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> 3. Bitcoin, which the SEC considers a commodity (it's explicitly excluded from the lawsuits), is bound to become even more dominant in terms of market capital

> 3. Bitcoin, which the SEC considers a commodity (it's explicitly excluded from the lawsuits), is bound to become even more dominant in terms of market capitalization. The longer Bitcoin survives, the more it will get adopted and integrated into the world's financial fabric, e.g., as a store of value. If this sounds far-fetched, consider that many smart and smart-sounding people have predicted Bitcoin's demise, and so far their arguments have been proven wrong: https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin-obituaries/ https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin-obituaries/ . I have not seen a single of use Bitcoin within 50km of me _and_ online outside of uses in degenerate countries and trading them for the sole purpose of trading them. This feels like flat-earth theory, which will never go away, but their "science" if you call it that, is so flawed that they can't be used for anything outside of small terrestrial physics. Similarly, Bitcoin itself will never go away. But there is no way the average folk will be able to wield them given how many times they have been scammed out of their fortune.

paulddraper 3y ago
Maybe. I don't see people using gold for finances within 50km of me, but it's going to be around forever.
- anon-3988 3y ago
  And? I am not advocating for gold either. Gold hinges on the fact that its yellow and nice to look at or whatever. It is entirely feasible for the world to be possessed by zeitgeist such that gold or anything yellow doesn't mean particularly much. This could happen, for example, if gold and diamonds can be manufactured artificially. What then?
  - paulddraper 3y ago
    Then it wouldn't be worth as much and its 10,000+ year run would be over. PS https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Rip_Van_Winkle_Caper https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Rip_Van_Winkle_Caper
  - TacticalCoder 3y ago
    Wait... Is it not that within our current understanding of physics gold can only be manufactured artificially from an already heavier metal? (which are already more expensive than gold I think). I don't know the details but, basically, it's not because we can manufacture synthetic diamonds that we'll one day be able to manufacture non-radioactive synthetic gold.
    - paulddraper 3y ago
      Gold can be created from heavier elements via fission or lighter elements via fusion. Either way, there's no foreseeable way either would ever be cost -effective
  - robobro 3y ago
    The value of gold is related to the amount of labor necessary to produce it as a commodity. Contrast with aluminum and iron -- because they are relatively plentiful, they take significantly less labor to produce as commodities.
- bandrami 3y ago
  OTOH there's a big and growing problem with gold exchanges, too, who often don't actually have possession of the metal they notionally sell. It's estimated total gold "holdings" by investors exceed the world gold supply by about 50%.
anonporridge 3y ago
If you wait until you start to notice it immediately around you, you'll already be a late adopter. That's ok though. Playing with new paradigms is a young person's game.

paulddraper 3y ago

Maybe. I don't see people using gold for finances within 50km of me, but it's going to be around forever.

anon-3988 3y ago
And? I am not advocating for gold either. Gold hinges on the fact that its yellow and nice to look at or whatever. It is entirely feasible for the world to be possessed by zeitgeist such that gold or anything yellow doesn't mean particularly much. This could happen, for example, if gold and diamonds can be manufactured artificially. What then?
- paulddraper 3y ago
  Then it wouldn't be worth as much and its 10,000+ year run would be over. PS https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Rip_Van_Winkle_Caper https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Rip_Van_Winkle_Caper
- TacticalCoder 3y ago
  Wait... Is it not that within our current understanding of physics gold can only be manufactured artificially from an already heavier metal? (which are already more expensive than gold I think). I don't know the details but, basically, it's not because we can manufacture synthetic diamonds that we'll one day be able to manufacture non-radioactive synthetic gold.
  - paulddraper 3y ago
    Gold can be created from heavier elements via fission or lighter elements via fusion. Either way, there's no foreseeable way either would ever be cost -effective
- robobro 3y ago
  The value of gold is related to the amount of labor necessary to produce it as a commodity. Contrast with aluminum and iron -- because they are relatively plentiful, they take significantly less labor to produce as commodities.
bandrami 3y ago
OTOH there's a big and growing problem with gold exchanges, too, who often don't actually have possession of the metal they notionally sell. It's estimated total gold "holdings" by investors exceed the world gold supply by about 50%.

anonporridge 3y ago

If you wait until you start to notice it immediately around you, you'll already be a late adopter. That's ok though. Playing with new paradigms is a young person's game.