5 ms·

Diapers is not a seasonal business. The problem with full automation is that your capacity has to be whatever peak load is - and peak load can be two orders of

Diapers is not a seasonal business. The problem with full automation is that your capacity has to be whatever peak load is - and peak load can be two orders of magnitude above your normal steady-state. That's a lot of robots sitting around doing nothing, whereas manual labor can be just as seasonal as the demand they are meant to fulfill.

ricardobeat 15y ago
Sounds like an opportunity for a standardized, flexible industrial robot platform geared towards rentals.
- rabidsnail 15y ago
  Why not go one step further and have elastic fulfillment centers? Nobody keeps inventory around for that long. Unless you're speculating on the future supply of a product you're only keeping stuff in stock for the buffer between when a whole palette comes in and when you need another one. So you can rent "fulfillment instances" as you need to order more inventory.
  - potatolicious 15y ago
    Combining my replies: > "Sounds like an opportunity for a standardized, flexible industrial robot platform geared towards rentals." This would work if different businesses have significantly different seasonalities - but on the aggregate in North America this is not true. Amazon gets the same Xmas rush as Wal-Mart, along with Target, Macy's, and whatnot. The number of businesses whose rush season is out of sync with Xmas is quite low. In fact, on the whole, retail basically rises and falls all at once throughout the year. > "Why not go one step further and have elastic fulfillment centers?" AFAIK Amazon already does this :) Look up "Fulfillment by Amazon".
    - marshallp 15y ago
      But with robots, you can probably get them to be cheaper even when taking into account seasonality. The real problem is that lots of manufacturers/wareshouses only keep a 3 year investment horizon. If they invested with a 10 year payoff, a lot more automation is possible. (It mirrors the problem in the economy as a whole - short termism)
      - potatolicious 15y ago
        > "But with robots, you can probably get them to be cheaper even when taking into account seasonality." I can't say much without violating some NDA or another, but I'd check that assumption. Industrial robotics are anything but cheap, and remember, you're stacking them up against near-minimum wage laborers who have little to no benefits and you only pay for them when they're utilized.
        dkersten 15y ago
        Why not combine the two? Robots all year round and then hire short term laborers for the seasonal peak times.
        potatolicious 15y ago
        Quite possible, and the hybrid approach is practiced quite widely - e.g., robot packing machines, robot sorting machines, etc. One big issue with hybrid approaches that require robots to run around warehouses is that humans are squishy and present a significant safety hazard that will also reduce efficiency. Much of a totally automated solution's appeal is the dramatic efficiency increase that comes from not having squishy humans on the playing field.
        vellum 15y ago
        You could make separate areas. One for the robots, one for the humans.
        moheeb 15y ago
        You mean have Robocop and Darth Vader stacking boxes?
    - rabidsnail 15y ago
      > AFAIK Amazon already does this :) Look up "Fulfillment by Amazon". So they do! It looks really expensive, though. Like more than $2 for a t-shirt. I wonder how that compares to doing it yourself at scale.
    - onemoreact 15y ago
      I don't think China, India, and the US have the same 'black Friday' so if you ship them at reasonable cost you can probably do some load balancing internationally.
  - mkramlich 15y ago
    > elastic fulfillment centers? with the obvious suggestion here that Amazon might be best-poised to get into this
- bigiain 15y ago
  Maybe, except presumably a lot of the "seasonal retail" stuff would require all the "spare" warehouse-picking-capable rental-robots at the same time. Unless you can make something generalized enough to do _other_ (profitable for the rental robot owners) tasks outside the BlackFriday/Xmas shopping season, you've still got the same problem (though more power to you if you can make that problem become the robot rental industry's problem instead of yours…)
- schiffern 15y ago
  That's exactly what Kiva does. http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20110614005178/en/Kiva-Systems-Launches-Robot-Rental-Program-Fulfillment http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20110614005178/en/Kiva...
roel_v 15y ago
Only if everybody has their own warehouse. Why would you want that though? It would be better to rent WaaS (Warehousing as a Service - you heard it here first folks) so that specialized companies can have warehouses build right next to the harbor the goods came in from, and spread load across many completely automated warehouses are required. In December store Santa hats, in July swimming trunks. As a seller you don't even need to care about capacity.
- suking 15y ago
  I think Amazon offers WaaS...?
  - mfieldhouse 15y ago
    Yep, this already exists and is called Fulfillment
- cdzombak 15y ago
  The article mentions that many of these companies are effectively WaaS companies, though they're called "third-party logistics contractors, a.k.a. 3PLs". From the article: "These companies often fulfill orders for more than one retailer out of a single warehouse. America's largest 3PL, Exel, has 86 million square feet of warehouse in North America..." DHL and UPS, among others, offers this service.

