> To me this seems like the same argument you're making - belief that a trend will continue until proven otherwise - but I don't find either of them very convin

> To me this seems like the same argument you're making - belief that a trend will continue until proven otherwise - but I don't find either of them very convincing. Barring a reasonable, coherent, and factually-supported explanation for why an existing trend might not continue, the existing trend continuing tends to be a reasonable default prediction.