 3G.

silvestrov 15y ago

"right now, the mobile carriers don’t matter nearly as much in the tablet space as they do in the smartphone space." http://parislemon.com/post/18390218572/winning-duh http://parislemon.com/post/18390218572/winning-duh Furthermore, the Android customers might think of their smartphone as just a phone and not care much about the "smart" part, whereas they want a standarized tablet which runs the same software as their friends' tablets. If you buy an iPad, you'll know that all of your software runs on the next iPad you buy. You don't do that with all the Android tablets, you don't even know if you can buy one with the same screen size next year. If I'm a company or school and I have to buy tablets and software and education of employees/teachers, I want to know that the tablets I buy in 2-3-4 years time will run the same software that I invest in today. So the iPad could get the same 'monopoly' as MS Windows had in the 90'ies.

latch 15y ago

Are you implying that Android phones are now "winning"? Apple makes over 75% of profits on smartphone sales and Android manufacturers are paying licensing fees to Microsoft. If your measurement of winning is market share, then, sure...but I think most people agree that's pretty meaningless (1) Furthermore, the more I think about it, the more I think Nokia+WP7 will be a big player in the emerging/low end market and could potentially pinch Android. So, I think it bodes poorly for Google if Android on tablet today is where Android on phones were a few years ago. (1) http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3555158 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3555158

guelo 15y ago
How does Apple's profits matter to anyone besides Apple? I'm sure if you asked users, developers or phone carriers they would define winning as selling more devices.
- latch 15y ago
  Obviously it depends on how you ask the question. If you asked "The IPhone generated $3 billion for Apple, and Android generated $250 million for Google. Who's winning?" (random numbers). Also, if you look at the link that I provided, I don't know how you can be so "sure" that developers would agree with you. The point is that I'm not sure how my parent is defining "winning"...or, for that matter, how Rubin defines it..but the only way I can think of is market share, which, despite your assurances, is a silly metric.