ricardobeat 15y ago

Sounds like an opportunity for a standardized, flexible industrial robot platform geared towards rentals.

rabidsnail 15y ago
Why not go one step further and have elastic fulfillment centers? Nobody keeps inventory around for that long. Unless you're speculating on the future supply of a product you're only keeping stuff in stock for the buffer between when a whole palette comes in and when you need another one. So you can rent "fulfillment instances" as you need to order more inventory.
- potatolicious 15y ago
  Combining my replies: > "Sounds like an opportunity for a standardized, flexible industrial robot platform geared towards rentals." This would work if different businesses have significantly different seasonalities - but on the aggregate in North America this is not true. Amazon gets the same Xmas rush as Wal-Mart, along with Target, Macy's, and whatnot. The number of businesses whose rush season is out of sync with Xmas is quite low. In fact, on the whole, retail basically rises and falls all at once throughout the year. > "Why not go one step further and have elastic fulfillment centers?" AFAIK Amazon already does this :) Look up "Fulfillment by Amazon".
  - marshallp 15y ago
    But with robots, you can probably get them to be cheaper even when taking into account seasonality. The real problem is that lots of manufacturers/wareshouses only keep a 3 year investment horizon. If they invested with a 10 year payoff, a lot more automation is possible. (It mirrors the problem in the economy as a whole - short termism)
    - potatolicious 15y ago
      > "But with robots, you can probably get them to be cheaper even when taking into account seasonality." I can't say much without violating some NDA or another, but I'd check that assumption. Industrial robotics are anything but cheap, and remember, you're stacking them up against near-minimum wage laborers who have little to no benefits and you only pay for them when they're utilized.
      - dkersten 15y ago
        Why not combine the two? Robots all year round and then hire short term laborers for the seasonal peak times.
        potatolicious 15y ago
        Quite possible, and the hybrid approach is practiced quite widely - e.g., robot packing machines, robot sorting machines, etc. One big issue with hybrid approaches that require robots to run around warehouses is that humans are squishy and present a significant safety hazard that will also reduce efficiency. Much of a totally automated solution's appeal is the dramatic efficiency increase that comes from not having squishy humans on the playing field.
        vellum 15y ago
        You could make separate areas. One for the robots, one for the humans.
        moheeb 15y ago
        You mean have Robocop and Darth Vader stacking boxes?
  - rabidsnail 15y ago
    > AFAIK Amazon already does this :) Look up "Fulfillment by Amazon". So they do! It looks really expensive, though. Like more than $2 for a t-shirt. I wonder how that compares to doing it yourself at scale.
  - onemoreact 15y ago
    I don't think China, India, and the US have the same 'black Friday' so if you ship them at reasonable cost you can probably do some load balancing internationally.
- mkramlich 15y ago
  > elastic fulfillment centers? with the obvious suggestion here that Amazon might be best-poised to get into this
bigiain 15y ago
Maybe, except presumably a lot of the "seasonal retail" stuff would require all the "spare" warehouse-picking-capable rental-robots at the same time. Unless you can make something generalized enough to do _other_ (profitable for the rental robot owners) tasks outside the BlackFriday/Xmas shopping season, you've still got the same problem (though more power to you if you can make that problem become the robot rental industry's problem instead of yours…)
schiffern 15y ago
That's exactly what Kiva does. http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20110614005178/en/Kiva-Systems-Launches-Robot-Rental-Program-Fulfillment http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20110614005178/en/Kiva...

roel_v 15y ago

Only if everybody has their own warehouse. Why would you want that though? It would be better to rent WaaS (Warehousing as a Service - you heard it here first folks) so that specialized companies can have warehouses build right next to the harbor the goods came in from, and spread load across many completely automated warehouses are required. In December store Santa hats, in July swimming trunks. As a seller you don't even need to care about capacity.

suking 15y ago
I think Amazon offers WaaS...?
- mfieldhouse 15y ago
  Yep, this already exists and is called Fulfillment
cdzombak 15y ago
The article mentions that many of these companies are effectively WaaS companies, though they're called "third-party logistics contractors, a.k.a. 3PLs". From the article: "These companies often fulfill orders for more than one retailer out of a single warehouse. America's largest 3PL, Exel, has 86 million square feet of warehouse in North America..." DHL and UPS, among others, offers this service.