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To me it looks more like the dotcom era than blockchain. Obviously there's a lot of hype and much of it will be vaporware, but I think there's also some really

To me it looks more like the dotcom era than blockchain. Obviously there's a lot of hype and much of it will be vaporware, but I think there's also some really good stuff that's here to stay. Might be hard to tell which is which if it turns into a bubble until it's over thought...

plorkyeran 3y ago
Yeah, I think dotcom era is a much better comparison. There is a lot of actual innovation happening and real products being built, but there's also a lot of companies slapping .com onto their names and pretending they're part of the new wave, and a lot of exciting new companies which don't actually have a business model. I think a lot of the current AI hype is wildly overblown, but there's zero chance that this all goes nowhere and had no lasting effect.
theptip 3y ago
Yeah that’s a good baseline. Though I think it’s pessimistic; quite frankly AI is going to be far more transformative than the internet. Anyone who thinks this is like blockchain should spend 10 hours coding with GPT-4, and then extrapolate those capabilities out a few years. It’s already adding a huge amount of value and productivity gain for me, though you need to know what to use it for.
teaearlgraycold 3y ago
Yeah this is more correct. There are already useful implementations of generative AI: * in/out painting with photo editing software * GitHub Copilot * voice synthesis * ChatGPT (not great for what a lot of people try to use it for, but I find it useful for brainstorming or as a conversational programming Copilot)
- Loic 3y ago
  Someone commented here somewhere that ChatGPT closed the gap between native and non native speakers. As a good non native German speaker, the ability to send a piece of text to a good LLM for review and correction is incredible. I do not need my wife to review the text I send to the tax authorities, the LLM is doing it for me (and I am good enough to critically assess the quality of the of the LLM work).
majormajor 3y ago
I like this comparison. A ton of dotcom-era stuff was "the same tech, applied to different industries" - that's actually common for a lot of cycles, by nature. And there are going to be winners and losers, but it's likely you have a lot of application-specific winners that emerge (vs JUST OpenAI/MS/whoever) as well as a fleet of also-rans. This also doesn't at all require ChatGPT to be the first step on a road to self-aware sentient AI or anything else like that - the tools being built today will already disrupt a lot of things enough to allow for new winners and losers.

plorkyeran 3y ago

Yeah, I think dotcom era is a much better comparison. There is a lot of actual innovation happening and real products being built, but there's also a lot of companies slapping .com onto their names and pretending they're part of the new wave, and a lot of exciting new companies which don't actually have a business model. I think a lot of the current AI hype is wildly overblown, but there's zero chance that this all goes nowhere and had no lasting effect.

theptip 3y ago

Yeah that’s a good baseline. Though I think it’s pessimistic; quite frankly AI is going to be far more transformative than the internet. Anyone who thinks this is like blockchain should spend 10 hours coding with GPT-4, and then extrapolate those capabilities out a few years. It’s already adding a huge amount of value and productivity gain for me, though you need to know what to use it for.

teaearlgraycold 3y ago

Yeah this is more correct. There are already useful implementations of generative AI: * in/out painting with photo editing software * GitHub Copilot * voice synthesis * ChatGPT (not great for what a lot of people try to use it for, but I find it useful for brainstorming or as a conversational programming Copilot)

Loic 3y ago
Someone commented here somewhere that ChatGPT closed the gap between native and non native speakers. As a good non native German speaker, the ability to send a piece of text to a good LLM for review and correction is incredible. I do not need my wife to review the text I send to the tax authorities, the LLM is doing it for me (and I am good enough to critically assess the quality of the of the LLM work).

majormajor 3y ago

I like this comparison. A ton of dotcom-era stuff was "the same tech, applied to different industries" - that's actually common for a lot of cycles, by nature. And there are going to be winners and losers, but it's likely you have a lot of application-specific winners that emerge (vs JUST OpenAI/MS/whoever) as well as a fleet of also-rans. This also doesn't at all require ChatGPT to be the first step on a road to self-aware sentient AI or anything else like that - the tools being built today will already disrupt a lot of things enough to allow for new winners and losers.